基于改进三角模糊数的变电站建设项目后评价
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摘要
根据电网投资建设项目后评价的特点和要求,建立了变电站建设项目功能效果后评价指标体系,并构建了基于改进三角模糊数的变电站建设项目功能效果后评价模型。采用三角模糊数特征参数的模代替三角模糊数本身参与多属性决策,简化了指标权重的计算过程,弱化了人为主观因素在指标权重确定方面的影响,提升了变电站建设项目功能效果后评价效果。最后,以某500 k V变电站建设项目为例将改进三角模糊数法和多级可拓评价法的计算结果进行对比分析,验证了文中建立模型的有效性和合理性。
According to the characteristics and requirements of post-evaluation on the grid investment and construction project,an evaluation index system of post-evaluation on the function effects for substation construction project is estab-lished,together with a post-evaluation model based on improved triangular fuzzy numbers. By using the modulus ofcharacteristic parameter for triangular fuzzy numbers instead of the numbers themselves to participate in a multi-attri-bute decision-making,the calculation process of index weights is simplified,and the impact of subjective factors on theevaluation results is weakened,thus improving the post-evaluation effect. In the end,a practical 500 k V substation con-struction project is taken as an example to compare and analyze the results calculated by the methods based on im-proved triangular fuzzy numbers and multi-level extension assessment,which verifies the effectiveness and reasonableness of the proposed model.
According to the characteristics and requirements of post-evaluation on the grid investment and construction project,an evaluation index system of post-evaluation on the function effects for substation construction project is estab-lished,together with a post-evaluation model based on improved triangular fuzzy numbers. By using the modulus ofcharacteristic parameter for triangular fuzzy numbers instead of the numbers themselves to participate in a multi-attri-bute decision-making,the calculation process of index weights is simplified,and the impact of subjective factors on theevaluation results is weakened,thus improving the post-evaluation effect. In the end,a practical 500 k V substation con-struction project is taken as an example to compare and analyze the results calculated by the methods based on im-proved triangular fuzzy numbers and multi-level extension assessment,which verifies the effectiveness and reasonableness of the proposed model.
引文
[1]柳睿,杨镜非,程浩忠,等(Liu Rui,Yang Jingfei,Cheng Haozhong,et al).分布式电源并网的综合评价(Comprehensive evaluation of grid-connected distributed generation)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2013,25(1):34-39.
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[5]朱伟剑,金娜,闫贻鹏(Zhu Weijian,Jin Na,Yan Yipeng).基于三角模糊数层次分析的变压器状态检修决策方法(Condition-based transformer decision based on triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process)[J].华东电力(East China Electric Power),2014,42(4):0725-0729.
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[7]马丽叶,卢志刚,胡华伟(Ma Liye,Lu Zhigang,Hu Huawei).基于区间数的城市配电网经济运行模糊综合评价(A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for economic operation of urban distribution network based on interval number)[J].电工技术学报(Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society),2012,27(8):163-171.
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[9]曾鸣,李凌云,马明娟,等(Zeng Ming,Li Lingyun,Ma Mingjuan,et al).基于区间数的智能电网经济效益评价研究(Economic benefits evaluation of smart grid based on interval numbers)[J].华东电力(East China Electric Power),2013,41(2):0249-0253.
[10]唐俊熙,暴英凯,刘文军,等(Tang Junxi,Bao Yingkai,Liu Wenjun,et al).变电操作人因可靠性模糊加权评估方法(Fuzzy weighted method of human reliability assessment in substation operation)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(3):1-5.
[11]沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等(Shen Yangwu,Peng Xiaotao,Shi Tongqin,et al).基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法(A grey comprehensive evaluation method of power quality based on optimal combination weight)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2012,36(10):67-73.
[12]罗毅,李昱龙(Luo Yi,Li Yulong).基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策(Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on entropy weight and grey relational analysis)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2013,37(1):77-81.
[13]李然月,王朝立,王晓卫(Li Ranyue,Wang Chaoli,Wang Xiaowei).基于Prony相对熵的输电线故障综合定位方法(Composite method of transmission line fault location based of Prony relative entropy theory)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(4):56-61,67.
[14]方欢欢,程浩忠,辛洁晴,等(Fang Huanhuan,Cheng Haozhong,Xin Jieqing,et al).配电网规划评估指标体系(Indices system of distribution network planning evaluation)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2013,25(6):106-111.
[15]刘娟,杨新法,姚建刚,等(Liu Juan,Yang Xinfa,Yao Jiangang,et al).供电企业竞争力评价的指标体系设计及应用(Design and application of the index system for the competitiveness evaluation of power supplying enterprises)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2010,22(3):118-122.
[16]王彬,何光宇,梅生伟,等(Wang Bin,He Guangyu,Mei Shengwei,et al).智能电网评估指标体系的构建方法(Construction method of smart grid's assessment index system)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2011,35(23):1-5.
