基于Maxent模型的贵州省天然黄杉林的潜在分布预测研究
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摘要
本研究结合贵州省天然黄杉林的现状分布数据和19个生物气候因子。构建Maxent物种潜在分布模型,预测了贵州省天然黄杉林的潜在分布区,明确了控制其分布的主导气候因子,研究结果表明,(1)模型的训练数据(Training data)和检验数据(Texting data)的AUC值分别为0.974和0.921,模型的总体预测精度达到优秀水平;(2)最干季度降水量(Bio17)、年均降水量(Bio12)、和昼夜温差月均温(Bio2) 3个气候因子为影响和控制贵州省天然黄杉林潜在分布的主导气候因子,3个主导因子的适宜范围依次为26-38mm、865-980mm、9.5-10.5℃,最适宜值依次为32mm、915mm、10.2℃;(3)贵州省天然黄杉林潜在适宜区域总面积21 558.35km~2,其中包含高度适宜区域10 113.97 km~2,中度适宜区域11 444.38km~2;(4)贵州省天然黄杉林高度适宜区域的海拔范围为547-2 622m,平均海拔1 319m,中度适宜区域的海拔范围为593-2 476m,平均海拔1 276m。
Based on the current distribution data of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest and 19 bioclimate factors in Guizhou province,this paper constructed a potential species distribution model(Maxent),and predicted the potential distribution area of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province,and identified the dominant climatic factors that control its distribution.The results showed that:(1) The AUC values of the training data and the test data were 0.974 and 0.921,respectively,which demonstrated that the accuracy of the model was excellent.(2) The precipitation of driest quarter(Bio17),annual precipitation(Bio12),and mean diurnal range(Bio2) were dominant climatic factors which affected and controlled the potential distribution of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province.Appropriate range of the three dominant factors were 26-38 mm,865-980 mm,9.5-10.5℃,and the optimal values were 32 mm,915 mm,and 10.2℃,respectively;(3) The total suitable area of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province was 21 558.35 km~2,which contained 10 113.97 km~2 for highly suitable area,and 11 444.38 km~2 for medium suitable area;(4) Elevation range of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province was 547-2 622 m for highly suitable area,with an average of 1 319 m,and 593-2 476 m for medium suitable area,with an average of 1 276 m.
Based on the current distribution data of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest and 19 bioclimate factors in Guizhou province,this paper constructed a potential species distribution model(Maxent),and predicted the potential distribution area of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province,and identified the dominant climatic factors that control its distribution.The results showed that:(1) The AUC values of the training data and the test data were 0.974 and 0.921,respectively,which demonstrated that the accuracy of the model was excellent.(2) The precipitation of driest quarter(Bio17),annual precipitation(Bio12),and mean diurnal range(Bio2) were dominant climatic factors which affected and controlled the potential distribution of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province.Appropriate range of the three dominant factors were 26-38 mm,865-980 mm,9.5-10.5℃,and the optimal values were 32 mm,915 mm,and 10.2℃,respectively;(3) The total suitable area of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province was 21 558.35 km~2,which contained 10 113.97 km~2 for highly suitable area,and 11 444.38 km~2 for medium suitable area;(4) Elevation range of natural Pseudotsuga sinensis forest in Guizhou province was 547-2 622 m for highly suitable area,with an average of 1 319 m,and 593-2 476 m for medium suitable area,with an average of 1 276 m.
引文
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[2]高顺良,高顺全.黄杉育苗造林技术[J].云南林业,2004(4):17-17.
[3]李明刚,谢双喜.黔北喀斯特山地黄杉林群落及种群结构研究[J].天津农业科学,2015,21(9):150-153.
[4]左家哺.贵州西部黄杉林群落特征与天然更新的研究[J].贵州林业科技,1995(1):14-21.
[5]李永福.贵州省自然资源特点及其合理利用的途径[J].经济地理,1985(2):95-100.
[6] Zhang K,Yao L,Meng J,et al.Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,634:1326.
[7]Sony R K,Sen S,Kumar S,et al.Niche models inform the effects of climate change on the endangered Nilgiri Tahr(Nilgiritragus hylocrius)populations in the southern Western Ghats,India[J].Ecological Engineering,2018,120(355):355-363.
[8]王罛,林慧龙,何兰,等.紫茎泽兰潜在分布对气候变化响应的研究[J].草业学报,2014,23(4):20-30.
[9]陈剑,原晓龙,谭芮,等.基于MaxEnt滇牡丹潜在适生区研究[J].西部林业科学,2018,47(3):24-29.
[10]庄鸿飞,秦浩,王伟,等.基于MaxEnt模型的云南红豆杉潜在适宜分布预测[J].山西大学学报(自然科学版),2018,41(1):233-240.
[11]Tang C Q,Dong Y F,Herrandomoraira S,et al.Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China[J].Scientific Reports,2017,7:43822.
[12]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
[13]吴庆明,王磊,朱瑞萍,等.基于Maxent模型的丹顶鹤营巢生境适宜性分析—以扎龙保护区为例[J].生态学报,2016,36(12):3758-3764.
[14]黄威廉.贵州植被[M].贵阳:贵州人民出版社,1988.
[15]林宇.广西大石围天坑群天坑森林物种多样性研究[D].桂林:广西师范大学,2005.
[16]吴良,徐正刚,张婉,等.基于MaxEnt模型的中国构树潜在适生分布研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2018,38(5):40-45.
[17]Li W J,Peng M C,Higa M,et al.Effects of climate change on potential habitats of the cold temperate coniferous forest in Yunnan Province,Southwestern China [J].Journal of Mountain Science,2016,13(8):1411-1422.
[18] Horikawa M,Tsuyama I,Matsui T,et al.Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the alpine habitat suitability of Japanese stone pine(Pinus pumila )[J].Landscape Ecology,2009,24(1):115-128.
[19] Tanaka N,Nakao K,Tsuyama I,et al.Predicting the impact of climate change on potential habitats of fir(Abies)species in Japan and on the East Asian continent[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13(10):455-466.
[20] Nakao K,Higa M,Tsuyama I,et al.Spatial conservation planning under climate change:Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan[J].Journal for Nature Conservation,2013,21(6):406-413.