地震烈度速报产品可靠性分析
|
摘要
借鉴美国Shake Map系统中产品可靠性分析方法,结合福建地区现有地震烈度速报系统,讨论了影响烈度速报产品可靠性的主要因素,给出评估烈度速报产品可靠性的分析方法,研发相应分析模块。以福建仙游地震、四川汶川地震、台湾集集地震为例,分别展示了烈度速报产品分析结果,并对影响产品可靠性的因素及其影响程度进行分析讨论。结果表明,在台站稀疏地区,烈度速报产品的可靠性主要受所选用经验衰减关系的准确性和适用性影响;而在台站较密集的区域,产品的可靠性受到震源机制的详细程度等用于修正烈度速报产品结果的参考条件详细程度的影响。
Reference to the product uncertainty analysis method in Shake Map system,combined with seismic intensity rapid report system( SIRRs) in Fujian region,we discussed main effect factors that may influence products quality and proposed an evaluation method,and a running module was developed based on it. Taking the Xianyou earthquake of Fujian,the great Wenchuan earthquake and the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan for examples,we showed the analysis results and discussed influence degree of each factors. Results show that,in regions with sparse seismic monitoring stations,accuracy and applicability of chosen ground motion parameter attenuation relationship is the main affecting factor for seismic intensity estimation. But when big earthquake occurs,details of seismogenic fault may provide additional information for such products,and the influence of the earthquake may accurate estimated based on it,even if dense seismic monitoring stations around the epicenter.
Reference to the product uncertainty analysis method in Shake Map system,combined with seismic intensity rapid report system( SIRRs) in Fujian region,we discussed main effect factors that may influence products quality and proposed an evaluation method,and a running module was developed based on it. Taking the Xianyou earthquake of Fujian,the great Wenchuan earthquake and the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan for examples,we showed the analysis results and discussed influence degree of each factors. Results show that,in regions with sparse seismic monitoring stations,accuracy and applicability of chosen ground motion parameter attenuation relationship is the main affecting factor for seismic intensity estimation. But when big earthquake occurs,details of seismogenic fault may provide additional information for such products,and the influence of the earthquake may accurate estimated based on it,even if dense seismic monitoring stations around the epicenter.
引文
[1]Alberto M,Licia F,Valentino L,et al.Shake Map implementation in Italy[J].Seismological Research Letters,2008,79(5):688-697.
[2]Hadjam A.On the correlation of the components of stong motion-part 2[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.1981.
[3]Boore D M,Gibbs J F,Joyner W B,et al.Estimated ground motion from the 1994 Northridge,California,earthquake at the site of the Interstate10 and La Cienega Boulevard Bridge Collapse,West Los Angeles,California[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.93,2003(6):2737-2751.
[4]David J W,Kuo Wan L,Vincent Q.Quantifying and qualifying USGS Shake Map uncertainty[R].USGS Open-File Report,2008:1238.
[5]David J W,Vincent Q,Thomas H,et al.Tri Net“Shake Maps”:rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquake in Southern California[J].Earthquake Spectra,1999,15(3):537-555.
[6]EPRI CEUS ground motion project:model development and results[R].EPRI Report 1008910,EPRI,Palo Alto,CA(2003).105.
[7]Goda K,Hong H P.Spatial correlation of peak ground motions and response spectra[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2008,98(3):354-365.
[8]Kuo Wan L,David J W,Bruce W,et al.Quantifying CISN Shake Map uncertainty[R].SMIP05 Seminar Proceedings on the Utilization of Strong Motion Data,2005.
[9]National institute of building sciences and federal emergency management agency(NIBS and FEMA).Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology,Earthquake Model,HAZUSMH Technical Manual[R].Federal Emergency Management Agency,Washington,DC,2003:690.
[10]Thomas B B,Mitch W.Implementing Shake Map for the New Madrid seismic zone[J].Seismological Research Letters,2006,77(4):445-442.
[11]Yoshimitsu O,Keiji K,Sadaki H,et al.Recent progress of seismic observation networks in Japan-Hi-net,F-net,K-NET and Ki K-net[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56,xv-xxviii.
[12]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层尺度[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27.CHEN Yuntai.On the magnitude and the fault length of the great Wenchuan earthquake[J].Science&Technology Review,2008,26(10):26-27.(in Chinese)
[13]段洪杰,崔建文,周挚,等.Shake Map二次开发与软件集成研究[J].地震研究,2009,32(4):420-425.DUAN Hongjie,CUI Jianwen,ZHOU Zhi,et al.Study on Shake Map second development and software integration[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2009,32(4):420-425.(in Chinese)
[14]杜义,谢富仁,张效亮,等.汶川Ms8.0级地震断层滑动机制研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):464-473.DU Yi,XIE Furen,ZHANG Xiaoliang,et al.The mechanics of fault slip of Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):464-473.(in Chinese)
[15]冯启民,胡聿贤.空间相关性地面运行的数学模型[J].地震工程与工程振动,1981,2(1):1-8.FENG Qimin,HU Yuxian.Mathematical simulation of earthquake ground motion considering spatial correlations[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,1981,2(1):1-8.(in Chinese)
[16]金星,陈超,张明宇.单侧破裂震源对地震动空间相关性影响的远场分析[J].地震学报,2000a,22(5):509-516.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao,ZHANG Mingyu.Far-field analysis of effects of unilateral rupturing fault on the space correlation of strong ground motion[J].ACTA Seismologica Sinica,2000a,22(5):509-516.(in Chinese)
[17]金星,陈超,张明宇.震源对地震动空间相关性影响的定量研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000b,20(1):1-10.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao,ZHANG Mingyu.Quantitative research on effects of seismic source on space correlation of strong ground motion[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,2000b,20(1):1-10.(in Chinese)
[18]金星,陈超,张明宇,等.双侧破裂模型对地震动空间相关性影响的定量研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2001,21(1):1-8.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao,ZHANG Mingyu,et al.Quantitative research on effects of bilateral rupture fault on spatial correlation of strong ground motion[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,2001,21(1):1-8.(in Chinese)
[19]金星,陈超.双侧破裂模型对地震动空间相关性影响的远场分析[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(1):51-58.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao.Far-field analysis of effects of bilateral rupture fault on spatial correlation of strong ground motion[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,10(1):51-58.(in Chinese)
[20]张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学:D辑,2008(10):1186-1194.ZHANG Yong,FENG Wanpeng,XU Lisheng,et al.Temporal-spatial source rupture process of 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake[J].Science China:Earth Since,2008(10):1186-1194.(in Chinese)
[2]Hadjam A.On the correlation of the components of stong motion-part 2[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.1981.
