基础设施对国际贸易的影响研究——基于荟萃分析的检验
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摘要
改革开放四十年来,我国公路、铁路(高铁)、航空、港口、通信等基础设施建设取得显著成就,对国际贸易发展产生了巨大影响。以定量方式厘清基础设施与国际贸易之间的内在关联机制,对我国协调各项基础设施建设,优化对外贸易结构,进而促进对外贸易转型意义重大。可通过荟萃(Meta)分析方法对相关文献中的定量观点进行综合分析,以量化基础设施对国际贸易的影响。以基础设施对国际贸易效应的显著性为因变量,应用64篇重要文献的594个效应值,从样本特征、研究方法、国际贸易测量方法、基础设施测量方法、研究地区经济发展水平、样本结构、模型说明、出版性质、文献权重九个层面入手检验调节变量对实证结果的影响,发现基础设施对国际贸易影响的实证结果会受到各研究特征的影响,即随着调节变量的改变,基础设施与国际贸易的关系会产生差异。其中,当文献检验模型使用工具变量法、采用出口衡量国际贸易水平、以公路和铁路衡量基础设施、检验发达地区经济水平、不包含汇率时,有助于促使基础设施对国际贸易产生显著影响或显著正向影响。因此,为更加充分地发挥基础设施在促进国际贸易发展方面的基础性作用,一方面要立足长远,统筹规划,加快基础设施建设,建立与世界各国基础设施网络无缝对接的发达的基础设施网络体系;另一方面要建立政府主导、市场调节、企业化运作的高效基础设施投资体制和运行机制,提高投资建设效率,降低基础设施建设成本。
In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China has made remarkable achievements in infrastructure construction,such as highway,railway(high-speed railway),aviation,port,communication and so on,which has a great impact on the development of international trade. It is of great significance for China to clarify the internal correlation mechanism between infrastructure and international trade in a quantitative way so as to coordinate infrastructure construction,optimize the structure of foreign trade and further promote the transformation of foreign trade. Through meta-analysis method,the authors synthetically analyze the relevant research literature to quantify the impact of infrastructure on international trade. By setting the significance of the infrastructure to the international trade effect as the dependent variable,the authors examine the impact of infrastructure on international trade by means of estimates obtained from 64 primary studies that yield 594 infrastructure elasticities of international trade,and examine the impact of regulatory variables on empirical results from nine levels:the sample characteristics,research methods,international trade measurement method,measurement method,level of regional economic development,sample structure,model description,nature of publication,and literature weight. The results show that the relationship between infrastructure and international trade is different because of the intervention of regulatory variables. When the literature test model adopts instrumental variable method,export measurement trade level,land infrastructure,developed economy level,and excluding exchange rate,it is beneficial to the result that "infrastructure has a significant or significant positive impact on international trade". To better give play to the fundamental role of infrastructure in promoting international trade development,on one hand,we should accelerate the construction of infrastructure,establish the advanced infrastructure network connecting with world infrastructure network;on the other hand,we should establish the efficient infrastructure investment system and operation mechanism that is lead by the government,adjusted by the market,and operated by enterprises,improve the efficient of investment and building,and reduce the cost of infrastructure construction.
In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China has made remarkable achievements in infrastructure construction,such as highway,railway(high-speed railway),aviation,port,communication and so on,which has a great impact on the development of international trade. It is of great significance for China to clarify the internal correlation mechanism between infrastructure and international trade in a quantitative way so as to coordinate infrastructure construction,optimize the structure of foreign trade and further promote the transformation of foreign trade. Through meta-analysis method,the authors synthetically analyze the relevant research literature to quantify the impact of infrastructure on international trade. By setting the significance of the infrastructure to the international trade effect as the dependent variable,the authors examine the impact of infrastructure on international trade by means of estimates obtained from 64 primary studies that yield 594 infrastructure elasticities of international trade,and examine the impact of regulatory variables on empirical results from nine levels:the sample characteristics,research methods,international trade measurement method,measurement method,level of regional economic development,sample structure,model description,nature of publication,and literature weight. The results show that the relationship between infrastructure and international trade is different because of the intervention of regulatory variables. When the literature test model adopts instrumental variable method,export measurement trade level,land infrastructure,developed economy level,and excluding exchange rate,it is beneficial to the result that "infrastructure has a significant or significant positive impact on international trade". To better give play to the fundamental role of infrastructure in promoting international trade development,on one hand,we should accelerate the construction of infrastructure,establish the advanced infrastructure network connecting with world infrastructure network;on the other hand,we should establish the efficient infrastructure investment system and operation mechanism that is lead by the government,adjusted by the market,and operated by enterprises,improve the efficient of investment and building,and reduce the cost of infrastructure construction.
