气候变化下重庆市水资源脆弱性评价及适应性调控研究
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摘要
基于DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)模型,运用基于熵权的模糊综合评价方法,构建重庆市水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,研究2001—2014年重庆市水资源脆弱性;同时,将RCP4.5气候模型与适应性调控模型相耦合,研究未来水资源脆弱性适应性调控措施。分析结果表明:14 a来重庆市水资源脆弱性总体上处于轻度脆弱,且未来有加重的趋势。为有效降低水资源脆弱性,在未来气候变化情景下:近期单项调控最为灵敏的是人均年用水量,其次是有效灌溉面积比;在远期,最为灵敏的单项调控是生态环境用水比例、人均年用水量。目前,重庆市还没有关于水资源脆弱性调控的具体措施,研究成果将为该市水资源调控提供一套切实可行的方案。
Based on DPSTR model( driving factors-pressure-state-effect-response), the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight was applied to construct the evaluation index system of water resources vulnerability in Chongqing and study the vulnerability of water resources in Chongqing from 2001 to 2014; at the same time, the RCP4. 5 climate model was coupled with adaptive control model to discuss the future adaptive control measures of water resources vulnerability. The results show that the vulnerability of water resources in Chongqing has been slightly fragile in the past 14 years, and will be aggravated in the future. In order to effectively reduce the vulnerability of water resources, the results show that the most sensitive single regulation in the near future is the per capita annual water consumption, followed by the effective irrigation area ratio; in the long run, the most sensitive single regulation is the ratio of ecological and environmental water consumption, and the per capita annual water consumption. At present, there is no specific measure to control the vulnerability of water resources in Chongqing. The research results of this paper will provide a practical scheme for the regulation of water resources in Chongqing.
Based on DPSTR model( driving factors-pressure-state-effect-response), the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight was applied to construct the evaluation index system of water resources vulnerability in Chongqing and study the vulnerability of water resources in Chongqing from 2001 to 2014; at the same time, the RCP4. 5 climate model was coupled with adaptive control model to discuss the future adaptive control measures of water resources vulnerability. The results show that the vulnerability of water resources in Chongqing has been slightly fragile in the past 14 years, and will be aggravated in the future. In order to effectively reduce the vulnerability of water resources, the results show that the most sensitive single regulation in the near future is the per capita annual water consumption, followed by the effective irrigation area ratio; in the long run, the most sensitive single regulation is the ratio of ecological and environmental water consumption, and the per capita annual water consumption. At present, there is no specific measure to control the vulnerability of water resources in Chongqing. The research results of this paper will provide a practical scheme for the regulation of water resources in Chongqing.
引文
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[14]李恩宽,白乐,苏晓慧.基于熵权的乌梁素海水环境质量SPA综合评价[J].人民珠江,2018,39(6):21-24.
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[2]ALBINET M,MARGAT J.Cartographie de la vulnerabilite'a la pollution des nappes d'eau souterraine[J].Bul BRGM,1970,3(4):13-22.
[3]HASHIMOTO T,STEDINGER J R,LOUCKS D P.Reliability,resiliency,and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation[J].Water Resources Research,1982,18(1):14-20.
[4]HOUGHTON J T,MEIRAFILHO L G,CALLANDER B A,et al.Contribution of the Science Assessment Working Group(WGI)to the Second Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996:572.
[5]GAN T Y.Reducing vulnerability of water resources of Canadian Prairies to potential droughts and possible climatic warming[J].Water Resources Management,2000,14(2):111-135.
[6]NUNES J P,SEIXAS J,PACHECO N R.Vulnerability of water resources,vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds[J].Hydrological Processes,2010,22(16):3115-3134.
[7]夏军,翁建武,陈俊旭,等.多尺度水资源脆弱性评价研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2012,20(S1):1-14.
[8]PATRON E R,TERRAZAS D I G,MORA I D G.Climate Change and Vulnerability of Water Resources in Mexico:Challenges for Basin Management[M]//Water Policy in Mexico,Springer Press,2019:283-307.
[9]张忠训.全球气候变暖下重庆主城区极端天气气候与灾害研究[D].重庆:西南大学,2012.
[10]张明月,彭定志,钱鞠.疏勒河流域昌马灌区水资源脆弱性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(2):104-106.
[11]韩涵,刘秋常,李慧敏.基于不确定型AHP的PPP模式水生态项目的模糊评价[J].人民珠江,2016,37(12):87-90.
[12]徐斌,申恒伦,胡长伟,等.基于DPSIR模型和改进的群组AHP法的岸堤水库水生态安全评价[J].人民珠江,2018(1):40-43.
[13]郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:73.
[14]李恩宽,白乐,苏晓慧.基于熵权的乌梁素海水环境质量SPA综合评价[J].人民珠江,2018,39(6):21-24.
[15]秦大河,STOCKER T.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.