投入产出网络中的关键产业
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摘要
随着经济协作日益密切,产业网络关联程度的加深,部门的生产变化会波及其上游和下游部门的生产,直接或间接地影响其他部门,进而对整体经济产生影响。从部门间投入产出网络的角度,衡量每个产业部门对于总产出波动的影响。通过直接消耗系数矩阵构建投入产出网络,研究部门冲击对总产出波动的影响。在构建的投入产出网络基础上,从对总产出波动影响大小的角度,刻画关键产业,其生产冲击对整个网络的产出波动影响最大。用我国2012年投入产出数据实证分析,发现批发、零售业和农产品业通过网络关联对总产出波动影响最大,可作为关键产业。
As economic cooperation becomes closer and industrial network becomes more connected, changes in sector production will affect the output of its upstream and downstream sectors, directly or indirectly affecting other sectors, and thereby affecting the overall economy. From the perspective of intersectoral input-output network, the influence of each sector on the aggregate volatility is measured. The input-output network is constructed by direct consumption coefficient matrix to study the role of sectoral shocks in the aggregate volatility. On the basis of the established input-output network, the key sectors are depicted from the perspective of the impact on the aggregate volatility, whose productivity shock has the greatest impact on the output volatility of the entire network. The empirical analysis of China?s 2012 input and output data shows that the wholesale and retail, agricultural product sectors have the greatest impact on the aggregate volatility through network linkages, which can be regarded as key sectors.
As economic cooperation becomes closer and industrial network becomes more connected, changes in sector production will affect the output of its upstream and downstream sectors, directly or indirectly affecting other sectors, and thereby affecting the overall economy. From the perspective of intersectoral input-output network, the influence of each sector on the aggregate volatility is measured. The input-output network is constructed by direct consumption coefficient matrix to study the role of sectoral shocks in the aggregate volatility. On the basis of the established input-output network, the key sectors are depicted from the perspective of the impact on the aggregate volatility, whose productivity shock has the greatest impact on the output volatility of the entire network. The empirical analysis of China?s 2012 input and output data shows that the wholesale and retail, agricultural product sectors have the greatest impact on the aggregate volatility through network linkages, which can be regarded as key sectors.
引文
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[14] 朱为华,刘凯,闫小勇,等.识别流网络关键节点的虚拟外界投入产出分析法[J].电子科技大学学报,2018,47(2):292-297.ZHU Weihua,LIU Kai,YAN Xiaoyong,et al.Identification of critical nodes in flow network by a virtual external input-output analysis[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2018,47(2):292-297.
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[17] 李乔.矩阵论八讲[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1988:71-105.LI Qiao.Eight lectures on matrix theory[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers,1988:71-105.
[18] BALLESTER C,CALVó-ARMENGOL A,ZENOU Y.Who?s who in networks-wanted:the key player[J].Econometrica,2006,74(5):1403-1417.
(1)an=Θ(bn)表示,正实数序列{an}和{bn},满足supn→∞an/bn<∞和infn→∞an/bn>0。
[2] AUGUSTINOVICS M.Methods of international and intertemporal comparison of structure[J].Contributions to Input-output Analysis,1970,1:249-269.
[3] JONES L P.The measurement of hirschmanian linkages[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1976,90(2):323.
[4] 刘起运.关于投入产出系数结构分析方法的研究[J].统计研究,2002,19(2):40-42.LIU Qiyun.The research on the method of structural analyses regarding the input-output coefficients[J].Statistical Research,2002,19(2):40-42.
[5] 杨灿,郑正喜.产业关联效应测度理论辨析[J].统计研究,2014,31(12):11-19.YANG Can,ZHENG Zhengxi.Analysis of the theoretical issues on the measurement of industrial linkage[J].Statistical Research,2014,31(12):11-19.
[6] 沈利生.重新审视传统的影响力系数公式:评影响力系数公式的两个缺陷[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(2):133-141.SHEN Lisheng.Revaluating traditional formula of influence power coefficient[J].The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2010,27(2):133-141.
[7] 贾传亮,胡发胜,孙颖.主成分分析法在产业关联度研究中的应用[J].运筹与管理,2006,15(2):73-76.JIA Chuanliang,HU Fasheng,SUN Ying.Application of principal component analysis to research of industrial relevancy [J].Operations Research and Management Science,2006,15(2):73-76.
[8] 魏勇强,乔彦芸.资源型地区主导产业选择研究:以山西省为例[J].改革与战略,2018,34(5):80-86.WEI Yongqiang,QIAO Yanyun.The choice of leading industry for resource rich region:from the perspective of Shanxi province[J].Reformation and Strategy,2018,34(5):80-86.
[9] GUO J,ZHANG Y J,ZHANG K B.The key sectors for energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction in China:evidence from the input-output method[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,179:180-190.
[10] OWEN A,SCOTT K,BARRETT J.Identifying critical supply chains and final products:an input-output approach to exploring the energy-water-food nexus[J].Applied Energy,2018,210:632-642.
[11] SCHULTZ S.Approaches to identifying key sectors empirically by means of input-output analysis[J].The Journal of Development Studies,1977,14(1):77-96.
[12] 黄素心,王春雷.产业部门重要性测算:基于假设抽取法的实证[J].统计与决策,2011,333(9):4-6.HUANG Suxin,WANG Chunlei.Measurement of industrial sector importance:empirical study based on hypothetical extraction method[J].Statistics and Decision,2011,333(9):4-6.
[13] 陈效珍,赵炳新.基于虚拟消去法(HEM)的产业关联修正影响系数研究[J].管理评论,2014,26(6):23-32.CHEN Xiaozhen,ZHAO Bingxin.Research on industry linkage correction influence coefficients based on hypothetical extraction method[J].Management Review,2014,26(6):23-32.
[14] 朱为华,刘凯,闫小勇,等.识别流网络关键节点的虚拟外界投入产出分析法[J].电子科技大学学报,2018,47(2):292-297.ZHU Weihua,LIU Kai,YAN Xiaoyong,et al.Identification of critical nodes in flow network by a virtual external input-output analysis[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2018,47(2):292-297.
[15] ACEMOGLU D,CARVALHO V M,OZDAGLAR A,et al.The network origins of aggregate fluctuations[J].Econometrica,2012,80(5):1977-2016.
[16] LUCAS R E Jr.Understanding business cycles[J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1977,5:7-29.
[17] 李乔.矩阵论八讲[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1988:71-105.LI Qiao.Eight lectures on matrix theory[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers,1988:71-105.
[18] BALLESTER C,CALVó-ARMENGOL A,ZENOU Y.Who?s who in networks-wanted:the key player[J].Econometrica,2006,74(5):1403-1417.
(1)an=Θ(bn)表示,正实数序列{an}和{bn},满足supn→∞an/bn<∞和infn→∞an/bn>0。