超越地缘政治——产业政策与大国竞争
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摘要
从整个冷战后的国际关系史来看,大国之间的直接军事冲突不但规模有限,而且程度可控,这是因为核武器的毁灭性后果急剧提升了战争的成本。军备与战争依然是大国之间竞争和冲突的重要形式,但是在全球化时代,随着新技术、新产业的快速发展,地缘政治与军备竞争的效用逐步降低。当今世界的大国竞争已经不仅是军备竞赛和GDP数值的较量,还是持续创新与快速应用的产业链之间的竞争。在一个先进技术占据主导地位的世界中,竞争的本质变化导致安全的内涵发生了巨大改变:从如何防止战争逐渐转向如何确保产业安全。全球化重塑了全球产业结构,大国竞争的本质也转向了产业政策竞争。谁控制了从低端到高端的全产业链,谁就控制了全球产业结构。产业结构决定了经济实力和军事技术,而经济实力和军事技术决定了国家安全,因此产业结构的质量和安全决定着国家安全。在全球化时代,主导竞争的最重要因素是产业政策、尖端技术和市场规模,而大国竞争的本质是产业政策的竞争。
According to the history of the Cold War,military conflicts between great powers were limited and controlled. The devastating effects of nuclear weapons sharply raised the cost of war and reduced the incentives to wage wars. Under the era of globalization,the nature of "great powers competition" has been changed tremendously.International industrial structure and complex supply chain have reshaped international relations. Industry and high-tech competitions has eventually replaced arm race and geopolitical rivalry among great powers. The nature of security has been changed under this circumstance from preventing war to protecting industrial security. Whoever controls the entire industry chain will control the global industrial structure. Industrial structure determines economic strength and military technology. National security heavily replies on economic strength and military technology. Therefore,the quality and security of industrial structure play a vital important role in national security. Industrial policy,cutting-edge technology and the size of market are the most important three factors to reshape great powers competition. This paper argues that under the era of globalization,industrial policies and its implementation are the essence of competition among great powers,which will dominate the global industrial structure in future.
According to the history of the Cold War,military conflicts between great powers were limited and controlled. The devastating effects of nuclear weapons sharply raised the cost of war and reduced the incentives to wage wars. Under the era of globalization,the nature of "great powers competition" has been changed tremendously.International industrial structure and complex supply chain have reshaped international relations. Industry and high-tech competitions has eventually replaced arm race and geopolitical rivalry among great powers. The nature of security has been changed under this circumstance from preventing war to protecting industrial security. Whoever controls the entire industry chain will control the global industrial structure. Industrial structure determines economic strength and military technology. National security heavily replies on economic strength and military technology. Therefore,the quality and security of industrial structure play a vital important role in national security. Industrial policy,cutting-edge technology and the size of market are the most important three factors to reshape great powers competition. This paper argues that under the era of globalization,industrial policies and its implementation are the essence of competition among great powers,which will dominate the global industrial structure in future.
引文
(1)詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著,阎学通等译:《争论中的国际关系理论》,北京:世界知识出版社2002年版,第161页。
(1)Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence(The Fourth Edition), Boston:Pearson Press, 2012, p.24.
(2)Michael Zurn,"From Interdependence to Globalization,"in Walter Carlsnaes, et al., eds., Handbook of International Relations, Los Angeles:Sage Publications, 2006, p.242.
(3)John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York:W. W. Norton, 2001, p.44.
(1)John Mearsheimer,The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,p.20.
(2)John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, p.1.
(3)詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫:《争论中的国际关系理论》,第164页。
(1)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔著,李凤海等译:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,北京:机械工业出版社2017年版,第11页。
(1)Helen Milnes,"International Trade,"in Walter Carlsnaes, et al., eds., Handbook of International Relations, p.450.
(2)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,第9页。
(3)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,第17页。
(1)"Anmerica Will Dominate the Industries of the Future,"February 7, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/america-will-dominate-industries-future/,访问时间:2019年2月13日。
(1)Richard Foster, Innovation:The Attacker's Advantage, New York:Summit Books, 1986, pp.31-32.
(2)Richard Foster, Innovation:The Attacker's Advantage, pp.35-36.
(1)John D. McKinnon, Drew FitzGerald and Ryan Knutson,"Officials Reject Idea for Government Takeover of5G Wireless Build-Out:White House Memo Had Floated Idea of'Moonshot'Federal Government Effort to Develop a Nationalized System,"The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/fcc-chairman-opposes-government-takeover-of-5g-wireless-build-out-1517242169,访问时间:2019年2月11日。
(1)Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State, Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths, London:Anthem Press, 2013, p.73.
(1)John Mearsheinmer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,p.288.
