河北春秋季降水异常与对流层中低层环流的可能联系
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摘要
利用河北省及周边73个台站1961—2010年春季、秋季降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,应用SVD等多种统计方法探讨了河北春秋季降水异常变化及其与对流层中低层环流的可能联系.研究结果表明:河北省春秋季降水异常存在全省一致和南—北相反两种模态.春季,当500 hPa平均高度场上东西伯利亚海出现负异常,我国东北地区到日本海为正异常时,河北春季大部分地区降水偏多(石家庄表现最明显);反之,河北春季大部分地区降水偏少.秋季,当欧洲的西北部500 hPa平均高度场为负异常时,河北大部秋季降水偏少(中部表现最明显);反之,河北秋季降水偏多.春秋季干旱的出现与贝加尔湖阻高(或高脊)及东亚大槽偏强有关.850 hPa偏南风减弱是导致春秋季干旱的重要原因.
Based on monthly spring and autumn precipitation data during 1961-2010 from 73 meteorological stations in Hebei province and its vicinity,as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during the same period,the variations of spring and autumn precipitation anomaly in Hebei province and its possible relationship with the middle and low level circulation are analyzed by using Singular Value Decomposition( SVD) analysis method.Results indicate that the uniformly dry/wet is the most common pattern for the spatial distribution of spring and autumn rainfall in Hebei,and the second pattern is a seesaw of dry/wet between southern and northern regions.When the negative anomaly over east Siberian Sea and positive anomaly from Northeast China to Japan Sea emerge at 500 hPa geopotential height fields in spring,the contemporaneous spring precipitation in most parts of Hebei,especially Shijiazhuang,is above normal; otherwise,precipitation in spring is below normal.When the negative anomaly over Northwest Europe emerges at 500 hPa geopotential height fields in autumn,the contemporaneous precipitation in most parts of Hebei,especially middle areas,is below normal; otherwise,the precipitation in autumn is above normal.The spring and autumn droughts in Hebei are related to the stronger Baikal blocking high( or high pressure ridge) and the East Asian trough,and the weakened 850 hPa seasonal south winds cause contemporaneous droughts in Hebei.
Based on monthly spring and autumn precipitation data during 1961-2010 from 73 meteorological stations in Hebei province and its vicinity,as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during the same period,the variations of spring and autumn precipitation anomaly in Hebei province and its possible relationship with the middle and low level circulation are analyzed by using Singular Value Decomposition( SVD) analysis method.Results indicate that the uniformly dry/wet is the most common pattern for the spatial distribution of spring and autumn rainfall in Hebei,and the second pattern is a seesaw of dry/wet between southern and northern regions.When the negative anomaly over east Siberian Sea and positive anomaly from Northeast China to Japan Sea emerge at 500 hPa geopotential height fields in spring,the contemporaneous spring precipitation in most parts of Hebei,especially Shijiazhuang,is above normal; otherwise,precipitation in spring is below normal.When the negative anomaly over Northwest Europe emerges at 500 hPa geopotential height fields in autumn,the contemporaneous precipitation in most parts of Hebei,especially middle areas,is below normal; otherwise,the precipitation in autumn is above normal.The spring and autumn droughts in Hebei are related to the stronger Baikal blocking high( or high pressure ridge) and the East Asian trough,and the weakened 850 hPa seasonal south winds cause contemporaneous droughts in Hebei.
引文
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[19]王秀文,李峰,阿布力米提·司马义.淮河流域秋季干旱少雨的成因分析[J].气象,2002,28(10):50-52WANG Xiuwen,LI Feng,Ablmit Simayi. Analysis of causes of Huaihe River Basin drought in autumn[J].Meteorological Monthly,2002,28(10):50-52
[20]周晋红,李丽平,秦爱民.山西气象干旱指标的确定及干旱气候变化研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(3):240-247ZHOU Jinhong,LI Liping,QIN Aimin.Study on the determination of meteorological drought index and drought climate changes in Shanxi province[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2010,28(3):240-247
[21]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007:160-169WEI Fengying. Modern climate statistic diagnosis and prediction technology[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:160-169
[22]施能.气候诊断研究中SVD显著性检验的方法[J].气象科技,1996(4):5-6SHI Neng. Method of SVD significance test used in climatic logical diagnosis and research[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,1996(4):5-6
[23]施能,魏凤英,封国林,等.气象场相关分析及合成分析中蒙特卡洛检验方法及应用[J].南京气象学院学报,1997,20(3):355-359SHI Neng,WEI Fengying,FENG Guolin,et al. Monte Carlo test used in correlation and composite analysis of meteorological fields[J].Journal of Nanjing Institution of Meteorology,1997,20(3):355-359
[2]李维京,赵振国,李想,等.中国北方干旱的气候特征及其成因的初步研究[J].干旱气象,2003,21(4):1-5LI Weijing,ZHAO Zhenguo,LI Xiang,et al. The drought characteristics analysis in North China and its causes of formation[J].Arid Meteorology,2003,21(4):1-5
[3]任朝霞,杨达源.近50年西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(8):48-53REN Zhaoxia,YANG Dayuan. Impacts of climate change on agriculture in the arid region of Northwest China in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2007,21(8):48-53
[4]宋连春,张存杰.20世纪西北地区降水量变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2005,25(2):143-148SONG Lianchun,ZHANG Cunjie. Changing features of precipitation over Northwest China during the 20th century[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2005,25(2):143-148
