中国与中西南亚国家贸易效率、潜力测算及其影响因素分析——基于随机前沿引力模型
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摘要
选取2008年～2015年中国与中亚、西亚和南亚22个国家的贸易面板数据,运用随机前沿引力模型估计总贸易效率和潜力以及出口贸易效率和潜力,分析影响贸易效率和潜力的主要因素。研究表明,中国与中西南亚国家的非效率因素呈递减趋势,总贸易效率和出口贸易效率呈递增的变化趋势;中国与中亚、西亚和南亚三个区域的贸易发展较不均衡:最具有进出口潜力和提升空间的是中亚地区,最具有出口潜力和提升空间的则是南亚地区;经济规模和人口总量与贸易水平呈正相关关系,与贸易伙伴国首都之间的直线距离和共同边界对贸易水平呈现显著的负影响;根据区域性差异,提出对策建议:对于中亚地区而言,要建立便捷的通关制度,提高双边的贸易便利化水平;对于南亚地区而言,要有效发挥上海合作组织的机制作用,带动和扩大区域之间的贸易规模;对于西亚地区而言,要加大对重大物流基础设施的投资和建设,积极改善物流网络、构建运输国际通道。
The trade panel data of China and Central Asia, Western Asia and Southern Asia from 2008 to 2015 were selected. The stochastic frontier gravitation model was used to estimate the total trade efficiency and potential and the export trade efficiency and potential and analyze the main factors affecting trade efficiency and potential. The research shows that the non-efficiency factors of China and Central, Southern and Western Asian countries present a decreasing trend, and the total trade efficiency and the export trade efficiency present an increasing trend. The trade development between China and Central Asia, Western Asia and Southern Asia is less balanced: Central Asia has the most import and export potential with much room for improvement, and Southern Asia has the most export potential with much room for improvement; the economic scale and the total population are positively correlated witht rade levels, and the straight-line distances and common borders with the trading partners' capitals have a significant negative impact on trade levels. According to regional differences,countermeasures are proposed that: for Central Asia, it is necessary to establish a convenient customs clearance system to improve the level of bilateral trade facilitation; for Southern Asia, it is necessary to effectively play the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to promote and expand the scale of trade between regions; for Western Asia, it is necessary to increase investment and construction of major logistics infrastructure, actively improve the logistics network, and build an international channel for transportation.
The trade panel data of China and Central Asia, Western Asia and Southern Asia from 2008 to 2015 were selected. The stochastic frontier gravitation model was used to estimate the total trade efficiency and potential and the export trade efficiency and potential and analyze the main factors affecting trade efficiency and potential. The research shows that the non-efficiency factors of China and Central, Southern and Western Asian countries present a decreasing trend, and the total trade efficiency and the export trade efficiency present an increasing trend. The trade development between China and Central Asia, Western Asia and Southern Asia is less balanced: Central Asia has the most import and export potential with much room for improvement, and Southern Asia has the most export potential with much room for improvement; the economic scale and the total population are positively correlated witht rade levels, and the straight-line distances and common borders with the trading partners' capitals have a significant negative impact on trade levels. According to regional differences,countermeasures are proposed that: for Central Asia, it is necessary to establish a convenient customs clearance system to improve the level of bilateral trade facilitation; for Southern Asia, it is necessary to effectively play the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to promote and expand the scale of trade between regions; for Western Asia, it is necessary to increase investment and construction of major logistics infrastructure, actively improve the logistics network, and build an international channel for transportation.
引文
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[19]方英,马芮.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家文化贸易潜力及影响因素———基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2018(1):112-136.
[20]范兆斌,黄淑娟.文化距离对“一带一路”国家文化产品贸易效率影响的随机前沿分析[J].南开经济研究,2017(4):125-140.
[21]王芳,印中华.中国胶合板出口影响因素及贸易潜力———基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].世界林业研究,2017(6):52-56.
[22]张静中,曾勇.中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家机电产品出口潜力研究———基于扩展引力模型的实证分析[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2017(4):5-15.
[23]何奕,程凯,王雪等.贸易便利化对我国汽车行业出口的影响及贸易潜力研究———基于跨国面板数据模型的实证分析[J].工业技术经济,2017(6):3-10.
[24]施锦芳,郑晨.中国轨道交通装备制造业贸易结构与出口潜力的实证研究[J].宏观经济研究,2017(3):101-117.
[25]冯正强,白利利,陈巧.我国装备制造业省际出口贸易效率及其影响因素分析———基于异质性随机前沿出口模型的实证检验[J].经济问题探索,2018(7):145-153.
[26]喻胜华,聂早暖.贸易投资便利化对一带一路沿线国家双边贸易额的影响[J].湖南财政经济学院学报,2018(6):35-44.
[27]张扬,邹素林,姚志毅.“一带一路”背景下劳动力成本上涨是否抑制进出口贸易的发展?[J].湖南财政经济学院学报,2018(4):119-128.
