国家水环境质量预报预警研究进展及业务发展思路
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摘要
开展国家水环境质量预报预警工作是生态环境治理能力现代化的重要部分,是统筹山水林田湖草系统治理的重要抓手。文章介绍了国内外水质模型的研究进展,并概述了国内外水质预报预警系统研究进展,在此基础上分析目前我国水质预报预警方面存在的不足,并提出了国家水环境质量预报预警业务发展的初步思路。我国水质预报预警体系建设要以技术体系和业务体系为保障,以水质模型和面源污染模型为支撑,依托水环境质量预报预警决策支持平台,开展环境监管业务化应用、治理决策精细化支撑、污染事故科学化处置和数据产品社会化服务4种业务应用,逐步建成架构统一、业务协同、资源共享、上下游联动的全国-流域-省级-城市四级水环境质量预报预警网络。
Carrying out the national water quality forecasting and alarming system is an important part of the modernization of the ecological environment governance capacity. It is also an important starting point for the management of lake grass system in landscape forest field. This paper introduces the research progress of water quality model and water quality forecasting and alarming system at home and abroad, and analyzes the existing shortage of water quality forecasting and alarming in China, then proposes a preliminary plan for the development of the national water quality forecasting and alarming system. The construction of water quality forecasting and alarming system should be supported by technical system and operational system, based on water quality model and non-point pollution model, relying on the decision-supporting platform of water environment quality forecasting and alarming. Based on these technology supports, the water quality forecasting and alarming system will be established to accomplish four applications: Operational application of environmental supervision, fine support of management decision-making, scientific disposal of accidents, and the socialized services of data products. After that, the four levels network including national, basins, provinces and cities will be gradually established, which implement unified framework, operation collaboration, resource sharing, and upstream and downstream linkage.
Carrying out the national water quality forecasting and alarming system is an important part of the modernization of the ecological environment governance capacity. It is also an important starting point for the management of lake grass system in landscape forest field. This paper introduces the research progress of water quality model and water quality forecasting and alarming system at home and abroad, and analyzes the existing shortage of water quality forecasting and alarming in China, then proposes a preliminary plan for the development of the national water quality forecasting and alarming system. The construction of water quality forecasting and alarming system should be supported by technical system and operational system, based on water quality model and non-point pollution model, relying on the decision-supporting platform of water environment quality forecasting and alarming. Based on these technology supports, the water quality forecasting and alarming system will be established to accomplish four applications: Operational application of environmental supervision, fine support of management decision-making, scientific disposal of accidents, and the socialized services of data products. After that, the four levels network including national, basins, provinces and cities will be gradually established, which implement unified framework, operation collaboration, resource sharing, and upstream and downstream linkage.
引文
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[2] FABRICIO D C,ROSA I A,RAFAEL P,et al.Modelling Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Water Quality of an Artificial Water Reservoir in the Semiarid Midwest of Argentina[J].Analytica Chimica Acta,2011,705:243-252.
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[11] 梁俐,邓云,郑美芳,等.基于CE-QUAL-W2模型的龙川江支库富营养化预测[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(增刊1):103-111.LIANG Li,DENG Yun,ZHENG Meifang,et al.Predicting of Eutrophication in the Longchuan River Based on CE-QUAL-W2 Model[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(Supplement 1):103-111.
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[14] 黄庆超,石巍方,刘广龙,等.基于Delft3D的三峡水库不同工况下香溪河水动力水质模拟[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(7):33-39.HUANG Qingchao,SHI Weifang,LIU Guanglong,et al.Modeling the Hydrodynamics and Water Quality of XiangxiRiver Under Different Working Conditions of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Delft3D[J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2017,28(7):33-39.
[15] XIE R,WU D,YAN Y,et al.Fine Silt Particle Pathline of Dredging Sediment in the Yangtze River Deepwater Navigation Channel Based on EFDC Model[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,2010,22(6):760-772.
[16] SEO D,KIM M,AHN J H.Prediction of Chlorophyll-a Changes Due to Weir Constructions in the Nakdong River Using EFDC-WASP Modelling[J].Environmental Engineering Research,2012,17(2):95-102.
