鄱阳湖流域城市洪涝灾害风险及土地类型调整策略研究——以景德镇市为例
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摘要
在全球气候变化和人类活动影响下,流域内城市洪涝灾害发生的频率、强度及其造成的损失日益加剧,更好的揭示洪涝灾害风险的时空演变规律对不同流域下城市防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于流域城市洪涝灾害风险的形成过程,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、防灾减灾能力4个方面选取指标,构建了基于格网的流域城市小尺度洪涝灾害风险评价模型,并以景德镇市城区为例,将空间风险定量计算,分析了城市洪涝风险的时空分异特征,最后提出土地利用类型的调整策略。结果表明:从空间上,城区洪涝灾害风险极大值与极小值差值存在较大的差异,呈现由昌江、南河、西河等河流为中心向四周逐渐减小的方向性变化,不同区域的风险波动性幅度不同,社会经济发展水平较高的珠山区昌江沿岸区域为景德镇城区的洪涝灾害高风险区,西部、西南部山区以及东部乡镇由于地势较高,风险水平较低。从时间上,景德镇市城区的洪涝灾害风险最大值呈下降趋势,南部洪涝灾害风险整体变小,但风险集中程度不断加剧,城区西部风险值有小幅度的上升;针对不同的区域特征,通过两种方案对城区内洪涝灾害易涝典型地区进行土地利用类型调整,两个区域风险分别从0. 606与0. 610降低到0. 561与0. 571。
Due to the influence of global climate change and severe human activities,the frequency and intensity of urban flood disasters in basin are increasing frequently. Because of various urban development of cities in the Poyanghu Basin,the land use structure was forced to change. Because of the rapid urban development in Poyanghu Basin,the land use structure changes continuously. Meanwhile,some unreasonable land use type increased the risk of flood disaster. It 's significant and necessary to study and reveal the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk in the different basin. The study can be used as a support tool to help local stakeholders make future flood risk prevention and reduction planning,and flood disaster management. In this study,the urban region of Jingdezhen City in Poyanghu Basin was selected as the study area. Firstly,the formation of flood risk and the causes of flood disasters in cities of basin were analyzed. Secondly,based on the formation process of urban flood risk in Basin,the assessment index was set up from four main aspects( disastercausing factors,disaster-pregnant environment,disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability).Thirdly,a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model was developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP) and Geographic Information System( GIS). Finally,taking the urban area of Jingdezhen as a case,the spatial risk was calculated quantitatively. And the adjustment strategies of land use type in the typical flood disaster affected areas were put forward according to the spatial-temporal distribution of flood disaster risk. The results showed that there was a big difference between the maximum and minimum values of flood disaster risk in urban areas from the perspective of space. The risk decreased gradually from the center line of Urban River to the surrounding. The range of risk volatility in different regions was different. The Changjiang coastal area of Zhushan District which has high social and economic development level were the high-risk areas and the risk level was low in western,southwest and eastern towns. From the perspective of time,the maximum value of flood disaster risk in the urban city decreased from 2010 to 2013 while the local areas of high flood disaster risk were more concentred. The risk of flood disaster in the South became smaller as a whole. The value of flood disaster risk in the western part of the city increased slightly. According to the different regional characteristics,two hypothetical adjustments were adopted to change the land use types in the typical flood areas in the basin. After calculating the average value of flood disaster risk,the value of flood disaster risk in two regions decreased from 0. 606 and0. 610 to 0. 561( 7. 4%) and 0. 571( 6. 4%) respectively.
