包头市大气臭氧污染对人群循环系统疾病死亡的急性效应
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摘要
[目的]光化学污染已成为我国城市污染的首要问题,臭氧(O_3)可导致居民死亡例数增加,因此本研究评估O_3对内蒙古包头市人群循环系统疾病死亡的急性影响。[方法]收集2015年1月1日—2017年12月31日包头市逐日气象变量(平均温度、平均相对湿度、平均气压、平均风速)、大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO、O_3)和人群循环系统疾病死亡资料,并进行描述性分析。采用基于半泊松回归的广义线性模型,控制长期趋势、气象因素和星期几效应,分析O_3与逐日居民循环系统疾病死亡率之间的关系。计算O_3每升高10μg/m~3,循环系统疾病死亡率增加的超额危险度及95%可信区间(95%CI)。[结果]包头市全年、夏季和冬季O_3日均值分别为93.94、138.70、52.51μg/m~3。单污染物模型显示,O_3每升高10μg/m~3,可使总人群(lag1)、女性(lag1)、大于65岁人群(lag1)和男性(lag5)循环系统疾病死亡风险分别增加1.62%(95%CI:0.38%~2.88%)、2.16(95%CI:0.48%~3.86%),1.54%(95%CI:0.17%~2.92%)和1.61%(95%CI:0.27%~2.96%)。全年多污染物模型分析显示,单独引入SO_2、CO、PM_(2.5)或同时引入SO_2、CO、PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)时,O_3对总人群、女性人群和>65岁人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险的影响增加;单独引入PM_(10)时,O_3对总人群和女性人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险有所降低,对>65岁人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险的影响增加;单独引入CO或同时引入SO_2、CO、PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)时,O_3对男性人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险有影响。夏季多污染物模型分析显示,单独控制SO_2或同时控制SO_2、CO、PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)时,O_3对女性人群的循环系统疾病日死亡风险的负面效应增强。[结论]包头市大气污染物O_3对居民循环系统疾病死亡存在急性影响,该效应夏季强于冬季。
[Objective] Photochemical pollution has become a major concern in urban areas throughout China as ozone(O_3) has been linked to increased residents' deaths. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the acute effect of O_3 on the circulatory death of residents in Baotou City.[Methods] Daily meteorological data(average temperature, average relative humidity, average air pressure, and average wind speed), selected air pollutants(PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, CO, and O_3), and population circulatory deaths in Baotou City from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were collected and analyzed descriptively. After controlling long-term trend, meteorological factors, and day-of-the-week effect, a generalized linear model based on quasi-Poisson regression was used to analyze the potential association between O_3 concentration and daily population death from circulatory diseases. The excess risk and 95% confidence interval of mortality due to circulatory diseases were calculated for per 10 μg/m~3 increase in O_3.[Results] The daily O_3 levels in Baotou city in the whole year, summer, and winter were 93.94, 138.70, and 52.51 μg/m~3, respectively. The results of single pollutant model showed that the circulatory disease mortality of general population(lag1), female residents(lag1), residents over 65 years old(lag1), and male residents(lag5) increased by 1.62%(95%CI: 0.38%-2.88%), 2.16%(95%CI: 0.48%-3.86%), 1.54%(95%CI: 0.17%-2.92%), and 1.61%(95%CI: 0.27%-2.96%) for per 10 μg/m~3 increase in O_3, respectively. The results of multi-pollutant model for the whole year showed that when SO_2, CO, and PM_(2.5) were introduced separately or SO_2, CO, PM_(2.5), and PM_(10) were introduced at the same time, the daily death risk of circulatory diseases associated with O_3 in general population, female residents, and residents over 65 years old were increased; when PM_(10) was introduced alone, the risk was reduced in general population and female residents, and increased in residents over 65 years old; when CO was introduced alone or SO_2, CO, PM_(2.5), and PM_(10) were introduced at the same time, the risk in male residents remained statistically significant. The results of multi-pollutant model for summer showed that when SO_2 was controlled alone or SO_2, CO, PM_(2.5), and PM_(10) were controlled at the same time, the risk of death from circulatory diseases in female residents were elevated.[Conclusion] O_3 pollution has an acute effect on the circulatory death of the residents in Baotou City, and the effect is stronger in summer than in winter.