(2)林毅夫:《产业政策与国家发展——新结构经济学视角》,载林毅夫、张军等主编《产业政策:总结、反思和展望》,北京:北京大学出版社2018年版,第3页。
(3)张维迎:《我为什么反对产业政策?》,载林毅夫、张军等主编:《产业政策:总结、反思和展望》,第16页。
(1)"H.R.2996 Revitalize American Manufacturing and Innovation Act of 2014,"September 16, 2014, https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house-bill/2996,访问时间:2018年8月10日。
(2)The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology"Ensuring Long-Term U.S. Leadership in Semiconductors, 2017,"https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/pcast_ensuring_long-teram_us_leadership_in_semiconductors.pdf,访问时间:2018年8月10日。
(3)Marco DiTommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013, p.2.
(4)Marco Di Tommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, p.3.
(1)Douglass North and Robert Thomas,The Rise of Western World, A New Economic History, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1983, pp.155-156.
(2)Joseph Schumpeter, The Theory of Economic Development, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 1934,p.116.
(3)James Caporaso and David Levine, Theories of Political Economy, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1992, p.185.
(1)Theda Skocpol,"Bringing the State Back in:Strategies of Analysis in Current Research,"in Peter Evens, et al., eds., Bringing the State Back in,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1985, p.6.
(2)Peter Evans, Embedded Autonomy:States and Industrial Transformation, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1995, p.235.
(3)Stephan Haggard, The Political Economy of the Asian Finarncial Crisis, Washington, D.C.:Peterson Insti tute for International Economics, 2000, p.49.
(4)Marco Di Tommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, p.6.
(1)Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 1962, pp.5-30.
(2)Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, p.14.
(3)高柏著,安佳译:《经济意识形态与日本产业政策》,上海:上海人民出版社2008年版,第9页。
(4)Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, p.14.
(1)高柏:《经济意识形态与日本产业政策》,第9页。
(1)Leslie Hannah and J. A. Kay, Concentration in Modern Industry:Theory, Measurement and the U. K. Experience, London:Palgrave Macmillan, 1977, p.39.
(1)Christian Stensrud,"Industrial Policy in the United States,"Institute for the Study of Civil Society, October 2016, https://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/IndustrialpolicyintheUnitedStates.pdf,访问时间:2019年2月19日。
(2)Marco Di Tommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, p.2.
(1)例如美国国会通过《莫雷尔法案》(Morrill Act),授权联邦政府利用出售土地的收入在每一个州至少建立一所以农业和机械工程为核心专业的大学。这类高校被称为增地大学(land-grant university)。增地大学培养了大批农业、工程业和机械制造业的本土人才。麻省理工学院、康奈尔大学的前身都是增地大学。
(2)周建军:《美国产业政策的政治学》,载林毅夫、张军等主编《产业政策:总结、反思和展望》,第141页。
(3)Christian Stensrud,"Industrial Policy in the United States,"Institute for the Study of Civil Society, October 2016,https://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/IndustrialpolicyintheUnitedStates.pdf,访问时间:2019年2月19日。
(1)"America Will Dominate the Industries of the Future,"February 7, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/america-will-dominate-industries-future/,访问时间:2019年2月13日。
(2)"Presidential Memorandum for the Secretary of the Interior,"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-secretary-interior/,访问时间:2019年4月30日;"Presidential Executive Order on Streamlining and Expediting Requests to Locate Broadband Facilities in Rural America,"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-executive-order-streamlining-expediting-requests-locate-broadband-facilitiesrural-america/,访问时间:2019年4月30日;"Presidential Memorandum on Developing a Sustainable Spectrum Strategy for America's Future,"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-developing-sustainable-spectrum-strategy-americas-future/,访问时间:2019年4月30日。
(1)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,第3页。
(1)"Trump Targets China's Push to Make Its Eaconomic Hi-Tech,"March 28, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-28/u-s-targets-made-in-china-2025-in-fight-for-high-tech-economy,访问时间:2019年2月22日。
(2)John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, p.12.
(1)Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence(The Fourth Edition), Boston:Pearson Press, 2012, p.24.
(2)Michael Zurn,"From Interdependence to Globalization,"in Walter Carlsnaes, et al., eds., Handbook of International Relations, Los Angeles:Sage Publications, 2006, p.242.
(3)John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York:W. W. Norton, 2001, p.44.
(1)John Mearsheimer,The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,p.20.
(2)John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, p.1.
(3)詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫:《争论中的国际关系理论》,第164页。
(1)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔著,李凤海等译:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,北京:机械工业出版社2017年版,第11页。
(1)Helen Milnes,"International Trade,"in Walter Carlsnaes, et al., eds., Handbook of International Relations, p.450.
(2)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,第9页。
(3)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,第17页。
(1)"Anmerica Will Dominate the Industries of the Future,"February 7, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/america-will-dominate-industries-future/,访问时间:2019年2月13日。
(1)Richard Foster, Innovation:The Attacker's Advantage, New York:Summit Books, 1986, pp.31-32.
