基于灰色模糊聚类的绿色写字楼造价估算研究
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摘要
因绿色写字楼所具有的"模糊性"及其造价估算上的"灰色性"而导致在项目前期阶段往往难以准确、快速地进行造价估算的问题,本文提出了基于灰色关联模糊聚类的绿色写字楼造价估算模型。通过将灰色关联分析和模糊聚类结合运用,分别计算待估价数列和参考数列造价属性指标数据间的灰色关联度和Euclid模糊贴进度,再将二者综合得到原始聚类论域的综合灰色模糊相关贴近度集,通过该贴进度集构造初始数据的相似矩阵,经模糊传递闭包法复合后得到灰色模糊等价矩阵。通过选取不同的阀值对绿色写字楼造价指标数列进行动态聚类,在聚类中筛选出与待估价指标数列最为贴近的造价区间,结合实际情况确定最终估价。研究结果表明,该模型能够快速有效的估算绿色写字楼的工程造价,从而有助于建设方结合资金预算,及时、准确地做出对绿色写字楼的项目投资决策。
To solve the problem that accurate and rapid cost estimation is often difficult to realize in the early stage of green office building project for its "fuzzy" concept and "grey" cost composition, a green office building cost estimation model is proposed based on grey and fuzzy clustering method. By calculating synthetic degree of grey and fuzzy incidence of the design sequence and reference sequences' index to study the similarities between the two. Then the sequences' similarity matrix based on synthetic degree of grey and fuzzy incidence set and equivalent matrix based on transitive closure are built. By selecting different threshold for green office building cost index sequences in order to achieve dynamic cluster, and select the most correlated sequence to get interval of estimated cost, which is the most likely cost range of the design building project, and then combine with the actual situation to determine the final price. The study result show that model is effective and reliable in estimating the project cost, so as to help investors with funds budget, timely, accurately to make the green office building project investment decision.
To solve the problem that accurate and rapid cost estimation is often difficult to realize in the early stage of green office building project for its "fuzzy" concept and "grey" cost composition, a green office building cost estimation model is proposed based on grey and fuzzy clustering method. By calculating synthetic degree of grey and fuzzy incidence of the design sequence and reference sequences' index to study the similarities between the two. Then the sequences' similarity matrix based on synthetic degree of grey and fuzzy incidence set and equivalent matrix based on transitive closure are built. By selecting different threshold for green office building cost index sequences in order to achieve dynamic cluster, and select the most correlated sequence to get interval of estimated cost, which is the most likely cost range of the design building project, and then combine with the actual situation to determine the final price. The study result show that model is effective and reliable in estimating the project cost, so as to help investors with funds budget, timely, accurately to make the green office building project investment decision.
引文
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[6]Jui-Sheng Chou,Anh-Duc Pham,Hsin Wang.Bidding strategy to support decision-making by integrating fuzzy AHP and regression-based simulation[J].Automation in Construction,2013,(35):517-527.
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[11]刘心报.决策分析与决策支持系统[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[2]陈小龙,王立光.基于建筑设计参数分析模型的工程造价估算[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(8):1115-1121.
[3]余建星,段晓晨,张建龙.基于模糊推理系统的政府投资项目投资预测方法[J].统计与决策,2006(16):42-43.
[4]Min-Yuan Cheng,Hsing-Chih Tsai,Wen-Shan Hsieh.Webbased conceptual cost estimates for construction projects using Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Inference Model[J].Automation in Construction,2009,(18):164-172.
[5]胡六星.基于时间序列的建筑工程造价预测研究[J].太原理工大学学报,2012,43(6):706-709.
[6]Jui-Sheng Chou,Anh-Duc Pham,Hsin Wang.Bidding strategy to support decision-making by integrating fuzzy AHP and regression-based simulation[J].Automation in Construction,2013,(35):517-527.
[7]刘思锋,党耀国,方志耕,谢乃民等.灰色系统理论及应用[M].第五版.北京:科学出版社,2010.
[8]罗佑新.灰色模糊聚类分析法在多目标优化设计中的探讨[J].现代机械,1993,(4):7-9.
[9]俞立平,潘云涛.学术期刊综合评价数据标准化方法研究[J].图书情报工作,2009,53:136-139.
[10]申卯兴,薛四峰,张小水.灰色关联分析中分辨系数的选取[J].空军工程大学学报:自然科学版,2003,4(1):68-70.
[11]刘心报.决策分析与决策支持系统[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.