[17] HAMRICK J M,WU T S.Computational Design and Optimization of the EFDC/HEM3D Surface Water Hydrodynamic and Eutrophication Models[J].Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics,Philadelphia,1997(1):143-161.
[18] EMST M R,OWENS J.Development and Application of a WASP Model on a Large Texas Reservoir to Assess Eutrophication Control[J]. Lake and Reservoir Management,2009,25(2):136-148.
[19] WOOL T A,DAVIE S R,RODRIGUEZ H N.Development of Three Dimensional Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Models to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Decision Process for the Neuse River Estuary,North Carolina[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2003,129(4):295-330.
[20] 王雪蕾,王新新,朱利,等.巢湖流域氮磷面源污染与水华空间分布遥感解析[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(5):1 511-1 519.WANG Xuelei,WANG Xinxin,ZHU Li,et al.Spatial Analysis on Diffuse Pollution and Algal Bloom Characteristic with Remote Sensing in Chao Lake Basin[J].China Environmental Science,2015,35(5):1 511-1 519.
[21] TEMPRANO J,ARANGO O,CAGIAO J,et al.Stormwater Quality Calibration by SWMM:A Case Study in Northern Spain[J].Water South Africa,2006,32(1):55-63.
[22] 金蕾,华蕾,荆红卫,等.非点源污染负荷估算方法研究进展及对北京市的应用[J].环境污染与防治,2010,32(4):72-78.JIN Lei,HUA Lei,JING Hongwei,et al.Review of Nonpoint Source Pollution Loads Estimation Methods and Its Application in Beijing[J].Environmental Pollution and Control,2010,32(4):72-78.
[23] DIAZ RAMIREZ J N,PEREZ ALEGRIA L R,MCANALLY W H.Hydrology and Sediment Modeling Using BASINS/HSPF in a Tropical Island Watershed[J].Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Biological Engineers,2008,51(5):1 555-1 565.
[24] KIRNAK H.Comparison of Erosion and Runoff Predicted by WEPP and AGNPS Models Using a Geographic Information System[J].Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry,2002,26:261-268.
[25] CHEN S,LI R.2013.Assessment of Surface Water Resources and Evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin of China Using SWAT Model[J].Hydrological Processes,27(8):1 200-1 222.
[26] DIEHL P,GERKE T,JEUKEN A D,et al.Early Warning Strategies and Practices Along the River Rhine[M].Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2006:99-124.
[27] PINTER G.Early Warning System on the Danube River[J].Security of Public Water Supplies,2000,66:101-106.
[2] FABRICIO D C,ROSA I A,RAFAEL P,et al.Modelling Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Water Quality of an Artificial Water Reservoir in the Semiarid Midwest of Argentina[J].Analytica Chimica Acta,2011,705:243-252.
[3] HUSSAIN M,AHMED S M,ABDERRAHMAN W.Cluster Analysis and Quality assessment of Logged Water at an Irrigation Project,Eastern Saudi Arabia[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2008,86:279-307.
[4] 环境保护部.关于印发《重点流域水污染防治规划(2016—2020年)》的通知[EB/OL].[2017-10-27].http://www.zhb.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bwj/201710/t20171027_424176.htm.
[5] 国务院.国务院关于印发《水污染防治行动计划》的通知[EB/OL].[2015-04-16].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2015-04/16/content_9613.htm.
[6] 刘路.基于水质模型的区域污染控制研究[D].上海:东华大学,2011.
[7] 罗定贵,王学军,孙莉宁.水质模型研究进展与流域管理模型WARMF 评述[J].水科学进展,2005,16(2):289-294.LUO Dinggui,WANG Xuejun,SUN Lining.Progress in Study of Water Quality Model and Review of River Basin Management Model-WARMF[J].Advance in Water Science,2005,16(2):289-294.
[8] 曹晓静,张航.地表水质模型研究综述[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2016,4(4):18-21.CAO Xiaojing,ZHANG Hang.Commentary on Study of Surface Water Quality Model[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2016,4(4):18-21.
[9] STREETER H W,PHELPS E B. A Study of the Pollution and Natural Purification of the Ohio River[J].Washington: US Goverment,2010,8(1):1-75.
[10] 周华.河流综合水质模型QUAL2K应用研究[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2010,8(1):73-77.ZHOU HUA.Application Research of a Comprehensive River Water Quality Model QUAL2K[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2010,8(1):73-77.