[28]Meeusen,Van den Broeck. Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Function with Composed Error[J].International Economic Review,1977(3):790.
[29] G. E. Battese, T. J. Coelli.Frontier Production Functions,Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:With Application to Paddy Farmers in India[M].in International Applications of Productivity and Efficiency Analysis,New York:Springer Science+Business Media,1992:149-165.
[30] Armstrong S. Measuring Trade and Trade Potential:A Survey[J]. Asia Pacific Economic Paper, 2007,NO.368.
[2]张燕,高志刚.基于随机前沿引力模型的中澳双边贸易效率及潜力研究[J].国际经贸探索,2015(12):20-30.
[3]王亮,吴浜源.丝绸之路经济带的贸易潜力———基于“自然贸易伙伴”假说和随机前沿引力模型的分析[J].经济学家,2016(4):33-41
[4]丁广伟.中蒙俄贸易现状及其潜力分析———基于随机前沿引力模型[J].西伯利亚研究,2016(5):45-53.
[5]屠年松,李彦.中国与东盟国家双边贸易效率及潜力研究———基于随机前沿引力模型[J].云南社会科学,2016(5):84-89.
[6]张剑光,张鹏.中国与“一带一路”国家的贸易效率与影响因素研究[J].国际经贸探索,2017(8):4-23.
[7]侯敏,邓琳琳.中国与中东欧国家贸易效率及潜力研究———基于随机前沿引力模型的分析[J].上海经济研究,2018(7):105-116.
[8]林玲,闫玉宁,赵素萍.中美两国贸易效率及潜力研究[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2018(2):1-14.
[9]李豫新,杨萍.新疆对周边国家农产品出口贸易潜力及其影响因素研究———基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].价格月刊,2015(10):87-91.
[10]丁丽红,朱智洺.我国对东盟农产品出口效率及潜力研究———基于随机前沿引力模型[J].江西农业学报,2016(10):106-110.
[11]王瑞,王永龙.我国与“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家农产品进口贸易研究[J].经济学家,2017(4):97-104.
[12]曹安,汪晶晶,黄如梦.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家农产品出口贸易效率及潜力测算[J].统计与决策,2018(10):113-117.
[13]熊立春,程宝栋.“一带一路”沿线国家对华原木出口贸易效率与潜力[J].世界林业研究,2018(1):91-96.
[14]施炳展,李坤望.中国出口贸易增长的可持续性研究———基于贸易随机前沿模型的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(6):67-74.
[15]韩延玲,陈三景.中哈贸易出口效率及潜力研究———基于随机前沿引力模型[J].新疆财经,2016(2):67-73.
[16]黄孝林.“一带一路”战略下我国的出口潜力和贸易效率———基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].经营与管理,2017(1):98-100.
[17]陈琳,谢学臻,刘琳.中国出口的贸易效率与贸易潜力:1980~2015[J].国际经贸探索,2018(1):33-50.
[18]范兆斌,潘琳.中国对TPP成员国的直接投资效率及影响因素———基于随机前沿引力模型的研究[J].国际经贸探索,2016(6):71-86.
[19]方英,马芮.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家文化贸易潜力及影响因素———基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2018(1):112-136.
[20]范兆斌,黄淑娟.文化距离对“一带一路”国家文化产品贸易效率影响的随机前沿分析[J].南开经济研究,2017(4):125-140.
[21]王芳,印中华.中国胶合板出口影响因素及贸易潜力———基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].世界林业研究,2017(6):52-56.
[22]张静中,曾勇.中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家机电产品出口潜力研究———基于扩展引力模型的实证分析[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2017(4):5-15.
[23]何奕,程凯,王雪等.贸易便利化对我国汽车行业出口的影响及贸易潜力研究———基于跨国面板数据模型的实证分析[J].工业技术经济,2017(6):3-10.
[24]施锦芳,郑晨.中国轨道交通装备制造业贸易结构与出口潜力的实证研究[J].宏观经济研究,2017(3):101-117.
[25]冯正强,白利利,陈巧.我国装备制造业省际出口贸易效率及其影响因素分析———基于异质性随机前沿出口模型的实证检验[J].经济问题探索,2018(7):145-153.
[26]喻胜华,聂早暖.贸易投资便利化对一带一路沿线国家双边贸易额的影响[J].湖南财政经济学院学报,2018(6):35-44.
[27]张扬,邹素林,姚志毅.“一带一路”背景下劳动力成本上涨是否抑制进出口贸易的发展?[J].湖南财政经济学院学报,2018(4):119-128.
[28]Meeusen,Van den Broeck. Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Function with Composed Error[J].International Economic Review,1977(3):790.
[29] G. E. Battese, T. J. Coelli.Frontier Production Functions,Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:With Application to Paddy Farmers in India[M].in International Applications of Productivity and Efficiency Analysis,New York:Springer Science+Business Media,1992:149-165.
[30] Armstrong S. Measuring Trade and Trade Potential:A Survey[J]. Asia Pacific Economic Paper, 2007,NO.368.