[3]Boore D M,Gibbs J F,Joyner W B,et al.Estimated ground motion from the 1994 Northridge,California,earthquake at the site of the Interstate10 and La Cienega Boulevard Bridge Collapse,West Los Angeles,California[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.93,2003(6):2737-2751.
[4]David J W,Kuo Wan L,Vincent Q.Quantifying and qualifying USGS Shake Map uncertainty[R].USGS Open-File Report,2008:1238.
[5]David J W,Vincent Q,Thomas H,et al.Tri Net“Shake Maps”:rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquake in Southern California[J].Earthquake Spectra,1999,15(3):537-555.
[6]EPRI CEUS ground motion project:model development and results[R].EPRI Report 1008910,EPRI,Palo Alto,CA(2003).105.
[7]Goda K,Hong H P.Spatial correlation of peak ground motions and response spectra[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2008,98(3):354-365.
[8]Kuo Wan L,David J W,Bruce W,et al.Quantifying CISN Shake Map uncertainty[R].SMIP05 Seminar Proceedings on the Utilization of Strong Motion Data,2005.
[9]National institute of building sciences and federal emergency management agency(NIBS and FEMA).Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology,Earthquake Model,HAZUSMH Technical Manual[R].Federal Emergency Management Agency,Washington,DC,2003:690.
[10]Thomas B B,Mitch W.Implementing Shake Map for the New Madrid seismic zone[J].Seismological Research Letters,2006,77(4):445-442.
[11]Yoshimitsu O,Keiji K,Sadaki H,et al.Recent progress of seismic observation networks in Japan-Hi-net,F-net,K-NET and Ki K-net[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56,xv-xxviii.
[12]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层尺度[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27.CHEN Yuntai.On the magnitude and the fault length of the great Wenchuan earthquake[J].Science&Technology Review,2008,26(10):26-27.(in Chinese)
[13]段洪杰,崔建文,周挚,等.Shake Map二次开发与软件集成研究[J].地震研究,2009,32(4):420-425.DUAN Hongjie,CUI Jianwen,ZHOU Zhi,et al.Study on Shake Map second development and software integration[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2009,32(4):420-425.(in Chinese)
[14]杜义,谢富仁,张效亮,等.汶川Ms8.0级地震断层滑动机制研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):464-473.DU Yi,XIE Furen,ZHANG Xiaoliang,et al.The mechanics of fault slip of Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):464-473.(in Chinese)
[15]冯启民,胡聿贤.空间相关性地面运行的数学模型[J].地震工程与工程振动,1981,2(1):1-8.FENG Qimin,HU Yuxian.Mathematical simulation of earthquake ground motion considering spatial correlations[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,1981,2(1):1-8.(in Chinese)
[16]金星,陈超,张明宇.单侧破裂震源对地震动空间相关性影响的远场分析[J].地震学报,2000a,22(5):509-516.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao,ZHANG Mingyu.Far-field analysis of effects of unilateral rupturing fault on the space correlation of strong ground motion[J].ACTA Seismologica Sinica,2000a,22(5):509-516.(in Chinese)
[17]金星,陈超,张明宇.震源对地震动空间相关性影响的定量研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000b,20(1):1-10.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao,ZHANG Mingyu.Quantitative research on effects of seismic source on space correlation of strong ground motion[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,2000b,20(1):1-10.(in Chinese)
[18]金星,陈超,张明宇,等.双侧破裂模型对地震动空间相关性影响的定量研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2001,21(1):1-8.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao,ZHANG Mingyu,et al.Quantitative research on effects of bilateral rupture fault on spatial correlation of strong ground motion[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,2001,21(1):1-8.(in Chinese)
[19]金星,陈超.双侧破裂模型对地震动空间相关性影响的远场分析[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(1):51-58.JIN Xing,CHEN Chao.Far-field analysis of effects of bilateral rupture fault on spatial correlation of strong ground motion[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,10(1):51-58.(in Chinese)
[20]张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学:D辑,2008(10):1186-1194.ZHANG Yong,FENG Wanpeng,XU Lisheng,et al.Temporal-spatial source rupture process of 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake[J].Science China:Earth Since,2008(10):1186-1194.(in Chinese)