Due to the influence of global climate change and severe human activities,the frequency and intensity of urban flood disasters in basin are increasing frequently. Because of various urban development of cities in the Poyanghu Basin,the land use structure was forced to change. Because of the rapid urban development in Poyanghu Basin,the land use structure changes continuously. Meanwhile,some unreasonable land use type increased the risk of flood disaster. It 's significant and necessary to study and reveal the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk in the different basin. The study can be used as a support tool to help local stakeholders make future flood risk prevention and reduction planning,and flood disaster management. In this study,the urban region of Jingdezhen City in Poyanghu Basin was selected as the study area. Firstly,the formation of flood risk and the causes of flood disasters in cities of basin were analyzed. Secondly,based on the formation process of urban flood risk in Basin,the assessment index was set up from four main aspects( disastercausing factors,disaster-pregnant environment,disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability).Thirdly,a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model was developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP) and Geographic Information System( GIS). Finally,taking the urban area of Jingdezhen as a case,the spatial risk was calculated quantitatively. And the adjustment strategies of land use type in the typical flood disaster affected areas were put forward according to the spatial-temporal distribution of flood disaster risk. The results showed that there was a big difference between the maximum and minimum values of flood disaster risk in urban areas from the perspective of space. The risk decreased gradually from the center line of Urban River to the surrounding. The range of risk volatility in different regions was different. The Changjiang coastal area of Zhushan District which has high social and economic development level were the high-risk areas and the risk level was low in western,southwest and eastern towns. From the perspective of time,the maximum value of flood disaster risk in the urban city decreased from 2010 to 2013 while the local areas of high flood disaster risk were more concentred. The risk of flood disaster in the South became smaller as a whole. The value of flood disaster risk in the western part of the city increased slightly. According to the different regional characteristics,two hypothetical adjustments were adopted to change the land use types in the typical flood areas in the basin. After calculating the average value of flood disaster risk,the value of flood disaster risk in two regions decreased from 0. 606 and0. 610 to 0. 561( 7. 4%) and 0. 571( 6. 4%) respectively.
引文
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[11]张正涛,高超,刘青,等.不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理研究. 2014,33(07):1361ZHANG Z T,GAO C,LIU Q,et al. Risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return periods in Huaihe River Basin[J]. Geographical Research. 2014,33(07):1361-1372.
[12]程先富,戴梦琴,郝丹丹,等.基于情景分析的区域洪涝灾害风险评价——以巢湖流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境. 2015,24(08):1418-1424.CHENG X F,DAI M Q,HAO D D,et al. Regional flood risk assessment based on scenario analysis——A case study of Chaohu Basin[J]. Resources&Environment in the Yangtze Basin.2015,24(08):1418-1424.
[13]赵思健,黄崇福,郭树军.情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(01):9-17.ZHAO S J,HUANG C F,GUO S J. Scenario-driven risk analysis of regional natural disasters[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters.2012,21(01):9-17.
[14]曹罗丹,李加林.基于遥感与GIS的浙江省洪涝灾害综合风险评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(04):111-119.CAO L D,LI J L. Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster in Zhejiang Province based on RS and GIS[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(04):111-119.
[15]段光耀,赵文吉,宫辉力.基于遥感数据的区域洪涝风险评估改进模型[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(04):57-61.DUAN G Y,ZHAO W J,GONG H L. Improved model of regional flood disaster risk assessment based on remote sensing data[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(04):57-61.
[16]黄诗峰.遥感技术在我国洪涝灾害监测评估中的应用[J].中国减灾,2013,23(24):36-37.
[17]罗培,张天儒,杜军.基于GIS和模糊评价法的重庆洪涝灾害风险区划[J].西华师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(02):165-171.LUO P,ZHANG T R,DU J. GIS and hazy evaluation method based on hazard evaluation for flood disaster——Taking Chongqing as an example[J]. Journal of China West Normal University,2007,28(02):165-171.
[18]戴娟,潘益农,刘青,等.改进的AHP在县域尺度暴雨洪涝风险评价的应用[J].气象科学. 2014,34(04):428-434.DAI J,PAN Y N,LIU Q,et al. Application of improved AHP in county-scale rainstorm and flood risk assessment[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(04):428-434.
[19]梁玉莲,黄丹萍,黎美宏,等.基于GIS的南宁市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象科技,2013,41(05):934-939.LIANG Y L,HUANG D P,LI M H,et al. GIS-based assessment and zoning of rainstorm and flooding disaster risk in Nanning[J]. Meteorological Science&Technology, 2013, 41(05):934-939.
