养老保险个人账户参数设定错误与纠正
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摘要
我国基本养老保险采取统账结合的制度模式。其中,个人账户采用记账方式建立了参保缴费与养老待遇之间的直接联系。理论上,公平和长期可持续的个人账户模式在记账利率、计发系数、余额继承等方面应遵循精算原则,但我国的个人账户参数设定存在不少违背精算公平和精算平衡原则的错误。本文结合国际经验,在剖析我国养老保险个人账户参数设定错误的基础上,基于精算平衡原理,探讨参数设定方法,检验纠正方案对制度精算公平和精算平衡性的效果,最后提出参数改革的具体建议。主要结论是:个人账户的记账利率应该是制度的内含回报率;名义账户的记账利率不是银行存款利率,而应随缴费工资增长率、人口预期寿命的变动等定期调整;养老金计发系数应基于动态生命表、养老金调整指数和个人账户内含回报率的变动而调整。由此确定的参数纠正方案将有效改善制度的精算公平与精算平衡性。因而建议我国基本养老保险个人账户应尽早明确现收现付的筹资模式和账户余额的权益归属,采用动态的记账利率和计发月数,引入自动平衡机制,实现制度的长期精算平衡。
Private accounts have been introduced in basic endowment insurance in China for 20 years, which build up a direct relation between personal insurance contribution and pension payment. However, they confront a series of problems with accumulation and distribution due to improper parameters defined. In order to correct the errors, taking into account the international experience and based on the actuarial balance theory, this paper explores a series of principles for defining parameters, tests the effects of corrections based on institutional actuarial fairness and balance, and finally proposes reforms for parameters defined. It concludes that the bookkeeping interest rate should be the implied rate of returns in the insurance system; the bookkeeping interest rate in the nominal account is not the bank deposit rate and should be periodically adjusted against the changes of the wage growth and life expectancy; the annuity divisor must be adjusted based on the dynamic life tables, the pension adjustment and the implied rate of returns in the private accounts. In such a way, the correction of parameters defined can effectively improve the institutional actuarial fairness and balance. Therefore, it is proposed that the private accounts in the pension insurance be clarified with Pay as You Go(PAYG) as its funding model and with whom the account balances belong to as soon as possible, and they should be also long-term actuarially balanced by adopting dynamic bookkeeping interest rates and months to be paid with an automatically balanced mechanism.
Private accounts have been introduced in basic endowment insurance in China for 20 years, which build up a direct relation between personal insurance contribution and pension payment. However, they confront a series of problems with accumulation and distribution due to improper parameters defined. In order to correct the errors, taking into account the international experience and based on the actuarial balance theory, this paper explores a series of principles for defining parameters, tests the effects of corrections based on institutional actuarial fairness and balance, and finally proposes reforms for parameters defined. It concludes that the bookkeeping interest rate should be the implied rate of returns in the insurance system; the bookkeeping interest rate in the nominal account is not the bank deposit rate and should be periodically adjusted against the changes of the wage growth and life expectancy; the annuity divisor must be adjusted based on the dynamic life tables, the pension adjustment and the implied rate of returns in the private accounts. In such a way, the correction of parameters defined can effectively improve the institutional actuarial fairness and balance. Therefore, it is proposed that the private accounts in the pension insurance be clarified with Pay as You Go(PAYG) as its funding model and with whom the account balances belong to as soon as possible, and they should be also long-term actuarially balanced by adopting dynamic bookkeeping interest rates and months to be paid with an automatically balanced mechanism.
引文
[1]郑秉文.中国养老金发展报告2016——“第二支柱”年金制度全面深化改革[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2016.
[2]Lindbeck A,Persson M.The Gains from Pension Reform [J].Journal of Economic Literature,2003(1):74-112.
[3]王积全.基本养老保险个人账户基金缺口实证研究[J].甘肃社会科学,2005(3):36-39.
[4]宋世斌、冯羽、彭俊.养老保险个人账户调整的分析[J].宏观经济研究,2006(7):42-46.
[5]张勇.基本养老保险体系中个人账户继承比例的优化分析[J].统计研究,2006(7):64-68.
[6]李珍,王海东.基本养老保险个人账户收益率与替代率关系定量分析[J].公共管理学报,2009,6(4):45-51.
[7]王晓军.我国基本养老保险的十个“迷思”[J].保险研究,2013(11):96-104.
[8]王晓军,米海杰.对我国社会养老保险个人账户模式选择的实证分析[J].经济管理,2013,35(6):164-174.
[9]Holzmann R,Palmer E.Pension Reform:Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribution (NDC) Schemes [M].Washington,D.C.:The World Bank,2006.
[10]Samuelson P A.An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money[J].Journal of Political Economy,1958,66(6):467-482.
[11]Aaron H.The Social Insurance Paradox [J].The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1966,32 (3):371-374.
[12]Knell M.Increasing Life Expectancy and Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems [J].Economic Studies,2012(2):1-36.
[13]Oeppen J,Vaupel J.Demography Broken Limits to Life Expectancy [J].Science,2002,296(5570):1029-1031.
[14]Lee R.Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trend [EB/OL].CEDA Paper,2003.
[15]United Nations (Population Division,Department of Economics and Social Affairs.World Population Prospects:The 2015 Revision [EB/OL].United Nations,2015.
