宝鸡市冰雹灾害风险区划研究
|
摘要
采用宝鸡12个县区1961—2016年的降雹资料、防雹炮点分布和耕地防护资料,结合宝鸡市DEM高程、地貌类型、土地利用分布等地理信息基础数据;人口密度、经济密度、各县市农业人口占比、耕地面积占比、农业生产总值占比、人均GDP等社会经济资料;选取致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度和承灾体脆弱性3个评价因子,利用ArcGIS的空间栅格计算、自然间断分类和图斑合并等功能进行宝鸡市冰雹灾害风险区划研究。结果表明:宝鸡市冰雹灾害风险以中、高度风险区为主,多出现在北部低山区和台塬区,其中陇县雹灾风险指数最大,城市中心区以及南部高山区以低风险区为主。
In this paper, multiple data sources were used to carry out the risk zoning of hail disaster in Baoji. The collected data include hail records of 12 counties of Baoji during 1961—2016, anti-hail canon stations, records of cultivated land protected by canons, DEM, landform type, land use, population density, economic density, proportion of agricultural population in each county, proportion of cultivated land area, proportion of agricultural production and per capita GDP. The risk level of disaster-inducing factors, the exposure of disaster bearing body and the vulnerability of disaster bearing body were selected as evaluation factors and the indices system of evaluation factors were based on the collected data. Grid computing, classification and spot merging of ArcGIS software were used to generate the final zoning map. Results show that hail disaster in Baoji is mainly at middle and high risk level. Serious disaster generally occurs in the northern low mountain area and the tableland area, among which Longxian has the highest risk level. The central urban area and the southern alpine region are mainly at low risk level.
In this paper, multiple data sources were used to carry out the risk zoning of hail disaster in Baoji. The collected data include hail records of 12 counties of Baoji during 1961—2016, anti-hail canon stations, records of cultivated land protected by canons, DEM, landform type, land use, population density, economic density, proportion of agricultural population in each county, proportion of cultivated land area, proportion of agricultural production and per capita GDP. The risk level of disaster-inducing factors, the exposure of disaster bearing body and the vulnerability of disaster bearing body were selected as evaluation factors and the indices system of evaluation factors were based on the collected data. Grid computing, classification and spot merging of ArcGIS software were used to generate the final zoning map. Results show that hail disaster in Baoji is mainly at middle and high risk level. Serious disaster generally occurs in the northern low mountain area and the tableland area, among which Longxian has the highest risk level. The central urban area and the southern alpine region are mainly at low risk level.
引文
[1] 李晶.气候变化对降水与极端天气气候的影响略述[J].地下水,2016,38(2):131-132.LI Jing.The impact of climate change on precipitation and extreme weather and climate is briefly related to[J].Ground Water,2016,38(2):131-132.(in Chinese)
[2] 张建康.基于ArcGIS技术的榆林市冰雹灾害风险区划[J].农业灾害研究,2015,5(12):32-34.ZHANG Jiankang.Hail disaster risk zoning based on ArcGIS technology in Yulin[J].Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology,2015,5(12):32-34.(in Chinese)
[3] 苗爱梅.基于GIS的山西省冰雹灾害风险区划研究[C]//第34届中国气象学会年会S5应对气候变化、低碳发展与生态文明建设论文集[C].中国气象学会,2017:11.MIAO Aimei.Research on the risk zoning of hail disaster in Shanxi Province Based on GIS[C]//China Meteorological Society.The thirty-fourth annual meeting of China Meteorological Society's annual meeting on climate change,low carbon development and ecological civilization construction[C].China Meteorological Society,2017:11.(in Chinese)
[4] 刘引鸽,慕建利,葛永刚.宝鸡渭北冰雹时空分布规律[J].陕西气象,2006(3):6-8.LIU Yinge,MU Jianli,GE Yonggang.Spatial and temporal distribution of Hail in Weibei,Baoji[J].Shaanxi Meteorological,2006(3):6-8.(in Chinese)