[Objective] Photochemical pollution has become a major concern in urban areas throughout China as ozone(O_3) has been linked to increased residents' deaths. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the acute effect of O_3 on the circulatory death of residents in Baotou City.[Methods] Daily meteorological data(average temperature, average relative humidity, average air pressure, and average wind speed), selected air pollutants(PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, CO, and O_3), and population circulatory deaths in Baotou City from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were collected and analyzed descriptively. After controlling long-term trend, meteorological factors, and day-of-the-week effect, a generalized linear model based on quasi-Poisson regression was used to analyze the potential association between O_3 concentration and daily population death from circulatory diseases. The excess risk and 95% confidence interval of mortality due to circulatory diseases were calculated for per 10 μg/m~3 increase in O_3.[Results] The daily O_3 levels in Baotou city in the whole year, summer, and winter were 93.94, 138.70, and 52.51 μg/m~3, respectively. The results of single pollutant model showed that the circulatory disease mortality of general population(lag1), female residents(lag1), residents over 65 years old(lag1), and male residents(lag5) increased by 1.62%(95%CI: 0.38%-2.88%), 2.16%(95%CI: 0.48%-3.86%), 1.54%(95%CI: 0.17%-2.92%), and 1.61%(95%CI: 0.27%-2.96%) for per 10 μg/m~3 increase in O_3, respectively. The results of multi-pollutant model for the whole year showed that when SO_2, CO, and PM_(2.5) were introduced separately or SO_2, CO, PM_(2.5), and PM_(10) were introduced at the same time, the daily death risk of circulatory diseases associated with O_3 in general population, female residents, and residents over 65 years old were increased; when PM_(10) was introduced alone, the risk was reduced in general population and female residents, and increased in residents over 65 years old; when CO was introduced alone or SO_2, CO, PM_(2.5), and PM_(10) were introduced at the same time, the risk in male residents remained statistically significant. The results of multi-pollutant model for summer showed that when SO_2 was controlled alone or SO_2, CO, PM_(2.5), and PM_(10) were controlled at the same time, the risk of death from circulatory diseases in female residents were elevated.[Conclusion] O_3 pollution has an acute effect on the circulatory death of the residents in Baotou City, and the effect is stronger in summer than in winter.
引文
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[21]齐爱,刘秀英,周健,等.银川市大气颗粒物对人群循环系统疾病死亡影响的时间序列分析[J].环境与健康杂志,2017,34(7):598-602.
[22]张永利,莫哲,易井萍,等.舟山市大气PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数的影响[J].环境与职业医学,2017,34(3):224-229.
[23]国家环境空气质量标准:GB 3095-2012[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012.
[24]陈琦,孙宏,陈晓东,等.南京市臭氧短期暴露人群急性健康效应研究[J].江苏预防医学,2017,28(4):366-368,386.
[25]廖志恒,范绍佳.2006-2012年珠江三角洲地区O3污染对人群健康的影响[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(3):897-905.
[26]LI Y,SHANG Y,ZHENG C,et al.Estimated acute effects of ozone on mortality in a rural district of Beijing,China,2005-2013:a time-stratified case-crossover study[J].Int JEnviron Res Public Health,2018,15(11):2460.
[27]SON J Y,LEE J T,KIM H,et al.Susceptibility to air pollution effects on mortality in Seoul,Korea:a case-crossover analysis of individual-level effect modifiers[J].J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol,2012,22(3):227-234.
[28]LELIEVELD J,EVANS J S,FNAIS M,et al.The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale[J].Nature,2015,525(7569):367-371.
[29]WONG T,TAM W,YU T,et al.Associations between daily mortalities from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in Hong Kong,China[J].Occup Environ Med,2002,59(1):30-35.
[30]ZHANG Y,HUANG W,LONDON S J,et al.Ozone and daily mortality in Shanghai,China[J].Environ Health Perspect,2006,114(8):1227-1232.
[2]闫梅霖,李湉湉,刘晓途,等.我国臭氧短期暴露的人群健康效应研究进展[J].环境与健康杂志,2012,29(8):752-761.
[3]邬堂春.防控空气污染加强空气污染致健康危害研究[J].中华预防医学杂志,2016,50(8):665-667.
[4]刘涛,曾韦霖,林华亮,等.珠江三角洲地区大气臭氧引起居民死亡风险的时空分布及其修饰因素[J].华南预防医学,2016,42(3):201-207.
