基于GIS及综合权重法的甘肃黄土高原区山洪灾害风险区划研究
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摘要
针对甘肃黄土高原区特殊地形地貌特点,通过对山洪灾害形成因素分析,确定将研究区的高程、坡度、汇流累积量、河网密度、年平均降雨量、1 h临界雨量、人口密度、耕地面积占比、人均GDP 9项指标作为山洪灾害主要影响因子,通过危险性和易损性分析建立山洪灾害风险区划模型,运用层次分析法及熵权法综合确定指标权重,利用Arc GIS软件进行空间插值和栅格图层计算完成山洪灾害风险区划图,结果表明:甘肃黄土高原区的山洪灾害风险区划指数按照从高到低划分为5个等级,从西北向东南呈明显递增的分布特征,高风险区主要分布在降雨较多的陇东黄土高原及西南部的临夏州一带、较高风险区主要分布在黄土高原的中南部、中风险区分布于黄土高原的中部一带、较低风险区和低危险区分布在黄土高原的西北部分县(区),最终通过65年历史山洪灾害验证分析,甘肃黄土高原区山洪灾害风险区划结果符合实际情况,可以为山洪灾害风险管理提供支撑。
Specific topography of the loess Plateau Region in Gansu is based on an analysis of the formation factors of torrential flood disaster.The nine factors include elevation,slope,accumulation volume,river net density,and average annual rainfall. One hour critical rainfall,population density,arable land area and per capita GDP of the study area determine the main influencing factors of torrential flood disasters.The risk zoning model of torrential flood disaster is set up by analyzing risk and vulnerability. The weight of each index was determined by the analytic hierarchy process. The spatial interpolation and raster layer of Arc GIS are used to calculate the risk regionalization of torrential flood disaster. It turns out that the comprehensive risk index of torrential flood disaster in the whole research area is divided into five grades and has the distribution characteristics of increasing from the northwest to the southeast. The high risk area is mainly distributed in Longdong Loess Plateau Area and the southwest of Linxia State,the higher risk areas are mainly distributed in the middle and south of the loess plateau,the middle area is located in the middle part of loess plateau. the lower risk area and the low danger area are distributed in the northwestern part of the loess plateau.And the frequency of 65 years historical torrential flood disasters has verified the results of the mountain flood disaster risk zoning in the loess plateau in line with the actual situation,so as to provide support for the risk management of torrential flood disaster.
Specific topography of the loess Plateau Region in Gansu is based on an analysis of the formation factors of torrential flood disaster.The nine factors include elevation,slope,accumulation volume,river net density,and average annual rainfall. One hour critical rainfall,population density,arable land area and per capita GDP of the study area determine the main influencing factors of torrential flood disasters.The risk zoning model of torrential flood disaster is set up by analyzing risk and vulnerability. The weight of each index was determined by the analytic hierarchy process. The spatial interpolation and raster layer of Arc GIS are used to calculate the risk regionalization of torrential flood disaster. It turns out that the comprehensive risk index of torrential flood disaster in the whole research area is divided into five grades and has the distribution characteristics of increasing from the northwest to the southeast. The high risk area is mainly distributed in Longdong Loess Plateau Area and the southwest of Linxia State,the higher risk areas are mainly distributed in the middle and south of the loess plateau,the middle area is located in the middle part of loess plateau. the lower risk area and the low danger area are distributed in the northwestern part of the loess plateau.And the frequency of 65 years historical torrential flood disasters has verified the results of the mountain flood disaster risk zoning in the loess plateau in line with the actual situation,so as to provide support for the risk management of torrential flood disaster.
引文
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[3]郝海,踪家峰.系统分析与评价方法[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007.
[4]张星.自然灾害灾情的熵权综合评价模型[J].自然灾害学报,2009,(6):189-192.
[5]牟乃夏,刘文宝.Arcgis10地理信息系统教程-从初学到精通[M].北京:测绘出版社,2012.
[6]焦立新.评价指标标准化处理方法的探讨[J].安徽农业技术师范大学学报,1999,13(3):7-10.
[7]岳琦,张林波.基于GIS的福建闽江上游山洪灾害风险区划[J].环境工程技术学报,2015,5(4):293-298.
[8]Department of Humanitarian Affairs,United Nations.Mitigating Natural Disasters:phenomena,Effects and Options:A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners[R].New York:United Nations,1991.
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[10]陈敏.基于GIS的山洪灾害空间分布预测研究--以四川省阿坝州金川县为例[D].成都:成都理工大学,2012.
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[12]李楠,任颖.基于GIS的山东暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(20):313-317.