基于T-S模糊故障树的受电弓系统可靠性分析
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摘要
针对动车组受电弓故障统计中历史故障数据的多源异构和数据缺失等问题,同时考虑到受电弓故障的多态性,提出了以信心指数修正的专家调查法结合T-S模糊故障树,对受电弓可靠性进行分析。首先构建动车组受电弓系统的T-S模糊故障树;再对故障树基本事件进行基于信心指数修正的专家调查,得出基本事件模糊故障率;然后根据基本事件模糊故障率计算顶事件模糊可能性和基本事件模糊重要度;最后根据模糊重要度分析系统不同故障状态时影响其可靠性的薄弱环节。该分析结果与动车组的实际情况相符,可为受电弓系统的检修提供参考。
Aiming to solve the problem that the missing or leakage of the multi-source heterogeneous structure and historical fault-registration data in the pantograph fault statistics of EMUs,this paper intends to bring about a method for analyzing the reliability of the pantograph to join the T-S fuzzy fault tree with the expert survey revision of the confidence indexical parameters. For this purpose,we have,first of all,built up a T-S fuzzy fault tree of EMUs influenced by the pantograph system based on the historical accumulation of such data and the suggestions of the system maintenance manager. And,then,an expert investigation has been done for the basic events of the fault tree based on the confidence index correction so as to work out the fuzzy fault rate of the basic events. The eventual results of our analysis prove different from the processing of the expert scoring based on the adoption of the average weight in the traditional expert investigation method based on the degree of the confidence in the survey of experts to give weight,the result of the analysis is more convincing than that obtained by the traditional expert assessment approach.And,finally,we have clarified the fuzzy probability of the top event and the fuzzy significance degrees of the basic events on the basis of the fuzzy fault rate of the basic events in accordance with the degrees of fuzziness. And,next,we have clarified the weak links that are likely to affect its reliability in case the system being in a state of various faults,so as to provide a reference for the maintenance and management of the EMU pantograph and increase its operation reliability. The above mentioned study results show that,when the system remains in a state of complete breakdown,the importance degree of ‘the pressure duct of the pantograph air-leak',‘the pantograph airbag-corruption ' and ‘the pantograph collector air-leakage'should all be getting a lot more serious,which may in turn influence the system failure badly.Needless to say,the other related factors may also aggravate the breakdown of the system,though their effects ought to be minor.Thus,it can be seen that the analysis offered in the present paper turns out to be well in accord with the actual situation of the EMUs system,and,can,therefore,be expected to serve as a reference means for the maintenance of the pantograph system.
Aiming to solve the problem that the missing or leakage of the multi-source heterogeneous structure and historical fault-registration data in the pantograph fault statistics of EMUs,this paper intends to bring about a method for analyzing the reliability of the pantograph to join the T-S fuzzy fault tree with the expert survey revision of the confidence indexical parameters. For this purpose,we have,first of all,built up a T-S fuzzy fault tree of EMUs influenced by the pantograph system based on the historical accumulation of such data and the suggestions of the system maintenance manager. And,then,an expert investigation has been done for the basic events of the fault tree based on the confidence index correction so as to work out the fuzzy fault rate of the basic events. The eventual results of our analysis prove different from the processing of the expert scoring based on the adoption of the average weight in the traditional expert investigation method based on the degree of the confidence in the survey of experts to give weight,the result of the analysis is more convincing than that obtained by the traditional expert assessment approach.And,finally,we have clarified the fuzzy probability of the top event and the fuzzy significance degrees of the basic events on the basis of the fuzzy fault rate of the basic events in accordance with the degrees of fuzziness. And,next,we have clarified the weak links that are likely to affect its reliability in case the system being in a state of various faults,so as to provide a reference for the maintenance and management of the EMU pantograph and increase its operation reliability. The above mentioned study results show that,when the system remains in a state of complete breakdown,the importance degree of ‘the pressure duct of the pantograph air-leak',‘the pantograph airbag-corruption ' and ‘the pantograph collector air-leakage'should all be getting a lot more serious,which may in turn influence the system failure badly.Needless to say,the other related factors may also aggravate the breakdown of the system,though their effects ought to be minor.Thus,it can be seen that the analysis offered in the present paper turns out to be well in accord with the actual situation of the EMUs system,and,can,therefore,be expected to serve as a reference means for the maintenance of the pantograph system.
引文
[1]SONG Longlong(宋龙龙),WANG Taiyong(王太勇),SONG Xiaowen(宋晓文),et al.Fault diagnosis of pantograph type current collector of CRH2electric multiple units based on Petri net modeling and fault tree analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument(仪器仪表学报),2014,35(9):1990-1997.
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[6]SUN Lina(孙利娜),HUANG Ning(黄宁),WU Weiqiang(仵伟强).Performance reliability of polymorphic systems by fuzzy fault tree based on T-S model[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering(机械工程学报),2016,52(10):191-198.
[7]YAO Chengyu(姚成玉),ZHANG Yingyi(张荧驿),CHEN Dongning(陈东宁).Research on T-S fuzzy importance analysis methods[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering(机械工程学报),2011,47(12):163-169.
[8]WILSON A G,HUZURBAZAR A V.Bayesian networks for multilevel system reliability[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2007,92(10):1413-1420.
[9]MARQUEZ D,NEIL M,FENTON N.Improved reliability modeling using Bayesian networks and dynamic discretization[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(4):412-425.
[10]JIA Lu(贾璐).Fault tree analysis of EMU pantograph based on risk management(基于风险管理的动车组受电弓故障树分析)[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2015.