[20]尹占娥,许世远,殷杰,等.基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估[J].地理学报,2010,65(05):553-562.YIN Z E,XU S Y,YIN J,et al. Small-scale based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(05):553-562.
[21]周江,陈鲍发,黄龙飞.景德镇市致洪暴雨的特点与气象服务的思考[J].江西科学,2017,35(05):738-742.ZHOU J,CHEN B F,HUANG L F. Characteristics of floodcaused rainstorms and thoughts on meteorological services[J].Jiangxi Science,2017,35(05):738-742.
[22]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(04):8-19.SHI P J. Theory and practice of disaster study[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters. 1996,5(04):8-19.
[23]屈艳萍,高辉,吕娟,等.基于区域灾害系统论的中国农业旱灾风险评估[J].水利学报,2015,46(08):908-917.QU Y P,GAO H,LU J,et al. Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment in China based on the regional disaster system theory[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(08):908-917.
[24]闫绪娴.中西部地区自然灾害社会易损性空间特征分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(05):34-40.YAN X X. Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters in the Midwest of China[J]. Economic Geography,2014,34(05):34-40.
[25]程先富,郝丹丹.基于OWA-GIS的巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理科学. 2015,35(10):1312-1317.CHENG X F,HAO D D. Flood risk assessment in Chaohu Basin based on OWA-GIS[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1312-1317.
[26]唐波,刘希林,李元.珠江三角洲城市群灾害易损性时空格局差异分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(01):72-78.TANG B,LIU X L,LI Y. Hazard vulnerability analysis of the spatial temporal pattern differences in Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations[J]. Economic Geography,2013,33(01):72-78.
[2]刘剑宇,张强,邓晓宇,等.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流过程影响的定量分析[J].湖泊科学,2016(02):432-443.LIU J Y,ZHANG Q,DENG X Y,et al. Quantitative analysis the influences of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes in Poyang Basin[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2016(02):432-443.
[3]章茹,蒋元勇,万金保,等.城镇化过程对鄱阳湖流域生态系统的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(03):400-406.ZHANG R,JIANG Y Y,WAN J B,et al. Effect of urbanization on the ecosystem of Poyang Lake[J]. Resources&Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(03):400-406.
[4]许有鹏,于瑞宏,马宗伟.长江中下游洪水灾害成因及洪水特征模拟分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2005,14(05):638-643.XU Y P,YU R H,MA Z W. Analysis on the cause of formation of flood disaster and flood characteristics in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Resources&Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2005,14(05):638-643.
[5] GUO H,HU Q,JIANG T. Annual and seasonal streamflow responses to climate and land-cover changes in the Poyang Lake basin,China[J]. Journal of Hydrology. 2008,355(1-4):106-122.
[6] HALLEGATTE S,GREEN C,NICHOLLS R J,et al. Future flood losses in major coastal cities[J]. Nature Climate Change,2013,3(9):802-806.
[7]程江,杨凯,刘兰岚,等.上海中心城区土地利用变化对区域降雨径流的影响研究[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(06):914-925.CHENG J,YANG K,LIU L L,et al. Impact of 60 years land use change on rainfall-runoff in central Shanghai[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(06):914-925.
[8]国家防汛抗旱总指挥部,中华人民共和国水利部.中国水旱灾害公报(2016)[M].北京:中国地图出版社,2017.
[9]袁艺,史培军,刘颖慧,等.土地利用变化对城市洪涝灾害的影响[J].自然灾害学报. 2003,12(03):6-13.YUAN Y,SHI P J,LIU Y H,et al. Impact of land use change on urban flood disaster[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters. 2003,12(03):6-13.
[10]程先富,戴梦琴,郝丹丹.区域洪涝灾害风险评价研究进展[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版). 2015,38(01):74-79.CHENG X F,DAI M Q,HAO D D. Research progress on regional flood risk assessment[J]. Journal of Anhui Normal University. 2015,38(01):74-79.