[17]莫菲,陈星莺,余昆,等(Mo Fei,Chen Xingying,Yu Kun,et al).计及风险的城市电网运行安全评价指标体系(Operation security index system of urban power grid considering risk)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(2):1-7,14.
[18]Lilja K K,Laakso K,Palomki J.Using the Delphi method[C]//Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering&Technology.Portland,USA,2011.
[19]欧阳森,石怡理(Ouyang Sen,Shi Yili).改进熵权法及其在电能质量评估中的应用(A new improved entropy method and its application in power quality evaluation)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2013,37(21):156-159,164.
[20]李君宏(Li Junhong).基于模糊综合评价的输变电工程经济效益后评价研究(Study on post-evaluation of economic benefits for the power transmission and transformation project on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation)[J].华北电力大学学报:社会科学版(Journal of North China Electric Power University:Social Sciences),2012(5):42-44.
[21]黄文杰,傅砾,肖盛(Huang Wenjie,Fu Li,Xiao Sheng).采用改进模糊层次分析法的风速预测模型(A predictive model of wind speed based on improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2010,34(7):164-168.
[22]王金燕,陈卫兵,周颖,等(Wang Jinyan,Chen Weibing,Zhou Ying,et al).改进的三角模糊数互反判断矩阵排序算法研究(Study of improved prioritizing algorithm based of triangular fuzzy number reciprocal judgment matrix)[J].计算机工程与应用(Computer Engineering and Applications),2014,50(19):214-216,240.
[23]田林钢,王洁(Tian Lingang,Wang Jie).基于三角模糊数的大坝安全风险综合评判研究(Evaluation research based on the triangular fuzzy number of the dam safety risk)[J].中国农村水利水电(China Rural Water and Hydropower),2013(2):101-103.
[24]郭欣荣(Guo Xinrong).互反型AHP判断矩阵的一致性研究(Research on Consistency of Reciprocal AHP Judgment Matrix)[D].南宁:广西大学数学与信息科学学院(Nanning:College of Mathematics and Information Science,Guangxi University),2007.
[25]王霞(Wang Xia).基于三角模糊数特征参数模的多属性决策(Varied property decision based on trigonometry fuzzy number feature parameter set pair analysis)[J].数学的实践与认识(Mathematics in Practice and Theory),2013,42(13):289-294.
[26]刘秀梅,赵克勤(Liu Xiumei,Zhao Keqin).基于SPA的DU空间的区间数多属性决策模型及应用(Multiple attribute decision making and its applications with interval numbers based on D-U space of SPA)[J].模糊系统与数学(Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics),2009,23(2):167-174.
[27]王纪鹏,欧阳治华,刘夏临(Wang Jipeng,Ouyang Zhihua,Liu Xialin).基于集对分析与三角模糊数的围岩稳定性综合评价模型(Overall evaluation of model for stability of surrounding rocks based on set pair analysis and trigonometry fuzzy number)[J].化工矿物与加工(Industrial Minerals&Procession),2013(5):20-24.
[2]Wang Jingmin,Sun Yanfu.The application of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in technical and economic evaluation of distribution network[C]//International Conference on Management and Service Science.Wuhan,China,2010.
[3]吴传来,杨洪耕,张云红,等(Wu Chuanlai,Yang Honggeng,Zhang Yunhong,et al).考虑指标质量影响权重的电能质量综合评估(Power quality comprehensive evaluation considering the indexes influence on weights)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSUEPSA),2013,25(4):97-102.
[4]曾鸣,鄢帆,田廓,等(Zeng Ming,Yan Fan,Tian Kuo,et al).基于三角模糊数的智能电网投资效益分析(Analysis of investment benefit of smart electric grid based on triangular fuzzy numbers)[J].华东电力(East China Electric Power),2010,38(5):638-641.
[5]朱伟剑,金娜,闫贻鹏(Zhu Weijian,Jin Na,Yan Yipeng).基于三角模糊数层次分析的变压器状态检修决策方法(Condition-based transformer decision based on triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process)[J].华东电力(East China Electric Power),2014,42(4):0725-0729.
[6]孟明,舒展(Meng Ming,Shu Zhan).基于缺陷扣分法和三角模糊数层次分析法的智能电能表全生命周期质量评价(Full quality evaluation on smart meters based on the defect deduction method and the AHP of triangular fuzzy number)[J].电力系统保护与控制(Power System Protection and Control),2012,40(22):88-93.
[7]马丽叶,卢志刚,胡华伟(Ma Liye,Lu Zhigang,Hu Huawei).基于区间数的城市配电网经济运行模糊综合评价(A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for economic operation of urban distribution network based on interval number)[J].电工技术学报(Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society),2012,27(8):163-171.
[8]曾鸣,赵建华,刘宏志,等(Zeng Ming,Zhao Jianhua,Liu Hongzhi,et al).基于区间数的分布式电源投资效益分析(Investment benefit analysis based on interval number for distributed generation)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2012,32(8):22-26,34.
