基于情景分析与多准则评价的集体林经营规划方法研究
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摘要
以河南省重点林业县西峡县为研究对象,基于1993—2013年5期森林资源连续清查固定样地数据,1993年、1998年、2003年、2008年、2013年的Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像,以30 a的综合轮伐期为情景模拟期,在土地利用类型监督分类基础上,进行规划情景构建、CAMarkov预测及多准则评价。结果表明:研究区2013—2043年森林经营规划,可以构建为资源破坏、生态保护、协调发展3种规划情景;CA-Markov预测分析表明,与规划基期相比,生态保护与协调发展2种情景的土地利用类型面积比例相差不大,而资源破坏情景的土地利用类型面积比例变动较大;采用林地利用率、阔叶林比例、森林碳密度、森林单位面积蓄积量、大径材比例5个指标作为评价准则对情景规划方案进行评价,协调发展情景最优,生态保护次之,资源破坏最差。
Xixia which is a key forest county in Henan Province was chosen as a case study area. Fixed sampling data of the forest resources from 1993 to 2013 was collected as the main information source,Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI imageries in 1993,1998,2003,2008 and 2013 were gathered as the auxiliary materials,while the 30-year comprehensive rotation was selected as the prediction period. CA-Markov was run and multi-criteria evaluation of planning scenarios was carried out on the basis of supervised classification of land use types in the study area. Research results show that: 3 planning scenarios named resource damage,ecological protection and coordinated development,were designed for the forest management planning in the study area from 2013 to 2043. The CA-Markov model shows that,compared with the land-use type in planning base period,the proportions of land-use types in 2 planning scenarios of ecological protection and coordinated development were almost the same,while the proportion of the land-use types in the resource damage were greatly different. 5 indexes of forest land use ratio,broad-leaved forest proportion,forest carbon density,forest unit area stock volume and large diameter timber proportion were calculated to evaluate the performance of 3 planning scenarios. The coordinated development scenario was the best,followed by ecological protection,and the resource damage was the worst.
Xixia which is a key forest county in Henan Province was chosen as a case study area. Fixed sampling data of the forest resources from 1993 to 2013 was collected as the main information source,Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI imageries in 1993,1998,2003,2008 and 2013 were gathered as the auxiliary materials,while the 30-year comprehensive rotation was selected as the prediction period. CA-Markov was run and multi-criteria evaluation of planning scenarios was carried out on the basis of supervised classification of land use types in the study area. Research results show that: 3 planning scenarios named resource damage,ecological protection and coordinated development,were designed for the forest management planning in the study area from 2013 to 2043. The CA-Markov model shows that,compared with the land-use type in planning base period,the proportions of land-use types in 2 planning scenarios of ecological protection and coordinated development were almost the same,while the proportion of the land-use types in the resource damage were greatly different. 5 indexes of forest land use ratio,broad-leaved forest proportion,forest carbon density,forest unit area stock volume and large diameter timber proportion were calculated to evaluate the performance of 3 planning scenarios. The coordinated development scenario was the best,followed by ecological protection,and the resource damage was the worst.
引文
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[2]国家林业局.简明森林经营方案编制技术规程:LY/T2008—2012[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012.
[3]张光坤.科学编制县级森林经营规划,为森林可持续经营提供依据[J].华东森林经理,2011,25(4):17-18,21.
[4]常禹,布仁仓.地理信息系统与基于个体的空间直观景观模型[J].生态学杂志,2001,20(2):61-65.
[5]宋博,陈晨.情景规划方法的理论探源、行动框架及其应用意义:探索超越“工具理性”的战略规划决策平台[J].城市规划学刊,2013(5):69-78.
[6]张秋明,史庆瑞.采用多准则决策分析技术评估技改项目[J].中国软科学,1997(2):70-73.
[7]Shang Z,He H S,Xi W,et al.Integrating LANDIS model and a multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate cumulative effects of forest management in the Missouri Ozarks,USA[J].Ecological Modelling,2012,229:50-63.
[8]西峡县地方史志编纂委员会.西峡县志:1986—2000[M].郑州:中州古籍出版社,2010.
[9]Carver S J.Integrating multi-criteria evaluation with geographical information systems[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Systems,1991,5(3):321-339.
[10]Malczewski J.GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis:a survey of the literature[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2006,20(7):703-726.
[11]杨青生,黎夏.多智能体与元胞自动机结合及城市用地扩张模拟[J].地理科学,2007,27(4):542-548.
[12]王水献,董新光,寇文.马尔柯夫过程预测焉耆盆地土地利用/覆被格局变化[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(10):28-33.
[13]Diamond J T,Wright J R.Design of an integrated spatial information system for multiobjective land-use planning[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,1988,15(2):205-214.
[14]张茂震,王广兴,刘安兴.基于森林资源连续清查资料估算的浙江省森林生物量及生产力[J].林业科学,2009,45(9):13-17.