[5]张存杰,高学杰,赵红岩.全球气候变暖对西北地区秋季降水的影响[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):157-164ZHANG Cunjie,GAO Xuejie,ZHAO Hongyan. Impact of global warming on autumn precipitation in Northwest China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2003,25(2):157-164
[6]钱正安,吴统文,宋敏红,等.干旱灾害和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(1):28-38QIAN Zheng'an,WU Tongwen,SONG Minhong,et al.Arid disaster and advances in arid climate researches over Northwest China[J]. Advances in Earth Sciences,2001,16(1):28-38
[7]高庆九,郝立生,闵锦忠,等.华北夏季降水年代际变化与东亚夏季风、大气环流异常[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),2006,42(6):590-601GAO Qingjiu,HAO Lisheng,MIN Jinzhong,et al. Interdecadal variability of summer precipitation over North China and East Asian summer monsoon and atmospheric circulations anomaly[J]. Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences Edition),2006,42(6):590-601
[8]黄荣辉.我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(6):564-575HUANG Ronghui.Progresses in research on the formation mechanism and prediction theory of severe climatic disasters in China[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(6):564-575
[9]魏凤英,张京江.华北地区干旱的气候背景及其前兆强信号[J].气象学报,2003,61(3):354-363WEI Fengying,ZHANG Jingjiang. Climatological background and previous stronger signal of anomaly drought over North China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2003,61(3):354-363
[10]郝立生,闵锦忠,姚学祥.华北地区夏季降水减少的原因分析[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(4):522-527HAO Lisheng,MIN Jinzhong,YAO Xuexiang.Analysis on the causes resulting in the reduction of summer rainfall over North China[J].Arid Zone Research,2007,24(4):522-527
[11]梁平德,段丽瑶,周鸣盛,等.华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆[J].气象学报,2006,64(3):386-391LIANG Pingde,DUAN Liyao,ZHOU Mingsheng,et al.Circulation patterns for mid-summer drought/flood in North China and their early-summer precursers[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2006,64(3):386-391
[12]荣艳淑,段丽瑶,徐明.1997—2002年华北持续性干旱气候诊断分析[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(6):842-850RONG Yanshu,DUAN Liyao,XU Ming. Analysis on climatic diagnosis of persistent drought in North China during the period from 1997 to 2002[J]. Arid Zone Research,2008,25(6):842-850
[13]晏红明,程建刚,郑建萌,等.2009年云南秋季特大干旱的气候成因分析[J].大气科学学报,2012,35(2):229-239YAN Hongming,CHENG Jiangang,ZHENG Jianmeng,et al.The climate cause of heavy drought in Yunnan in autumn 2009[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,35(2):229-239
[14]黄山江,王谦谦,刘星燕.西北地区春季和夏季降水异常特征分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2004,27(3):336-346HUANG Shanjiang,WANG Qianqian,LIU Xingyan.Analysis of anomalous characteristics of spring and summer precipitation in Northwest China[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2004,27(3):336-346
[15]方建刚,白爱娟.陕西春季干旱的环流特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(5):247-253FANG Jiangang,BAI Aijuan. The analysis of atmospheric circulation during the years with spring drought in Shaanxi[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2010,28(5):247-253
[16]方建刚,白爱娟.陕西春季干旱与多雨的环流特征对比分析[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(3):363-369FANG Jiangang,BAI Aijuan.Atmospheric circulation during the spring drought and rainy years in Shaanxi province[J]. Arid Land Geography,2010,33(3):363-369
[17]沙天阳,徐海明,邹松佐.中国西南地区东部秋季干旱的环流特征及其成因分析[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(5):593-603SHA Tianyang,XU Haiming,ZOU Songzuo. Atmospheric circulation characteristics and cause analysis for autumn drought in the eastern region of Southwest China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,36(5):593-603
[18]张顾炜,曾刚,倪东鸿,等.西南地区秋季干旱的年代际转折及其可能原因分析[J].大气科学,2016,40(2):311-323.ZHANG Guwei,ZENG Gang,NI Donghong,et al.Decadal shift of autumn drought in Southwest China and its possible causes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(2):311-323
[19]王秀文,李峰,阿布力米提·司马义.淮河流域秋季干旱少雨的成因分析[J].气象,2002,28(10):50-52WANG Xiuwen,LI Feng,Ablmit Simayi. Analysis of causes of Huaihe River Basin drought in autumn[J].Meteorological Monthly,2002,28(10):50-52
[20]周晋红,李丽平,秦爱民.山西气象干旱指标的确定及干旱气候变化研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(3):240-247ZHOU Jinhong,LI Liping,QIN Aimin.Study on the determination of meteorological drought index and drought climate changes in Shanxi province[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2010,28(3):240-247
[21]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007:160-169WEI Fengying. Modern climate statistic diagnosis and prediction technology[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:160-169
[22]施能.气候诊断研究中SVD显著性检验的方法[J].气象科技,1996(4):5-6SHI Neng. Method of SVD significance test used in climatic logical diagnosis and research[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,1996(4):5-6
[23]施能,魏凤英,封国林,等.气象场相关分析及合成分析中蒙特卡洛检验方法及应用[J].南京气象学院学报,1997,20(3):355-359SHI Neng,WEI Fengying,FENG Guolin,et al. Monte Carlo test used in correlation and composite analysis of meteorological fields[J].Journal of Nanjing Institution of Meteorology,1997,20(3):355-359