引文
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[21]MARTINCUS C V,BLYDE J.Shaky roads and trembling exports:assessing the trade effects of domestic infrastructure using a natural experiment[J].Journal of international economics,2013,90(1):148-161.
[22]BENSASSI S,MáRQUEZ-RAMOS L,MARTíNEZ-ZAR-ZOSO I,et al.Relationship between logistics infrastructure and trade:evidence from Spanish regional exports[J].Transportation research part A:policy and practice,2015,72(2):47-61.
[23]NIJKAMP P.Infrastructure and regional development:a multidimensional policy analysis[J].Empirical economics,1986,11(1):1-21.
[24]BRUINSMA F,NIJKAMP P,RIETVELD P.Employment impacts of infrastructure investments:a case study for the Netherlands[M]//PESCHEL K.Infrastructure and the spaceeconomy.Berlin,Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,1990:209-226.
[25]王永进,盛丹,施炳展,等.基础设施如何提升了出口技术复杂度?[J].经济研究,2010(7):103-115.
[26]梁双陆,张梅.基础设施互联互通对我国与周边国家贸易边界效应的影响[J].亚太经济,2016(1):101-106.
[27]徐美娜,彭羽.ICT基础设施对离岸服务出口的影响--基于美国双边贸易数据的实证研究[J].国际经贸探索,2015,31(12):4-19.
[28]GLASS G V.Primary,secondary and meta-analysis of research[J].Educational researcher,1976,5(10):3-8.
[29]POOT J.Meta-analysis of previous empirical research findings[J].Chapters,2014(1):236-262.
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[31]ROSE A K,STANLEY T D.A meta-analysis of the effect of common currencies on international trade[J].Journal of economic surveys,2005,19(3):347-365.
[2]BOUET A,MISHRA S,ROY D.Does africa trade less than it should,and if so,why:the role of market access and domestic factors[EB/OL].(2014-05-21)[2018-08-20].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5056699_Does_Africa_tr ade_less_than_it_should_and_if_so_why_The_role_of_market_access_and_domestic_factors.
[3]DONAUBAUER J,GLAS A,NUNNENKAMP P.Infrastructure and trade:a gravity analysis for major trade categories using a new index of infrastructure[EB/OL].(2015-12-11)[2018-08-20].https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/Peter_Nunnenkamp/infrastructure-and-trade-a-gravity-analysis-for-major-trade-categories-using-a-new-index-of-infrastructure/kwp_2016.pdf.
[4]COSAR A K,DEMIR B.Domestic road infrastructure and international trade:evidence from Turkey[J].Journal of development economics,2016,118:232-244.
[5]MARTINE-ZZARZOSO I,NOWAK-LEHMANN F.Augmented gravity model:an empirical application to mercosureuropean union trade flows[J].International trade,2003,6(11):291-316.
[6]VENABLES A J.Infrastructure,geographical disadvantage,transport costs,and trade[J].World bank economic review,2001,15(3):451-479.
[7]GRIGORIOU C.Landlockedness,infrastructure and trade:new estimates for central Asian countries[EB/OL].(2016-05-03)[2018-08-20].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23550335_Landlockedness_Infrastructure_and_Trade_New_Estimates_for_Central_Asian_Countries.
[8]PORTUGAL-PEREZ A,WILSON J S.Export performance and trade facilitation reform:hard and soft infrastructure[J].World development,2012,40(7):1 295-1 307.
