基于突变理论的北京市水资源安全分析
|
摘要
在社会经济不断发展的大背景下,水资源安全的重要性日益突显,水资源短缺已成为北京市经济与社会发展的主要制约因素之一。鉴于水资源系统的复杂性和突跳性,基于突变理论,建立水资源安全尖点突变模型,利用突变评价法对模型变量进行量化归一计算,寻求表征北京市水资源安全状态的变量(水资源与社会经济发展协调度)与其两类控制变量(水量和水质)的关系,得出了保障北京市社会经济发展的水量供需差值的安全下限,并对远景年份(2020、2030年)的水资源安全状况进行了评估,为北京市水资源可持续管理提供依据。
In the context of the rapid development of social economy,the security of water resources is increasingly important. Due to the complexity and catastrophic nature of water resources system,this paper,based on catastrophe theory,establishes a cusp catastrophe model to formulate the relationship between the variable representing the state of Beijing's water resources security and its two influencing factors( water volume and water quality). Catastrophe Assessment Method is used to normalize and combine specific indices. The lower limit of the difference between water supply and demand to guarantee Beijing's stable social economic development is determined,according as which water security situations of year 2020 and 2030 are evaluated to support better management of Beijing's water resources.
In the context of the rapid development of social economy,the security of water resources is increasingly important. Due to the complexity and catastrophic nature of water resources system,this paper,based on catastrophe theory,establishes a cusp catastrophe model to formulate the relationship between the variable representing the state of Beijing's water resources security and its two influencing factors( water volume and water quality). Catastrophe Assessment Method is used to normalize and combine specific indices. The lower limit of the difference between water supply and demand to guarantee Beijing's stable social economic development is determined,according as which water security situations of year 2020 and 2030 are evaluated to support better management of Beijing's water resources.
引文
[1]张玉山,李继清,梅艳艳,等.基于突变理论的天津市水资源安全阈值分析模型[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2013,(4):562-567.
[2]郦建强,王建生,颜勇.我国水资源安全现状与主要存在问题分析[J].中国水利,2011(23):42-51.
[3]Leeuwen C J V,Frijns J,Wezel A V,et al.City Blueprints:24 Indicators to Assess the Sustainability of the Urban Water Cycle[J].Water Resources Management,2012,26(8):2 177-2 197.
[4]贾绍凤,张士锋.海河流域水资源安全评价[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(4):379-387.
[5]Schneider K,Turner J L,Jaffe A,et al.Choke point china:confronting water scarcity and energy demand in the world's largest country.[J].Vermont Journal of Environmental Law,2011.
[6]高媛媛,王红瑞,许新宜,等.水资源安全评价模型构建与应用——以福建省泉州市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):204-214.
[7]Lu S,Bao H,Pan H.Urban water security evaluation based on similarity measure model of Vague sets[J].International Journal of Hydrogen Energy,2016.
[8]孙雪峰,于莲.水生态系统的突变模型[J].水科学与工程技术,2007,(1):39-41.
[9]李继清,张玉山,纪昌明,等.突变理论在长江流域洪灾综合风险社会评价中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2007,40(4):26-30.
[10]Chen Y,Zhang S,Zhang Y,et al.Comprehensive assessment and hierarchical management of the sustainable utilization of urban water resources based on catastrophe theory[J].Journal of the Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers,2016,60:430-437.
[11]Catastrophe Theory[M].Springer Berlin Heidelberg,1992,196.
[12]王文俊,张树深,刘素玲,等.基于突变理论的营口近岸海域环境灾害性风险分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2010,29(s1):184-190.
[13]汪党献,王浩,马静.中国区域发展的水资源支撑能力[J].水利学报,2000,(11):21-26.
[14]程辉,尚琳琳,牛彦涛,等.基于灰色系统模型的北京市需水量预测分析[J].广东水利水电,2013,(7):55-58.
[15]北京市“十二五”时期水资源保护及利用规划[J].北京水务,2012,(2):13-18,23.
[2]郦建强,王建生,颜勇.我国水资源安全现状与主要存在问题分析[J].中国水利,2011(23):42-51.
[3]Leeuwen C J V,Frijns J,Wezel A V,et al.City Blueprints:24 Indicators to Assess the Sustainability of the Urban Water Cycle[J].Water Resources Management,2012,26(8):2 177-2 197.
[4]贾绍凤,张士锋.海河流域水资源安全评价[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(4):379-387.
[5]Schneider K,Turner J L,Jaffe A,et al.Choke point china:confronting water scarcity and energy demand in the world's largest country.[J].Vermont Journal of Environmental Law,2011.
[6]高媛媛,王红瑞,许新宜,等.水资源安全评价模型构建与应用——以福建省泉州市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):204-214.
[7]Lu S,Bao H,Pan H.Urban water security evaluation based on similarity measure model of Vague sets[J].International Journal of Hydrogen Energy,2016.
[8]孙雪峰,于莲.水生态系统的突变模型[J].水科学与工程技术,2007,(1):39-41.
[9]李继清,张玉山,纪昌明,等.突变理论在长江流域洪灾综合风险社会评价中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2007,40(4):26-30.
[10]Chen Y,Zhang S,Zhang Y,et al.Comprehensive assessment and hierarchical management of the sustainable utilization of urban water resources based on catastrophe theory[J].Journal of the Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers,2016,60:430-437.
[11]Catastrophe Theory[M].Springer Berlin Heidelberg,1992,196.
[12]王文俊,张树深,刘素玲,等.基于突变理论的营口近岸海域环境灾害性风险分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2010,29(s1):184-190.
[13]汪党献,王浩,马静.中国区域发展的水资源支撑能力[J].水利学报,2000,(11):21-26.
[14]程辉,尚琳琳,牛彦涛,等.基于灰色系统模型的北京市需水量预测分析[J].广东水利水电,2013,(7):55-58.
[15]北京市“十二五”时期水资源保护及利用规划[J].北京水务,2012,(2):13-18,23.