(1)2015年底全国个人账户累计记账额达到47144亿元,而所有做实个人账户省份累计结余仅为3274亿元(郑秉文,2016)[1]。即便3274亿元全部为个人账户做实基金,也仅占累计记账额的6. 94%。况且个人账户累计记账额在逐年增加,做实基金在逐年缩减,该比例会越来越小。从这个角度讲,也可认为个人账户在实际运行中为现收现付的制度模式。
(1)稳态环境是指各年龄人口死亡率、工资模式(各年龄平均工资占所有年龄的平均工资的比值)在各个时期保持不变。稳态环境下,IRR等于缴费工资总额增长率,可近似分解为平均工资增长率与缴费人口增长率之和。
(2)以GDP增长率作为制度IRR蕴含着这样一个假设:工资总额占GDP的比例恒定。
(1)用于计算个人账户的目标替代率的“标准人”为缴费35年、60岁退休时的参保者。假设缴费初年工资为w,缴费率为c=35350 . 08,工资增长率为g,个人账户记账利率为i,则缴费35年后的个人账户累计额为c∑w(1+g)n-1(1+i)35-n=c∑w(1+g)35n=1n=1=35cw(1+g)35,领取初年的个人账户养老金为35cw(1+g)35/(139/12),个人账户养老金替代率为35cw(1+g)35/(139/12)/(w(1+g)35)=24. 17%。
(1)现行个人账户计发月数表中60岁退休人口的计发月数为139个月,折合11. 58年。
(2)国发[2005]38号文要求建立基本养老金正常调整机制,调整幅度为在岗职工平均工资年增长率的一定比例。
(3)Oeppen和Vaupel(2002)[13]基于对1840年到2000年的死亡率数据分析,得出了0岁人口预期寿命的线性增长率等于0. 25的结论。Lee(2003)[14]基于对大量数据的分析,证明0岁人口预期寿命的线性增长率在0. 15~0. 25之间。
(1)我国劳动报酬占GDP的比例约为40%左右,而该比例在其他国家大多集中于60%~85%之间。
[2]Lindbeck A,Persson M.The Gains from Pension Reform [J].Journal of Economic Literature,2003(1):74-112.
[3]王积全.基本养老保险个人账户基金缺口实证研究[J].甘肃社会科学,2005(3):36-39.
[4]宋世斌、冯羽、彭俊.养老保险个人账户调整的分析[J].宏观经济研究,2006(7):42-46.
[5]张勇.基本养老保险体系中个人账户继承比例的优化分析[J].统计研究,2006(7):64-68.
[6]李珍,王海东.基本养老保险个人账户收益率与替代率关系定量分析[J].公共管理学报,2009,6(4):45-51.
[7]王晓军.我国基本养老保险的十个“迷思”[J].保险研究,2013(11):96-104.
[8]王晓军,米海杰.对我国社会养老保险个人账户模式选择的实证分析[J].经济管理,2013,35(6):164-174.
[9]Holzmann R,Palmer E.Pension Reform:Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribution (NDC) Schemes [M].Washington,D.C.:The World Bank,2006.
[10]Samuelson P A.An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money[J].Journal of Political Economy,1958,66(6):467-482.
[11]Aaron H.The Social Insurance Paradox [J].The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1966,32 (3):371-374.
[12]Knell M.Increasing Life Expectancy and Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems [J].Economic Studies,2012(2):1-36.
[13]Oeppen J,Vaupel J.Demography Broken Limits to Life Expectancy [J].Science,2002,296(5570):1029-1031.
[14]Lee R.Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trend [EB/OL].CEDA Paper,2003.
[15]United Nations (Population Division,Department of Economics and Social Affairs.World Population Prospects:The 2015 Revision [EB/OL].United Nations,2015.
(1)2015年底全国个人账户累计记账额达到47144亿元,而所有做实个人账户省份累计结余仅为3274亿元(郑秉文,2016)[1]。即便3274亿元全部为个人账户做实基金,也仅占累计记账额的6. 94%。况且个人账户累计记账额在逐年增加,做实基金在逐年缩减,该比例会越来越小。从这个角度讲,也可认为个人账户在实际运行中为现收现付的制度模式。
(1)稳态环境是指各年龄人口死亡率、工资模式(各年龄平均工资占所有年龄的平均工资的比值)在各个时期保持不变。稳态环境下,IRR等于缴费工资总额增长率,可近似分解为平均工资增长率与缴费人口增长率之和。
(2)以GDP增长率作为制度IRR蕴含着这样一个假设:工资总额占GDP的比例恒定。
(1)用于计算个人账户的目标替代率的“标准人”为缴费35年、60岁退休时的参保者。假设缴费初年工资为w,缴费率为c=35350 . 08,工资增长率为g,个人账户记账利率为i,则缴费35年后的个人账户累计额为c∑w(1+g)n-1(1+i)35-n=c∑w(1+g)35n=1n=1=35cw(1+g)35,领取初年的个人账户养老金为35cw(1+g)35/(139/12),个人账户养老金替代率为35cw(1+g)35/(139/12)/(w(1+g)35)=24. 17%。
(1)现行个人账户计发月数表中60岁退休人口的计发月数为139个月,折合11. 58年。
(2)国发[2005]38号文要求建立基本养老金正常调整机制,调整幅度为在岗职工平均工资年增长率的一定比例。
(3)Oeppen和Vaupel(2002)[13]基于对1840年到2000年的死亡率数据分析,得出了0岁人口预期寿命的线性增长率等于0. 25的结论。Lee(2003)[14]基于对大量数据的分析,证明0岁人口预期寿命的线性增长率在0. 15~0. 25之间。
(1)我国劳动报酬占GDP的比例约为40%左右,而该比例在其他国家大多集中于60%~85%之间。