[11] 梁俐,邓云,郑美芳,等.基于CE-QUAL-W2模型的龙川江支库富营养化预测[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(增刊1):103-111.LIANG Li,DENG Yun,ZHENG Meifang,et al.Predicting of Eutrophication in the Longchuan River Based on CE-QUAL-W2 Model[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(Supplement 1):103-111.
[12] KANDA E K,KOSGEI J R,KIPKORIR E C.Simulation of Organic Carbon Loading Using MIKE 11 Model:A Case of River Nzoia Kenya[J].Water Practice and Technology,2015,10(2):298-304.
[13] HAVNO K,MADEN M N,DORGE J,et al.MIKE 11-a Generalized River Modelling Package[J].Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology,1995(1):733-782.
[14] 黄庆超,石巍方,刘广龙,等.基于Delft3D的三峡水库不同工况下香溪河水动力水质模拟[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(7):33-39.HUANG Qingchao,SHI Weifang,LIU Guanglong,et al.Modeling the Hydrodynamics and Water Quality of XiangxiRiver Under Different Working Conditions of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Delft3D[J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2017,28(7):33-39.
[15] XIE R,WU D,YAN Y,et al.Fine Silt Particle Pathline of Dredging Sediment in the Yangtze River Deepwater Navigation Channel Based on EFDC Model[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,2010,22(6):760-772.
[16] SEO D,KIM M,AHN J H.Prediction of Chlorophyll-a Changes Due to Weir Constructions in the Nakdong River Using EFDC-WASP Modelling[J].Environmental Engineering Research,2012,17(2):95-102.
[17] HAMRICK J M,WU T S.Computational Design and Optimization of the EFDC/HEM3D Surface Water Hydrodynamic and Eutrophication Models[J].Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics,Philadelphia,1997(1):143-161.
[18] EMST M R,OWENS J.Development and Application of a WASP Model on a Large Texas Reservoir to Assess Eutrophication Control[J]. Lake and Reservoir Management,2009,25(2):136-148.
[19] WOOL T A,DAVIE S R,RODRIGUEZ H N.Development of Three Dimensional Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Models to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Decision Process for the Neuse River Estuary,North Carolina[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2003,129(4):295-330.
[20] 王雪蕾,王新新,朱利,等.巢湖流域氮磷面源污染与水华空间分布遥感解析[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(5):1 511-1 519.WANG Xuelei,WANG Xinxin,ZHU Li,et al.Spatial Analysis on Diffuse Pollution and Algal Bloom Characteristic with Remote Sensing in Chao Lake Basin[J].China Environmental Science,2015,35(5):1 511-1 519.
[21] TEMPRANO J,ARANGO O,CAGIAO J,et al.Stormwater Quality Calibration by SWMM:A Case Study in Northern Spain[J].Water South Africa,2006,32(1):55-63.
[22] 金蕾,华蕾,荆红卫,等.非点源污染负荷估算方法研究进展及对北京市的应用[J].环境污染与防治,2010,32(4):72-78.JIN Lei,HUA Lei,JING Hongwei,et al.Review of Nonpoint Source Pollution Loads Estimation Methods and Its Application in Beijing[J].Environmental Pollution and Control,2010,32(4):72-78.
[23] DIAZ RAMIREZ J N,PEREZ ALEGRIA L R,MCANALLY W H.Hydrology and Sediment Modeling Using BASINS/HSPF in a Tropical Island Watershed[J].Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Biological Engineers,2008,51(5):1 555-1 565.
[24] KIRNAK H.Comparison of Erosion and Runoff Predicted by WEPP and AGNPS Models Using a Geographic Information System[J].Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry,2002,26:261-268.
[25] CHEN S,LI R.2013.Assessment of Surface Water Resources and Evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin of China Using SWAT Model[J].Hydrological Processes,27(8):1 200-1 222.
[26] DIEHL P,GERKE T,JEUKEN A D,et al.Early Warning Strategies and Practices Along the River Rhine[M].Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2006:99-124.
[27] PINTER G.Early Warning System on the Danube River[J].Security of Public Water Supplies,2000,66:101-106.