[5] 周兰,岳耀杰,栗健,等.冰雹灾害承灾个体脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):330-337.ZHOU Lan,YUE Yaojie,LI Jian,et al.Research progress on assessment of individual vulnerability to hail disasters[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(3):330-337.(in Chinese)
[6] 李星苇,孙震,孙桂丽,等.冰雹灾害对阿克苏地区果树的影响分析[J/OL].农业灾害研究,2016,6(8):32-35.LI Xingwei,SUN Zhen,SUN Guili,et al.Effects of hail disaster on fruit trees in Akesu area[J/OL].Journal of Agricolcoral Catastrophology,2016,6(8):32-35.(in Chinese)
[7] 万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.陕西地区1368—2013年冰雹灾害时空分布特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):123-127.WAN Honglian,SONG Hailong,ZHU Chanchan,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of hail disaster in Shaanxi area in 1368—2013 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(2):123-127.(in Chinese)
[8] 董鹏捷,王建捷.北京地区冰雹灾害风险评估模型及风险区划[J].暴雨灾害,2012,31(1):29-34.DONG Pengjie,WANG Jianjie.Hail disaster risk assessment model and risk zoning in Beijing area[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2012,31(1):29-34.(in Chinese)
[9] 罗培.GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型——以重庆地区冰雹灾害为例[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):38-44.LUO Pei.GIS based meteorological disaster risk assessment model:a case study of hail disaster in Chongqing area[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(1):38-44.(in Chinese)
[10] 刘杨宾,叶涛,赵金涛,等.基于统计建模与随机事件仿真的农作物冰雹灾害风险评估——以河北省为例[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2013,49(5):496-500.LIU Yangbin,YE Tao,ZHAO Jintao,et al.Risk assessment of Hail Disaster Based on statistical modeling and random event simulation——Taking Hebei as an example[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University:Natural Science,2013,49(5):496-500.(in Chinese)
[11] 李培仁,孙鸿娉,李军霞.冰雹对苹果的灾损模式研究[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(2):84-88.LI Peiren,SUN Hongping,LI Junxia.Damage patterns of hailstones to apples[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2006,27(2):84-88.(in Chinese)
[12] 周兰,岳耀杰,栗健,等.冰雹灾害承灾个体脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):330-337.ZHOU Lan,YUE Yaojie,LI Jian,et al.Research progress on vulnerability assessment of hail disaster bearing[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(3):330-337.(in Chinese)
[13] 尹圆圆,赵金涛,王静爱.安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(7):958-964.YIN Yuanyuan,ZHAO Jintao,WANG Jingai.Risk regionalization of hail disaster in Anhui province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(7):958-964.(in Chinese)
[14] 李丽华,陈洪武,毛炜峄,等.基于GIS的阿克苏地区冰雹灾害风险区划及评价[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(2):224-229.LI Lihua,CHEN Hongwu,MAO Weiyi,et al.Hail disaster risk zoning and evaluation based on GIS in Akesu area[J].Arid Zone Research,2010,27(2):224-229.(in Chinese)
[15] 央金卓玛,列杰班宗,央金白姆.GIS支持下的西藏冰雹灾害风险评估模型[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(2):69-74.YANG Chendolma,LIE Jiebanzong,YANG Chenbaimu.GIS hail disaster risk assessment model supported by GIS [J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2016,36(2):69-74.(in Chinese)
[16] 张永红,葛徽衍,郭建茂.冰雹灾害风险区划研究[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(31):12385-12386,12391.ZHANG Yonghong,GE Huiyan,GUO Jianmao.Hail disaster risk zoning study[J].Journal of Anhui Agri,2013,41(31):12385-12386,12391.(in Chinese)
[2] 张建康.基于ArcGIS技术的榆林市冰雹灾害风险区划[J].农业灾害研究,2015,5(12):32-34.ZHANG Jiankang.Hail disaster risk zoning based on ArcGIS technology in Yulin[J].Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology,2015,5(12):32-34.(in Chinese)
[3] 苗爱梅.基于GIS的山西省冰雹灾害风险区划研究[C]//第34届中国气象学会年会S5应对气候变化、低碳发展与生态文明建设论文集[C].中国气象学会,2017:11.MIAO Aimei.Research on the risk zoning of hail disaster in Shanxi Province Based on GIS[C]//China Meteorological Society.The thirty-fourth annual meeting of China Meteorological Society's annual meeting on climate change,low carbon development and ecological civilization construction[C].China Meteorological Society,2017:11.(in Chinese)