[9]曾鸣,李凌云,马明娟,等(Zeng Ming,Li Lingyun,Ma Mingjuan,et al).基于区间数的智能电网经济效益评价研究(Economic benefits evaluation of smart grid based on interval numbers)[J].华东电力(East China Electric Power),2013,41(2):0249-0253.
[10]唐俊熙,暴英凯,刘文军,等(Tang Junxi,Bao Yingkai,Liu Wenjun,et al).变电操作人因可靠性模糊加权评估方法(Fuzzy weighted method of human reliability assessment in substation operation)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(3):1-5.
[11]沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等(Shen Yangwu,Peng Xiaotao,Shi Tongqin,et al).基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法(A grey comprehensive evaluation method of power quality based on optimal combination weight)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2012,36(10):67-73.
[12]罗毅,李昱龙(Luo Yi,Li Yulong).基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策(Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on entropy weight and grey relational analysis)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2013,37(1):77-81.
[13]李然月,王朝立,王晓卫(Li Ranyue,Wang Chaoli,Wang Xiaowei).基于Prony相对熵的输电线故障综合定位方法(Composite method of transmission line fault location based of Prony relative entropy theory)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(4):56-61,67.
[14]方欢欢,程浩忠,辛洁晴,等(Fang Huanhuan,Cheng Haozhong,Xin Jieqing,et al).配电网规划评估指标体系(Indices system of distribution network planning evaluation)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2013,25(6):106-111.
[15]刘娟,杨新法,姚建刚,等(Liu Juan,Yang Xinfa,Yao Jiangang,et al).供电企业竞争力评价的指标体系设计及应用(Design and application of the index system for the competitiveness evaluation of power supplying enterprises)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2010,22(3):118-122.
[16]王彬,何光宇,梅生伟,等(Wang Bin,He Guangyu,Mei Shengwei,et al).智能电网评估指标体系的构建方法(Construction method of smart grid's assessment index system)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2011,35(23):1-5.
[17]莫菲,陈星莺,余昆,等(Mo Fei,Chen Xingying,Yu Kun,et al).计及风险的城市电网运行安全评价指标体系(Operation security index system of urban power grid considering risk)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(2):1-7,14.
[18]Lilja K K,Laakso K,Palomki J.Using the Delphi method[C]//Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering&Technology.Portland,USA,2011.
[19]欧阳森,石怡理(Ouyang Sen,Shi Yili).改进熵权法及其在电能质量评估中的应用(A new improved entropy method and its application in power quality evaluation)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2013,37(21):156-159,164.
[20]李君宏(Li Junhong).基于模糊综合评价的输变电工程经济效益后评价研究(Study on post-evaluation of economic benefits for the power transmission and transformation project on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation)[J].华北电力大学学报:社会科学版(Journal of North China Electric Power University:Social Sciences),2012(5):42-44.
[21]黄文杰,傅砾,肖盛(Huang Wenjie,Fu Li,Xiao Sheng).采用改进模糊层次分析法的风速预测模型(A predictive model of wind speed based on improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2010,34(7):164-168.
[22]王金燕,陈卫兵,周颖,等(Wang Jinyan,Chen Weibing,Zhou Ying,et al).改进的三角模糊数互反判断矩阵排序算法研究(Study of improved prioritizing algorithm based of triangular fuzzy number reciprocal judgment matrix)[J].计算机工程与应用(Computer Engineering and Applications),2014,50(19):214-216,240.
[23]田林钢,王洁(Tian Lingang,Wang Jie).基于三角模糊数的大坝安全风险综合评判研究(Evaluation research based on the triangular fuzzy number of the dam safety risk)[J].中国农村水利水电(China Rural Water and Hydropower),2013(2):101-103.
[24]郭欣荣(Guo Xinrong).互反型AHP判断矩阵的一致性研究(Research on Consistency of Reciprocal AHP Judgment Matrix)[D].南宁:广西大学数学与信息科学学院(Nanning:College of Mathematics and Information Science,Guangxi University),2007.
[25]王霞(Wang Xia).基于三角模糊数特征参数模的多属性决策(Varied property decision based on trigonometry fuzzy number feature parameter set pair analysis)[J].数学的实践与认识(Mathematics in Practice and Theory),2013,42(13):289-294.
[26]刘秀梅,赵克勤(Liu Xiumei,Zhao Keqin).基于SPA的DU空间的区间数多属性决策模型及应用(Multiple attribute decision making and its applications with interval numbers based on D-U space of SPA)[J].模糊系统与数学(Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics),2009,23(2):167-174.
[27]王纪鹏,欧阳治华,刘夏临(Wang Jipeng,Ouyang Zhihua,Liu Xialin).基于集对分析与三角模糊数的围岩稳定性综合评价模型(Overall evaluation of model for stability of surrounding rocks based on set pair analysis and trigonometry fuzzy number)[J].化工矿物与加工(Industrial Minerals&Procession),2013(5):20-24.