基于CMS模型的中国文化产品出口增长分解研究
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摘要
文章运用CMS模型,对1996—2016年中国文化产品出口变化的影响因素进行了分阶段、分层次和分产品的分析。研究结果表明:结构效应对文化产品出口的影响是逐阶段减弱的;产品竞争力效应的影响则不太稳定;交叉效应对文化出口的促进作用较为突出。在主要的文化产品出口中,竞争力效应是最主要的影响因素。鉴于此,中国应尽快制定和实施新的文化产品对外贸易发展战略,进一步提高我国文化产品的出口竞争优势。
This paper uses CMS model to analyze the influencing factors of the export change of Chinese cultural products from 1996 to 2016 by stages, levels and products. The results show that the influence of structural effect on the export of cultural products is weakened stage by stage; the effect of product competitiveness is not very stable, and crossover effect plays a prominent role in promoting cultural export. In the main cultural products export, the competitiveness effect is the most important influencing factor. In view of this, China should formulate and implement the new foreign trade development strategy of cultural products as soon as possible, and further improve the export competitive advantage of our cultural products.
This paper uses CMS model to analyze the influencing factors of the export change of Chinese cultural products from 1996 to 2016 by stages, levels and products. The results show that the influence of structural effect on the export of cultural products is weakened stage by stage; the effect of product competitiveness is not very stable, and crossover effect plays a prominent role in promoting cultural export. In the main cultural products export, the competitiveness effect is the most important influencing factor. In view of this, China should formulate and implement the new foreign trade development strategy of cultural products as soon as possible, and further improve the export competitive advantage of our cultural products.
引文
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[2]Felbermayr G J,Toubal F.Cultural Proximity and Trade[J].European Economic Review,2010,(2).
[3]Disdier A C,Tai S H T,Fontagnel L,et al.Bilateral Trade of Cultural Goods[J].Review of World Economics,2010,(4).
[4]汤增强,段元萍.我国对外文化产品贸易发展现状实证分析[J].科技与管理,2012,(9).
[5]周宏燕.中国文化产品贸易:特征、地位与趋势[J].宏观经济研究,2016,(9).
[6]曲如晓,杨修,刘杨.文化差异、贸易成本与中国文化产品出口[J].世界经济,2015,(9).
[7]邵军,吴晓怡,刘修岩.我国文化产品出口贸易联系持续期及影响因素分析[J].世界经济文汇,2014,(4).
[8]许传英.我国文化贸易国际竞争力及其影响因素研究[D].苏州:苏州大学硕士论文,2016.
[9]朱文静,顾江,朱婷.我国文化出口贸易结构变迁与产业结构调整的相互影响[J].经济经纬,2012,(6).
[10]胡妍妍.文化产品贸易与经济增长的关系研究:基于时间序列模型的分析[J].经济经纬,2015,(9).
[11]曲国明,符磊.我国文化产品出口增长的二元边际分析[J].国际商务,2015,(3).