基于ISM与AHP的斜拉桥主梁施工阶段风险分析
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摘要
以喀腊塑克水库特大桥为背景,运用解释结构模型(ISM)对该特大桥主梁施工阶段风险因素进行分析,通过建立多层递阶结构模型,明确风险因素上下级之间的关系,找出施工阶段中存在的表层、中间层和深层风险;再运用层次分析法(AHP)对主要的风险因素进行定性与定量的综合分析,通过对风险因素的权重比较,找出主要的风险源。结果表明:主梁施工阶段出现的风险因素中,施工技术风险和人因风险是影响主梁施工安全的主要风险,控制和监督主梁施工阶段的风险可以从这两点入手。合理、可靠的结论为该工程以及类似工程施工过程中的风险分析提供参考,以降低施工阶段风险发生概率。
Based on the background information of Kalasuke bridge,this paper analyzes the risk factors of the main girder of the bridge at the construction stage by using the interpretation structure model(ISM). Through establishing a multi-layer hierarchical structure model,the relationship between the upper and lower levels of risk factors is clarified,and the superficial,middle and deep risks emerging during the construction stage are identified. Then,we use analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the main risk factors. By comparing the weights of these risk factors,we identify the primary risk sources. The results show that the construction technology risks and human factor risks are the primary risks affecting the construction safety of the main girder at the construction stage. The control on corresponding risks can start from these two points. The results of this study can provide references for the risk analysis during the construction process of Kalasuke bridge as well as other similar projects. As a result,the probability of risk occurrence can be reduced at the construction stage.
Based on the background information of Kalasuke bridge,this paper analyzes the risk factors of the main girder of the bridge at the construction stage by using the interpretation structure model(ISM). Through establishing a multi-layer hierarchical structure model,the relationship between the upper and lower levels of risk factors is clarified,and the superficial,middle and deep risks emerging during the construction stage are identified. Then,we use analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the main risk factors. By comparing the weights of these risk factors,we identify the primary risk sources. The results show that the construction technology risks and human factor risks are the primary risks affecting the construction safety of the main girder at the construction stage. The control on corresponding risks can start from these two points. The results of this study can provide references for the risk analysis during the construction process of Kalasuke bridge as well as other similar projects. As a result,the probability of risk occurrence can be reduced at the construction stage.
引文
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[2]Lei Wang.The Risk Assessment and Management of Bridge Construction[J].Journal of Chengdu Technological University,2016.
[3]Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh,Sima Rastgoo.Risk Assessment in Bridge Construction Projects Using Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis Methods Based on Fuzzy Logic[J].ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems,Part B:Mechanical Engineering,2015,1(3):600-603.
[4]Bin Du,Gang Jiang,Xuemin Wang.Analysis of Risk for Reinforced Concrete Deck Through Arch Bridge Falsework During Construction[J].Construction Technology,2015.
[5]Cho T,Kim T S.Probabilistic risk assessment for the construction phases of a bridge construction based on finite element analysis[J].Steel Construction,2008,44(6–7):383-400.
[6]Rafele C.Understanding Project Risk Exposure Using the Two-Dimensional Risk Breakdown Matrix[J].2004.
[7]Jin W L,Kim S H.Using analytic network process and goal programming for interdependent information system project selection[M].Elsevier Science Ltd.2000.
[8]Furuta H,He J,Watanabe E.A Fuzzy Expert System for Damage Assessment Using Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks[J].Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering,2010,11(1):37-45.
[9]陆新鑫,徐秀丽,李雪红,等.基于肯特指数法的桥梁施工安全风险评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(6):165-171.
[10]嵇正永.桥梁工程施工阶段的风险识别与评估研究[D]:北京,北京交通大学,2009.
[11]袁剑波,崔钢,符秋生等.基于网络分析法的公路桥梁施工安全风险评价研究[J].科技进步与对策,2013(11)96-99,100.
[12]刘英富,周可夫.PC斜拉桥参数敏感性分析研究[J].公路工程,2009(5):109-111.
[13]王从陆,吴超,李树清.基于解释结构模型的事故原因层次分析[J].矿业研究与开发,2004(5):77-79.
[14]中华人民共和国铁道部.《铁路混凝土结构耐久性设计规范》TB10005-2010[S].
[15]中华人民共和国交通运输部.公路桥梁和隧道工程设计安全风险评估指南(试行)[S].2011.
[16]孙东生,朱懿,周水兴.基于指数标度的层次分析法在桥梁评定中的应用[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2010,29(6):867-870.
[17]郭进平,陈洪伟,等.基于解释结构模型的安全执行力分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009(3):78-82.