[11]张正涛,高超,刘青,等.不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理研究. 2014,33(07):1361ZHANG Z T,GAO C,LIU Q,et al. Risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return periods in Huaihe River Basin[J]. Geographical Research. 2014,33(07):1361-1372.
[12]程先富,戴梦琴,郝丹丹,等.基于情景分析的区域洪涝灾害风险评价——以巢湖流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境. 2015,24(08):1418-1424.CHENG X F,DAI M Q,HAO D D,et al. Regional flood risk assessment based on scenario analysis——A case study of Chaohu Basin[J]. Resources&Environment in the Yangtze Basin.2015,24(08):1418-1424.
[13]赵思健,黄崇福,郭树军.情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(01):9-17.ZHAO S J,HUANG C F,GUO S J. Scenario-driven risk analysis of regional natural disasters[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters.2012,21(01):9-17.
[14]曹罗丹,李加林.基于遥感与GIS的浙江省洪涝灾害综合风险评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(04):111-119.CAO L D,LI J L. Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster in Zhejiang Province based on RS and GIS[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(04):111-119.
[15]段光耀,赵文吉,宫辉力.基于遥感数据的区域洪涝风险评估改进模型[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(04):57-61.DUAN G Y,ZHAO W J,GONG H L. Improved model of regional flood disaster risk assessment based on remote sensing data[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(04):57-61.
[16]黄诗峰.遥感技术在我国洪涝灾害监测评估中的应用[J].中国减灾,2013,23(24):36-37.
[17]罗培,张天儒,杜军.基于GIS和模糊评价法的重庆洪涝灾害风险区划[J].西华师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(02):165-171.LUO P,ZHANG T R,DU J. GIS and hazy evaluation method based on hazard evaluation for flood disaster——Taking Chongqing as an example[J]. Journal of China West Normal University,2007,28(02):165-171.
[18]戴娟,潘益农,刘青,等.改进的AHP在县域尺度暴雨洪涝风险评价的应用[J].气象科学. 2014,34(04):428-434.DAI J,PAN Y N,LIU Q,et al. Application of improved AHP in county-scale rainstorm and flood risk assessment[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(04):428-434.
[19]梁玉莲,黄丹萍,黎美宏,等.基于GIS的南宁市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象科技,2013,41(05):934-939.LIANG Y L,HUANG D P,LI M H,et al. GIS-based assessment and zoning of rainstorm and flooding disaster risk in Nanning[J]. Meteorological Science&Technology, 2013, 41(05):934-939.
[20]尹占娥,许世远,殷杰,等.基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估[J].地理学报,2010,65(05):553-562.YIN Z E,XU S Y,YIN J,et al. Small-scale based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(05):553-562.
[21]周江,陈鲍发,黄龙飞.景德镇市致洪暴雨的特点与气象服务的思考[J].江西科学,2017,35(05):738-742.ZHOU J,CHEN B F,HUANG L F. Characteristics of floodcaused rainstorms and thoughts on meteorological services[J].Jiangxi Science,2017,35(05):738-742.
[22]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(04):8-19.SHI P J. Theory and practice of disaster study[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters. 1996,5(04):8-19.
[23]屈艳萍,高辉,吕娟,等.基于区域灾害系统论的中国农业旱灾风险评估[J].水利学报,2015,46(08):908-917.QU Y P,GAO H,LU J,et al. Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment in China based on the regional disaster system theory[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(08):908-917.
[24]闫绪娴.中西部地区自然灾害社会易损性空间特征分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(05):34-40.YAN X X. Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters in the Midwest of China[J]. Economic Geography,2014,34(05):34-40.
[25]程先富,郝丹丹.基于OWA-GIS的巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理科学. 2015,35(10):1312-1317.CHENG X F,HAO D D. Flood risk assessment in Chaohu Basin based on OWA-GIS[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1312-1317.
[26]唐波,刘希林,李元.珠江三角洲城市群灾害易损性时空格局差异分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(01):72-78.TANG B,LIU X L,LI Y. Hazard vulnerability analysis of the spatial temporal pattern differences in Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations[J]. Economic Geography,2013,33(01):72-78.