[4] 刘引鸽,慕建利,葛永刚.宝鸡渭北冰雹时空分布规律[J].陕西气象,2006(3):6-8.LIU Yinge,MU Jianli,GE Yonggang.Spatial and temporal distribution of Hail in Weibei,Baoji[J].Shaanxi Meteorological,2006(3):6-8.(in Chinese)
[5] 周兰,岳耀杰,栗健,等.冰雹灾害承灾个体脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):330-337.ZHOU Lan,YUE Yaojie,LI Jian,et al.Research progress on assessment of individual vulnerability to hail disasters[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(3):330-337.(in Chinese)
[6] 李星苇,孙震,孙桂丽,等.冰雹灾害对阿克苏地区果树的影响分析[J/OL].农业灾害研究,2016,6(8):32-35.LI Xingwei,SUN Zhen,SUN Guili,et al.Effects of hail disaster on fruit trees in Akesu area[J/OL].Journal of Agricolcoral Catastrophology,2016,6(8):32-35.(in Chinese)
[7] 万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.陕西地区1368—2013年冰雹灾害时空分布特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):123-127.WAN Honglian,SONG Hailong,ZHU Chanchan,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of hail disaster in Shaanxi area in 1368—2013 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(2):123-127.(in Chinese)
[8] 董鹏捷,王建捷.北京地区冰雹灾害风险评估模型及风险区划[J].暴雨灾害,2012,31(1):29-34.DONG Pengjie,WANG Jianjie.Hail disaster risk assessment model and risk zoning in Beijing area[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2012,31(1):29-34.(in Chinese)
[9] 罗培.GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型——以重庆地区冰雹灾害为例[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):38-44.LUO Pei.GIS based meteorological disaster risk assessment model:a case study of hail disaster in Chongqing area[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(1):38-44.(in Chinese)
[10] 刘杨宾,叶涛,赵金涛,等.基于统计建模与随机事件仿真的农作物冰雹灾害风险评估——以河北省为例[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2013,49(5):496-500.LIU Yangbin,YE Tao,ZHAO Jintao,et al.Risk assessment of Hail Disaster Based on statistical modeling and random event simulation——Taking Hebei as an example[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University:Natural Science,2013,49(5):496-500.(in Chinese)
[11] 李培仁,孙鸿娉,李军霞.冰雹对苹果的灾损模式研究[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(2):84-88.LI Peiren,SUN Hongping,LI Junxia.Damage patterns of hailstones to apples[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2006,27(2):84-88.(in Chinese)
[12] 周兰,岳耀杰,栗健,等.冰雹灾害承灾个体脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):330-337.ZHOU Lan,YUE Yaojie,LI Jian,et al.Research progress on vulnerability assessment of hail disaster bearing[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(3):330-337.(in Chinese)
[13] 尹圆圆,赵金涛,王静爱.安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(7):958-964.YIN Yuanyuan,ZHAO Jintao,WANG Jingai.Risk regionalization of hail disaster in Anhui province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(7):958-964.(in Chinese)
[14] 李丽华,陈洪武,毛炜峄,等.基于GIS的阿克苏地区冰雹灾害风险区划及评价[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(2):224-229.LI Lihua,CHEN Hongwu,MAO Weiyi,et al.Hail disaster risk zoning and evaluation based on GIS in Akesu area[J].Arid Zone Research,2010,27(2):224-229.(in Chinese)
[15] 央金卓玛,列杰班宗,央金白姆.GIS支持下的西藏冰雹灾害风险评估模型[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(2):69-74.YANG Chendolma,LIE Jiebanzong,YANG Chenbaimu.GIS hail disaster risk assessment model supported by GIS [J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2016,36(2):69-74.(in Chinese)
[16] 张永红,葛徽衍,郭建茂.冰雹灾害风险区划研究[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(31):12385-12386,12391.ZHANG Yonghong,GE Huiyan,GUO Jianmao.Hail disaster risk zoning study[J].Journal of Anhui Agri,2013,41(31):12385-12386,12391.(in Chinese)