我国服务业空间集聚影响因素的研究——基于市场潜力方程的理论与实证分析
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摘要
文章将规模报酬递增的服务部门引入新经济地理分析框架,建立了一个包含服务产品的市场潜力函数,并从理论上证明:(1)一个地区市场潜力大小决定了服务业在该地区的地理集中度;(2)服务业集聚水平与制造业集聚水平存在此消彼长的关系;(3)工资水平是服务业集聚的离心力,工资上涨会阻碍服务业在本地区的集聚。基于理论模型构建的实证方程,文章利用2003—2013年我国30个省市的面板数据证实了上述理论预测。文章最后还讨论了上述结论的政策含义。
引文
Branstetter, L., 2001, “Are Knowledge Spillovers International or Intranational in Scope?” Journal of International Economics, 53(1):53-79.
Brulhart, M. and A. Mathys, 2008, “Sectorial Agglomeration Economics in A Panel of European Regions,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 38(4):348-362.
Corsetti, G., P. Martin and P. Pesenti, 2007, “Productivity, Terms of Trade and the ‘Home Market Effect’,” Journal of International Economics, 73(1):99-127.
Ciccone, A. and R. Hall, 1996, “Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity,” American Economic Review, 86(1):54-70.
Davis, D., 1998, “The Home Market, Trade, and Industrial Structure,” American Economic Review, 88(5):1264-1276.
Ellison, G. and E. Glaeser, 1997, “Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries,” Journal of Political Economy, 105(5):889-927.
Hanson, H., 2005, “Market Potential, Increasing Return and Geographic Concentration,” Journal of International Economics, 65(1):1-24.
Harris, C., 1954, “The Market As a Factor in the Location of Industry in the United States,” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 44(4):315-348.
Head, K. and T. Mayer, 2006, “Regional Wage and Employment Responses to Market Potential in the EU,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 36(5):573-594.
Head, K. and T. Mayer, 2011, “Gravity, Market Potential, and Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Geography, 11(2):281-294.
Henderson, V., 2003, “Marshall's Economies,” Journal of Urban Economics, 53(1):1-28.
Hering, L. and S. Poncet, 2010, “Market Access Impact on Individual Wages,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1):145-159.
Hirschman, A., 1958, The Strategy of Economic Development, New Haven: Yale University Press.
Irwin, D. and P. Klenow, 1994, “Learning Spillovers in the Semi-Conductor Industry,” Journal Political Economy, 102(6):1200-27.
Jaffe, A., M. Trajtenberg and R. Henderson, 1993. “Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations,” Quarterly Journal Economics 108(3):577-98.
Keller, W., 2004, “International Technology Diffusion,” Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3):752-782.
Kiso, T, 2005, “Does New Economic Geography Explain the Spatial Distribution of Wages in Japan?” Mimeo, University of Tokyo.
Liu, D. and C. Meissner, 2015, “Market Potential and the Rise of US Productivity Leadership,” Journal of International Economics, 96(1):72-87.
Myrdal, G., 1957, Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions, London: Duckworth.
Venables, A., 1996, “Equilibrium Locations of Vertically Linked Industries,” International Economic Review, 37(2):341-359.
Venables, A., 2010, “Economic Geography and African Development,” Papers in Regional Science, 89(3):469-483.
Yang, Y., 2014, “Market Potential, Industrial Density and Revenue of Tourism Firms in China,” Tourism Economics, 20 (6):1253-1275.
范剑勇和张雁,2009,《经济地理与地区间工资差异》,《经济研究》第8期73—84页。
何骏,2011,《长三角区域服务业发展与集聚研究》,《上海经济研究》第8期11—20页。
梁琦,2004,《产业集聚论》,商务印书馆。
刘修岩、贺小海和殷醒民,2007,《市场潜能与地区工资差距:基于中国地级面板数据的实证研究》, 《管理世界》第9期48—55页。
申朴和刘康兵,2013,《上海生活性服务发展水平及结构状况——基于投入—产出表的国际比较分析》,《世界经济文汇》第1期41—52页。
申朴、刘康兵和尹翔硕,2015,《产业集聚对我国服务外包生产率的影响》,《产业经济研究》第1期45—52页。
藤田昌久、克鲁格曼和维纳布尔斯,2005,《空间经济学:城市、区域与国际贸易》,中国人民大学出版社。
赵永亮,2012,《市场获得、边界效应与经济集聚》,《中国工业经济》第3期69—81页。
(1)转引自Head, K. and T. Mayer, 2004,“Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Investment in the European Union,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(4):959-972。
(2)名义市场潜力,即Harris(1954)意义上的市场潜力,由经过各地区与中心市场间距离贴现后的消费总支出之和构成,实际市场潜力则是经由距离和各地区供给指数双重贴现后的消费总支出之和。因为供给指数与本地工业价格指数负相关,所以被赋予“实际”的含义。从理论上看,名义市场潜力是纯粹由需求构成的市场可获得性大小的测度,而实际市场潜力因为考虑供给指数的影响而更科学,且有严谨的微观基础。但在实证分析中,估计实际市场潜力所需的(供给指数的)价格信息并不能直接观测到,现有文献基本上都是依据Redding and Venables (2004)的方法,借助各地区的进口和出口固定效应间接估计,加上一些其他的原因,使其估计效果并不理想。Head and Mayer(2004)发现,“理论得不偿失”(theory doesn't pay),当实证模型中包含有着坚实理论基础,充分考虑各种可能影响的实际市场潜力时,其估计参数大小和拟合优度都比包含名义市场潜力的模型要小得多。Head and Mayer(2006)也表明名义市场潜力的表现要胜过实际市场潜力。
(1)参见《经济日报》:《结构调整迎来重要转折点》,2016年2月22日。
(2)参见中华人民共和国商务部综合司:《中国服务贸易状况》,2016年5月10日。
Brulhart, M. and A. Mathys, 2008, “Sectorial Agglomeration Economics in A Panel of European Regions,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 38(4):348-362.