(2)Richard Foster, Innovation:The Attacker's Advantage, pp.35-36.
(1)John D. McKinnon, Drew FitzGerald and Ryan Knutson,"Officials Reject Idea for Government Takeover of5G Wireless Build-Out:White House Memo Had Floated Idea of'Moonshot'Federal Government Effort to Develop a Nationalized System,"The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/fcc-chairman-opposes-government-takeover-of-5g-wireless-build-out-1517242169,访问时间:2019年2月11日。
(1)Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State, Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths, London:Anthem Press, 2013, p.73.
(1)John Mearsheinmer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,p.288.
(2)林毅夫:《产业政策与国家发展——新结构经济学视角》,载林毅夫、张军等主编《产业政策:总结、反思和展望》,北京:北京大学出版社2018年版,第3页。
(3)张维迎:《我为什么反对产业政策?》,载林毅夫、张军等主编:《产业政策:总结、反思和展望》,第16页。
(1)"H.R.2996 Revitalize American Manufacturing and Innovation Act of 2014,"September 16, 2014, https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house-bill/2996,访问时间:2018年8月10日。
(2)The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology"Ensuring Long-Term U.S. Leadership in Semiconductors, 2017,"https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/pcast_ensuring_long-teram_us_leadership_in_semiconductors.pdf,访问时间:2018年8月10日。
(3)Marco DiTommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013, p.2.
(4)Marco Di Tommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, p.3.
(1)Douglass North and Robert Thomas,The Rise of Western World, A New Economic History, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1983, pp.155-156.
(2)Joseph Schumpeter, The Theory of Economic Development, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 1934,p.116.
(3)James Caporaso and David Levine, Theories of Political Economy, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1992, p.185.
(1)Theda Skocpol,"Bringing the State Back in:Strategies of Analysis in Current Research,"in Peter Evens, et al., eds., Bringing the State Back in,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1985, p.6.
(2)Peter Evans, Embedded Autonomy:States and Industrial Transformation, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1995, p.235.
(3)Stephan Haggard, The Political Economy of the Asian Finarncial Crisis, Washington, D.C.:Peterson Insti tute for International Economics, 2000, p.49.
(4)Marco Di Tommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, p.6.
(1)Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 1962, pp.5-30.
(2)Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, p.14.
(3)高柏著,安佳译:《经济意识形态与日本产业政策》,上海:上海人民出版社2008年版,第9页。
(4)Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, p.14.
(1)高柏:《经济意识形态与日本产业政策》,第9页。
(1)Leslie Hannah and J. A. Kay, Concentration in Modern Industry:Theory, Measurement and the U. K. Experience, London:Palgrave Macmillan, 1977, p.39.
(1)Christian Stensrud,"Industrial Policy in the United States,"Institute for the Study of Civil Society, October 2016, https://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/IndustrialpolicyintheUnitedStates.pdf,访问时间:2019年2月19日。
(2)Marco Di Tommaso and Stuart Schweitzer, Industrial Policy in America:Breaking the Taboo, p.2.
(1)例如美国国会通过《莫雷尔法案》(Morrill Act),授权联邦政府利用出售土地的收入在每一个州至少建立一所以农业和机械工程为核心专业的大学。这类高校被称为增地大学(land-grant university)。增地大学培养了大批农业、工程业和机械制造业的本土人才。麻省理工学院、康奈尔大学的前身都是增地大学。
(2)周建军:《美国产业政策的政治学》,载林毅夫、张军等主编《产业政策:总结、反思和展望》,第141页。
(3)Christian Stensrud,"Industrial Policy in the United States,"Institute for the Study of Civil Society, October 2016,https://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/IndustrialpolicyintheUnitedStates.pdf,访问时间:2019年2月19日。
(1)"America Will Dominate the Industries of the Future,"February 7, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/america-will-dominate-industries-future/,访问时间:2019年2月13日。
(2)"Presidential Memorandum for the Secretary of the Interior,"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-secretary-interior/,访问时间:2019年4月30日;"Presidential Executive Order on Streamlining and Expediting Requests to Locate Broadband Facilities in Rural America,"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-executive-order-streamlining-expediting-requests-locate-broadband-facilitiesrural-america/,访问时间:2019年4月30日;"Presidential Memorandum on Developing a Sustainable Spectrum Strategy for America's Future,"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-developing-sustainable-spectrum-strategy-americas-future/,访问时间:2019年4月30日。
(1)瓦克拉夫·斯米尔:《国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业》,第3页。
(1)"Trump Targets China's Push to Make Its Eaconomic Hi-Tech,"March 28, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-28/u-s-targets-made-in-china-2025-in-fight-for-high-tech-economy,访问时间:2019年2月22日。
(2)John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, p.12.