持续性强降水的区域模式动力中期预报研究
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摘要
持续性强降水及其次生灾害给人民的生产和生活造成严重影响,延伸其模式动力预报能力对防灾、减灾具有重要意义。随着对持续性强降水过程形成机理及模式动力中期预报认识的不断提高,以减小模式初始条件误差、边界条件误差以及内场预报误差为目标提出了一系列动力中期预报技术方法,主要包括:针对边界条件提出低通滤波技术方案,改进了5 d以上的环流及降水预报;针对模式预报内场进行谱逼近技术试验,对提前3—7 d的小雨以上量级的降水预报改进明显;针对初始条件进行多尺度混合更新初值技术预报试验,融合全球预报的大尺度场及区域模式预报的中小尺度场进行15 d预报,明显提高了50及100 mm以上的持续性累积降水预报时效。
Persistent severe rainfall(PSR) and its related phenomena lead to considerable threats to human safety and economic stability. Thereby, prolonging the forecast range would be of great importance to enhance our disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. With in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms for PSR events and the medium-term dynamic forecast methodology in the regional model, a set of improved methods for the medium-term dynamic forecasting of PSP events using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model is summarized with the aim to reduce errors in initial condition, lateral boundary condition and regional model interior forecasting. For the lateral boundary condition, the low-pass filtering method is applied to enable better forecasting of circulation fields and precipitation at lead times above 5 days. For the regional model interior forecasting, the use of spectral nudging leads to obvious improvements in the forecast of precipitation in the categories above light rain at lead times of 3-7 days. For the initial condition, the update of initial condition is an effective method to retain the large-scale forecast of the global model prediction and the small-scale features of the WRF forecasts. Results of 15-day forecasts using the WRF indicate that the update of initial condition significantly improve the forecast of accumulative precipitation above 50 and 100 mm.
Persistent severe rainfall(PSR) and its related phenomena lead to considerable threats to human safety and economic stability. Thereby, prolonging the forecast range would be of great importance to enhance our disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. With in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms for PSR events and the medium-term dynamic forecast methodology in the regional model, a set of improved methods for the medium-term dynamic forecasting of PSP events using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model is summarized with the aim to reduce errors in initial condition, lateral boundary condition and regional model interior forecasting. For the lateral boundary condition, the low-pass filtering method is applied to enable better forecasting of circulation fields and precipitation at lead times above 5 days. For the regional model interior forecasting, the use of spectral nudging leads to obvious improvements in the forecast of precipitation in the categories above light rain at lead times of 3-7 days. For the initial condition, the update of initial condition is an effective method to retain the large-scale forecast of the global model prediction and the small-scale features of the WRF forecasts. Results of 15-day forecasts using the WRF indicate that the update of initial condition significantly improve the forecast of accumulative precipitation above 50 and 100 mm.
引文
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丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏. 2010. 10—30 d延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考: 直面混沌. 气象科学, 30(5): 569-573. Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P. 2010. The think about 10-30 d extended-range numerical weather prediction strategy: Facing the atmosphere chaos. Scientia Meteor Sinica, 30(5): 569-573 (in Chinese)
董颜, 刘寿东, 王东海等. 2015. GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的预报技巧评估. 气象, 41(1): 45-51. Dong Y, Liu S D, Wang D H, et al. 2015. Assessment on forecasting skills of GFS model for two persistent rainfalls over southern China. Meteor Mon, 41(1): 45-51 (in Chinese)
杜钧. 2002. 集合预报的现状和前景. 应用气象学报, 13(1): 16-28. Du J. 2002. Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 13(1): 16-28 (in Chinese)
郭换换, 智协飞, 段明铿等. 2016. 数值天气预报中的不一致性问题综述. 气象科学, 36(1): 134-140. Guo H H, Zhi X F, Duan M K, et al. 2016. Review on the inconsistency of numerical weather prediction. Scientia Meteor Sinica, 36(1): 134-140 (in Chinese)
黄荣辉, 徐予红, 王鹏飞等. 1998. 1998年夏长江流域特大洪涝特征及其成因探讨. 气候与环境研究, 3(4): 300-313. Huang R H, Xu Y H, Wang P F, et al. 1998. The features of the catastrophic flood over the Changjiang River Basin during the summer of 1998 and cause exploration. Climatic Environ Res, 3(4): 300-313 (in Chinese)
矫梅燕, 龚建东, 周兵等. 2006. 天气预报的业务技术进展. 应用气象学报, 17(5): 594-601. Jiao H Y, Gong J D, Zhou B, et al. 2006. An overview of the development of weather forecasting. J Appl Meteor Sci, 17(5): 594-601 (in Chinese)
刘琳, 陈静, 程龙等. 2013. 基于集合预报的中国极端强降水预报方法研究. 气象学报, 71(5): 853-866. Liu L, Chen J, Cheng L, et al. 2013. Study of the ensemble-based forecast of extremely heavy rainfalls in China: Experiments for July 2011 cases. Acta Meteor Sinica, 71(5): 853-866 (in Chinese)
陆如华, 徐传玉, 张玲等. 1997. 卡尔曼滤波的初值计算方法及其应用. 应用气象学报, 8(1): 34-43. Lu R H, Xu C Y, Zhang L, et al. 1997. Calculation method for initial value of Kalman filter and its application. Quart J Appl Meteor, 8(1): 34-43 (in Chinese)
牛若芸, 张志刚, 金荣花. 2012. 2010年我国南方两次持续性强降水的环流特征. 应用气象学报, 23(4): 385-394. Niu R Y, Zhang Z G, Jin R H. 2012. The atmospheric circulation features of two persistent heavy rainfalls over southern China in the summer of 2010. J Appl Meteor Sci, 23(4): 385-394 (in chinese)
钱维宏, 单晓龙, 朱亚芬. 2012. 天气尺度扰动流场对区域暴雨的指示能力. 地球物理学报, 55(5): 1513-1522. Qian W H, Shan X L, Zhu Y F. 2012. Capability of regional-scale transient wind anomalies to indicate regional heavy rains. Chinese J Geophys, 55(5): 1513-1522 (in chinese)
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