[11]CHEN Gang(陈刚),LIN Jie(林杰).Fault analysis and improvement of pantograph in EMU[J].Chinese Railways(中国铁路),2013(5):94-96.
[12]ZHENG Junjie(郑俊杰),LIN Chifeng(林池峰),ZHAO Dong'an(赵东安).Risk assessment of shield tunnel construction cost using fuzzy fault tree[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering(岩土工程学报),2011,33(4):501-508.
[13]CHEN Long(陈龙),HUANG Hongwei(黄宏伟).Risk loss analysis during construction of soft soil shield tunnel[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering(地下空间与工程学报),2006,2(1):74-78.
[14]WU Jian(吴坚),HUANG Jun(黄俊),LI Shenglian(李升连).Portal instability risk analysis ofh ighway tunnel based on specialists method[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering(地下空间与工程学报),2009,5(S1):1407-1411.
[15]QI J,HU X,GAO X.Quantitative risk analysis of subsea pipeline and riser:an experts’assessment approach using fuzzy fault tree[J].International Journal of Reliability and Safety,2014,8(1):33-50.
[16]CHENG S R.Fault-tree analysis for liquefied natural gas terminal emergency shutdown system[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(9):11918-11924.
[17]LUO Yanbin(罗彦斌),CHEN Jianxun(陈建勋),WANG Mengshu(王梦恕).Method for analyzing the highway tunnel freeze injury based on the T-S fuzzy fault tree theory[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(北京交通大学学报),2012,36(4):55-60,65.
[18]LIU Ping(刘萍),CHENG Xiaoqing(程晓卿),QIN Yong(秦勇).Sliding plug door system reliability analysis based on fuzzy fault tree[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology(中南大学学报:自然科学版),2013,44(S1):310-314.
[19]CUI Tiejun(崔铁军),MA Yundong(马云东).Reliability assessment method based on space fault tree[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics(模糊系统与数学),2015,29(5):173-182.
[2]ZHAO Qiong(赵琼),WANG Sihua(王思华),SHANG Fangning(尚方宁).Reliability analysis of overhead contact line system based on fault tree analysis method[J].Railway Standard Design(铁道标准设计),2014,58(1):105-109.
[3]TANAKA H,FAN L T,LAI F S,et al.Fault-tree analysis by fuzzy probability[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1983,32(5):453-457.
[4]HUA Xiaoyang(华小洋),HU Zongwu(胡宗武),FAN Zuyao(范祖尧).A method to multistate fuzzy fault-tree analysis[J].Journal of Mechanical Strength(机械强度),1998,20(1):37-42.
[5]SONG Hua(宋华),ZHANG Hongyue(张洪钺),WANG Xingren(王行仁).Fuzzy fault tree analysis based on T-S model[J].Control and Decision(控制与决策),2005,20(8):854-859.
[6]SUN Lina(孙利娜),HUANG Ning(黄宁),WU Weiqiang(仵伟强).Performance reliability of polymorphic systems by fuzzy fault tree based on T-S model[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering(机械工程学报),2016,52(10):191-198.
[7]YAO Chengyu(姚成玉),ZHANG Yingyi(张荧驿),CHEN Dongning(陈东宁).Research on T-S fuzzy importance analysis methods[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering(机械工程学报),2011,47(12):163-169.
[8]WILSON A G,HUZURBAZAR A V.Bayesian networks for multilevel system reliability[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2007,92(10):1413-1420.
[9]MARQUEZ D,NEIL M,FENTON N.Improved reliability modeling using Bayesian networks and dynamic discretization[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(4):412-425.
[10]JIA Lu(贾璐).Fault tree analysis of EMU pantograph based on risk management(基于风险管理的动车组受电弓故障树分析)[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2015.
[11]CHEN Gang(陈刚),LIN Jie(林杰).Fault analysis and improvement of pantograph in EMU[J].Chinese Railways(中国铁路),2013(5):94-96.
[12]ZHENG Junjie(郑俊杰),LIN Chifeng(林池峰),ZHAO Dong'an(赵东安).Risk assessment of shield tunnel construction cost using fuzzy fault tree[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering(岩土工程学报),2011,33(4):501-508.
[13]CHEN Long(陈龙),HUANG Hongwei(黄宏伟).Risk loss analysis during construction of soft soil shield tunnel[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering(地下空间与工程学报),2006,2(1):74-78.
[14]WU Jian(吴坚),HUANG Jun(黄俊),LI Shenglian(李升连).Portal instability risk analysis ofh ighway tunnel based on specialists method[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering(地下空间与工程学报),2009,5(S1):1407-1411.
[15]QI J,HU X,GAO X.Quantitative risk analysis of subsea pipeline and riser:an experts’assessment approach using fuzzy fault tree[J].International Journal of Reliability and Safety,2014,8(1):33-50.
[16]CHENG S R.Fault-tree analysis for liquefied natural gas terminal emergency shutdown system[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(9):11918-11924.
[17]LUO Yanbin(罗彦斌),CHEN Jianxun(陈建勋),WANG Mengshu(王梦恕).Method for analyzing the highway tunnel freeze injury based on the T-S fuzzy fault tree theory[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(北京交通大学学报),2012,36(4):55-60,65.
[18]LIU Ping(刘萍),CHENG Xiaoqing(程晓卿),QIN Yong(秦勇).Sliding plug door system reliability analysis based on fuzzy fault tree[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology(中南大学学报:自然科学版),2013,44(S1):310-314.
[19]CUI Tiejun(崔铁军),MA Yundong(马云东).Reliability assessment method based on space fault tree[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics(模糊系统与数学),2015,29(5):173-182.