[9]LONGO R,SEKKAT K.Economic obstacles to expanding intra-african trade[J].World development,2004,32(8):1 309-1 321.
[10]NJINKEU D,WILSON J S,FOSSO B P.Expanding trade within Africa:the impact of trade facilitation[EB/OL].(2015-10-29)[2018-08-20].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23970212_Expanding_Trade_within_Africa_The_Impact_of_Trade_Facilitation.
[11]AKPAN U.Impact of regional road infrastructure improvement on intra-regional trade in ECOWAS[J].African development review,2015,26(S1):64-76.
[12]FRANCOIS J F,MANCHIN M.Institutions,infrastructure and trade[J].World development,2013,46(2):165-175.
[13]WU Y.Export performance in China's regional economies[J].Applied economics,2007,39(10):1 283-1 293.
[14]XU H.Domestic railroad infrastructure and exports:evidence from the Silk Route[J].China economic review,2016,41(12):129-147.
[15]盛丹,包群,王永进.基础设施对中国企业出口行为的影响:“集约边际”还是“扩展边际”[J].世界经济,2011(1):17-36.
[16]盛丹,王永进.基础设施、融资依赖与地区出口比较优势[J].金融研究,2012(5):15-29.
[17]喻春娇,唐威.基础设施建设对中国区域对外贸易的影响分析[J].湖北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,40(2):78-81.
[18]李坤望,邵文波,王永进.信息化密度、信息基础设施与企业出口绩效--基于企业异质性的理论与实证分析[J].管理世界,2015(4):52-65.
[19]汪来喜.基础设施对地区出口优势影响的实证研究--基于省际面板数据分析[J].经济问题探索,2015(12):106-111.
[20]GRANATO M F.Regional export performance:first nature,agglomeration and destiny?the role of infrastructure[EB/OL].(2008-01-02)[2018-08-20].https://docplayer.net/21188239-Regional-export-performance-first-nature-agglomeration-and-destiny-the-role-of-infrastructure.html.
[21]MARTINCUS C V,BLYDE J.Shaky roads and trembling exports:assessing the trade effects of domestic infrastructure using a natural experiment[J].Journal of international economics,2013,90(1):148-161.
[22]BENSASSI S,MáRQUEZ-RAMOS L,MARTíNEZ-ZAR-ZOSO I,et al.Relationship between logistics infrastructure and trade:evidence from Spanish regional exports[J].Transportation research part A:policy and practice,2015,72(2):47-61.
[23]NIJKAMP P.Infrastructure and regional development:a multidimensional policy analysis[J].Empirical economics,1986,11(1):1-21.
[24]BRUINSMA F,NIJKAMP P,RIETVELD P.Employment impacts of infrastructure investments:a case study for the Netherlands[M]//PESCHEL K.Infrastructure and the spaceeconomy.Berlin,Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,1990:209-226.
[25]王永进,盛丹,施炳展,等.基础设施如何提升了出口技术复杂度?[J].经济研究,2010(7):103-115.
[26]梁双陆,张梅.基础设施互联互通对我国与周边国家贸易边界效应的影响[J].亚太经济,2016(1):101-106.
[27]徐美娜,彭羽.ICT基础设施对离岸服务出口的影响--基于美国双边贸易数据的实证研究[J].国际经贸探索,2015,31(12):4-19.
[28]GLASS G V.Primary,secondary and meta-analysis of research[J].Educational researcher,1976,5(10):3-8.
[29]POOT J.Meta-analysis of previous empirical research findings[J].Chapters,2014(1):236-262.
[30]RIDHWAN M M,DE GROOT H L F,NIJKAMP P,et al.The impact of monetary policy on economic activity--evidence from a meta-analysis[EB/OL].(2010-04-21)[2018-08-20].https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=087089099092097125008021123007116005018043040037001065095009009113091097108025090067002010036056019123016103109010092097075018104087070023007099019025065031016099004020076113005124082116118127065120100091105123066013125007082091064022006077073106098&EXT=pdf.
[31]ROSE A K,STANLEY T D.A meta-analysis of the effect of common currencies on international trade[J].Journal of economic surveys,2005,19(3):347-365.