Corsetti, G., P. Martin and P. Pesenti, 2007, “Productivity, Terms of Trade and the ‘Home Market Effect’,” Journal of International Economics, 73(1):99-127.
Ciccone, A. and R. Hall, 1996, “Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity,” American Economic Review, 86(1):54-70.
Davis, D., 1998, “The Home Market, Trade, and Industrial Structure,” American Economic Review, 88(5):1264-1276.
Ellison, G. and E. Glaeser, 1997, “Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries,” Journal of Political Economy, 105(5):889-927.
Hanson, H., 2005, “Market Potential, Increasing Return and Geographic Concentration,” Journal of International Economics, 65(1):1-24.
Harris, C., 1954, “The Market As a Factor in the Location of Industry in the United States,” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 44(4):315-348.
Head, K. and T. Mayer, 2006, “Regional Wage and Employment Responses to Market Potential in the EU,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 36(5):573-594.
Head, K. and T. Mayer, 2011, “Gravity, Market Potential, and Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Geography, 11(2):281-294.
Henderson, V., 2003, “Marshall's Economies,” Journal of Urban Economics, 53(1):1-28.
Hering, L. and S. Poncet, 2010, “Market Access Impact on Individual Wages,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1):145-159.
Hirschman, A., 1958, The Strategy of Economic Development, New Haven: Yale University Press.
Irwin, D. and P. Klenow, 1994, “Learning Spillovers in the Semi-Conductor Industry,” Journal Political Economy, 102(6):1200-27.
Jaffe, A., M. Trajtenberg and R. Henderson, 1993. “Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations,” Quarterly Journal Economics 108(3):577-98.
Keller, W., 2004, “International Technology Diffusion,” Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3):752-782.
Kiso, T, 2005, “Does New Economic Geography Explain the Spatial Distribution of Wages in Japan?” Mimeo, University of Tokyo.
Liu, D. and C. Meissner, 2015, “Market Potential and the Rise of US Productivity Leadership,” Journal of International Economics, 96(1):72-87.
Myrdal, G., 1957, Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions, London: Duckworth.
Venables, A., 1996, “Equilibrium Locations of Vertically Linked Industries,” International Economic Review, 37(2):341-359.
Venables, A., 2010, “Economic Geography and African Development,” Papers in Regional Science, 89(3):469-483.
Yang, Y., 2014, “Market Potential, Industrial Density and Revenue of Tourism Firms in China,” Tourism Economics, 20 (6):1253-1275.
范剑勇和张雁,2009,《经济地理与地区间工资差异》,《经济研究》第8期73—84页。
何骏,2011,《长三角区域服务业发展与集聚研究》,《上海经济研究》第8期11—20页。
梁琦,2004,《产业集聚论》,商务印书馆。
刘修岩、贺小海和殷醒民,2007,《市场潜能与地区工资差距:基于中国地级面板数据的实证研究》, 《管理世界》第9期48—55页。
申朴和刘康兵,2013,《上海生活性服务发展水平及结构状况——基于投入—产出表的国际比较分析》,《世界经济文汇》第1期41—52页。
申朴、刘康兵和尹翔硕,2015,《产业集聚对我国服务外包生产率的影响》,《产业经济研究》第1期45—52页。
藤田昌久、克鲁格曼和维纳布尔斯,2005,《空间经济学:城市、区域与国际贸易》,中国人民大学出版社。
赵永亮,2012,《市场获得、边界效应与经济集聚》,《中国工业经济》第3期69—81页。
(1)转引自Head, K. and T. Mayer, 2004,“Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Investment in the European Union,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(4):959-972。
(2)名义市场潜力,即Harris(1954)意义上的市场潜力,由经过各地区与中心市场间距离贴现后的消费总支出之和构成,实际市场潜力则是经由距离和各地区供给指数双重贴现后的消费总支出之和。因为供给指数与本地工业价格指数负相关,所以被赋予“实际”的含义。从理论上看,名义市场潜力是纯粹由需求构成的市场可获得性大小的测度,而实际市场潜力因为考虑供给指数的影响而更科学,且有严谨的微观基础。但在实证分析中,估计实际市场潜力所需的(供给指数的)价格信息并不能直接观测到,现有文献基本上都是依据Redding and Venables (2004)的方法,借助各地区的进口和出口固定效应间接估计,加上一些其他的原因,使其估计效果并不理想。Head and Mayer(2004)发现,“理论得不偿失”(theory doesn't pay),当实证模型中包含有着坚实理论基础,充分考虑各种可能影响的实际市场潜力时,其估计参数大小和拟合优度都比包含名义市场潜力的模型要小得多。Head and Mayer(2006)也表明名义市场潜力的表现要胜过实际市场潜力。
(1)参见《经济日报》:《结构调整迎来重要转折点》,2016年2月22日。
(2)参见中华人民共和国商务部综合司:《中国服务贸易状况》,2016年5月10日。