[5]董继元,刘兴荣,张本忠,等.我国臭氧短期暴露与人群死亡风险的Meta分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(4):1477-1485.
[6]杨春雪.细颗粒物和臭氧对我国居民死亡影响的急性效应研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2012.
[7]周海军,刘涛,都达古拉,等.包头市大气污染特征及其影响因素[J].环境科学研究,2017,30(2):202-213.
[8]钱旭君,李国星,贺天锋,等.宁波市大气污染物一氧化碳及臭氧对人群心肌梗死死亡的急性效应研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2017,38(3):297-302.
[9]徐鹏,郝庆菊,吉东生,等.重庆市北碚大气中PM2.5、NOx、SO2和O3浓度变化特征研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(5):1539-1547.
[10]宋从波,李瑞芃,何建军,等.河北廊坊市区大气中NO、NO2和O3污染特征研究[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(10):2903-2912.
[11]王任洪.兰州市大气污染与呼吸、循环系统疾病死亡的时间序列分析[D].兰州:兰州大学,2017.
[12]本刊编辑部.臭氧(O3)[J].中国肿瘤临床与康复,2017,24(1):110.
[13]王莹,刘守钦,周林,等.2011-2015年济南市居民循环系统疾病死亡流行病学特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2017,44(1):25-28.
[14]韦贤瑞,陈玲,茹立,等.2013-2015年北海市城乡居民循环系统疾病死亡流行病学特征分析[J].应用预防医学,2018,34(1):28-31.
[15]王红伟.沈阳市城区居民2011-2015年循环系统疾病死亡分析[J].中国卫生统计,2018,35(1):122-123.
[16]张晨曦,汤榕,李相荣,等.银川市2015年居民死亡状况统计分析[J].中国卫生产业,2017,14(33):165-167.
[17]CHEN R,ZHANG Y,YANG C,et al.Acute effect of ambient air pollution on stroke mortality in the China air pollution and health effects study[J].Stroke,2013,44(4):954-960.
[18]KRISHNAN R M,SULLIVAN J H,CARLSTEN C,et al.Arandomized cross-over study of inhalation of diesel exhaust,hematological indices,and endothelial markers in humans[J].Part Fibre Toxicol,2013,10:7.
[19]SHAH A S,LANGRISH J P,NAIR H,et al.Global association of air pollution and heart failure:A systematic review and meta-analysis[J].Lancet,2013,382(9897):1039-1048.
[20]张云权,吴凯,朱慈华,等.武汉大气污染与缺血性心脏病死亡关系季节差异[J].中国公共卫生,2015,31(7):926-929.
[21]齐爱,刘秀英,周健,等.银川市大气颗粒物对人群循环系统疾病死亡影响的时间序列分析[J].环境与健康杂志,2017,34(7):598-602.
[22]张永利,莫哲,易井萍,等.舟山市大气PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数的影响[J].环境与职业医学,2017,34(3):224-229.
[23]国家环境空气质量标准:GB 3095-2012[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012.
[24]陈琦,孙宏,陈晓东,等.南京市臭氧短期暴露人群急性健康效应研究[J].江苏预防医学,2017,28(4):366-368,386.
[25]廖志恒,范绍佳.2006-2012年珠江三角洲地区O3污染对人群健康的影响[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(3):897-905.
[26]LI Y,SHANG Y,ZHENG C,et al.Estimated acute effects of ozone on mortality in a rural district of Beijing,China,2005-2013:a time-stratified case-crossover study[J].Int JEnviron Res Public Health,2018,15(11):2460.
[27]SON J Y,LEE J T,KIM H,et al.Susceptibility to air pollution effects on mortality in Seoul,Korea:a case-crossover analysis of individual-level effect modifiers[J].J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol,2012,22(3):227-234.
[28]LELIEVELD J,EVANS J S,FNAIS M,et al.The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale[J].Nature,2015,525(7569):367-371.
[29]WONG T,TAM W,YU T,et al.Associations between daily mortalities from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in Hong Kong,China[J].Occup Environ Med,2002,59(1):30-35.
[30]ZHANG Y,HUANG W,LONDON S J,et al.Ozone and daily mortality in Shanghai,China[J].Environ Health Perspect,2006,114(8):1227-1232.