SWAN模式对西行台风所致台风浪的模拟分析
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摘要
针对西行台风浪特征难以把握的问题,基于目前国际先进的第三代海浪模式SWAN(simulating waves nearshore),以具有高精度、较高时空分辨率的CCMP(cross-calibrated,multi-platform)风场为驱动场,模拟分析影响中国海域的一系列西行台风浪特征。结果表明:以CCMP风场作为SWAN模式的驱动场,对中国海的台风浪进行数值模拟是可行的,模拟的有效波高具有较高精度;从统计的几个西行台风来看,近台风中心波高的低值中心主要位于台风中心的南部或西南部;西行台风的台风浪大值区并不严格分布于危险半圆(第一、第四象限),西行台风浪的大浪区主要分布于第一、第二象限,大浪区与传统的危险半圆重叠区域主要为第一象限。本研究为提高对西行台风浪的预报能力提供理论基础。
To better grasp the features of westbound typhoon waves,the features of a series of westbound typhoon waves affecting the China sea were simulated and analyzed based on the contemporary international advanced thirdgeneration wave model SWAN(simulating waves nearshore),taking a cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP)wind field with a high precision and high spatio-temporal resolution as the driving field. The results show that with CCMP wind field as the driving field,SWAN mode can effectively simulate the typhoon waves,and the simulated significant wave height(SWH) has a high accuracy. According to the statistical westbound typhoons,the low center of the SWH is near typhoon center,mainly located in the south or southwest area of the typhoon center. The area with large wave in westbound typhoon is not strictly distributed in the dangerous semicircle(the first and fourth quadrants); it is mainly distributed in the first and the second quadrants. The overlapping portion between the area with large wave and the area with the dangerous semicircle is mainly the first quadrant. This study can serve as a reference for improving the forecasting ability of westbound typhoon waves.
To better grasp the features of westbound typhoon waves,the features of a series of westbound typhoon waves affecting the China sea were simulated and analyzed based on the contemporary international advanced thirdgeneration wave model SWAN(simulating waves nearshore),taking a cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP)wind field with a high precision and high spatio-temporal resolution as the driving field. The results show that with CCMP wind field as the driving field,SWAN mode can effectively simulate the typhoon waves,and the simulated significant wave height(SWH) has a high accuracy. According to the statistical westbound typhoons,the low center of the SWH is near typhoon center,mainly located in the south or southwest area of the typhoon center. The area with large wave in westbound typhoon is not strictly distributed in the dangerous semicircle(the first and fourth quadrants); it is mainly distributed in the first and the second quadrants. The overlapping portion between the area with large wave and the area with the dangerous semicircle is mainly the first quadrant. This study can serve as a reference for improving the forecasting ability of westbound typhoon waves.
引文
[1]郑崇伟.21世纪海上丝绸之路:风能资源详查[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2018,39(1):16-22.ZHENG Chongwei.Wind energy evaluation of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2018,39(1):16-22.
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[8]郑崇伟,潘静,黄刚.利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2014,40(3):314-320.ZHENG Chongwei,PAN Jing,HUANG Gang.Forecasting of the China Sea ditching probability using WW3 wave model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2014,40(3):314-320.
[9]周媛媛,周林,关皓.西北太平洋三台风影响下海浪的数值模拟研究[J].海洋预报,2016,33(5):23-30.ZHOU Yuanyuan,ZHOU Lin,GUAN Hao.Numerical simulation of typhoon waves in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J].Marine forecasts,2016,33(5):23-30.
[10]夏璐一,栾曙光,张超.西北行路径台风浪的特征分析[J].大连海事大学学报,2014,29(6):654-658.XIA Luyi,LUAN Shuguang,ZHANG Chao.Wave characteristics of northwest moving path typhoon[J].Journal of Dalian Fisheries University,2014,29(6):654-658.
[11]郑崇伟,邵龙潭,林刚,等.台风浪对掠海飞行安全性的影响[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2014,35(3):301-305.ZHENG Chongwei,SHAO Longtan,LIN Gang,et al.Analysis of influence on the security of sea skimming caused by a typhoon wave[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2014,35(3):301-305.
[12]郑崇伟,李训强.基于WAVEWATCH-III模式的近22年中国海波浪能资源评估[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2011,41(11):5-12.ZHENG Chongwei,LI Xunqiang.Wave energy resources assessment in the China Sea during the last 22 years by using WAVEWATCH-Ⅲwave model[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China(nature science),2011,41(11):5-12.
[13]郑崇伟,潘静.全球海域风能资源评估及等级区划[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):364-371.ZHENG Chongwei,PAN Jing.Wind energy resources assessment in global ocean[J].Journal of natural resources,2012,27(3):364-371.
[14]关芬呈,于斌,林少奕,等.南海北部风暴潮数值计算中的圆对称台风风场模式[J].广东气象,2000(S1):44-49.GUAN Fencheng,YU Bin,LIN Shaoyi,et al.Circularly symmetric typhoon wind field model for numerical calculation of storm surge in the Northern South China Sea[J].Guangdong meteorology,2000(Suppl.):44-49.
[15]高山,丁平兴,朱首贤.Wave Watch的操作系统移植及其与SWAN嵌套接口的改进[J].海洋科学进展,2006,24(2):228-237.GAO Shan,DING Pingxing,ZHU Shouxian.Operating system transplantation of Wave Watch and modification of its nesting interface with SWAN[J].Advances in marine science,2006,24(2):228-237.
[16]Delft University of Technology.User manual of SWAN Cycle-III version 40.81[EB/OL].Available at http://www.swan.tudelft.nl.
[2]郑崇伟,李崇银.关于海洋新能源选址的难点及对策建议——以波浪能为例[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2018,39(2):200-206.ZHENG Chongwei,LI Chongyin.Overview of site selection difficulties for marine new energy power plant and suggestions:wave energy case study[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2018,39(2):200-206.
[3]郑崇伟.21世纪海上丝绸之路:风能的长期变化趋势[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2018,39(3):399-405.ZHENG Chongwei.Wind energy trend in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2018,39(3):399-405.
[4]许富祥.海浪预报现状与未来[J].海洋预报,2005,22(S1):172-175.XU Fuxiang.Current situation and future of wave forecast[J].Marine forecasts,2005,22(S1):172-175.
[5]江丽芳,张志旭,齐义泉,等.WAVEWATCH III和SWAN模式在南海北部海域海浪模拟结果的对比分析[J].热带海洋学报,2011,30(5):27-37.JIANG Lifang,ZHANG Zhixu,QI Yiquan,et al.Simulations of the northern South China Sea using WAVEWATCH III and SWAN[J].Journal of tropical oceanography,2011,30(5):27-37.
[6]李永博,吴克俭,毕凡,等.基于SWAN模式的成山头海域波浪能资源评估[J].海洋湖沼通报,2013(3):1-9.LI Yongbo,WU Kejian,BI Fan,et al.Wave energy resources assessment in the Chengshan cape sea during the last 20 years by using swan wave model[J].Transactions of oceanology and limnology,2013(3):1-9.
[7]宗芳伊,吴克俭.基于近20年的SWAN模式海浪模拟结果的南海波浪能分布、变化研究[J].海洋湖沼通报,2014(3):1-12.ZONG Fangyi,WU Kejian.Research on distributions and variations of wave energy in South China Sea based on recent 20 years'wave simulation results using Swan wave model[J].Transactions of oceanology and limnology,2014(3):1-12.
[8]郑崇伟,潘静,黄刚.利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2014,40(3):314-320.ZHENG Chongwei,PAN Jing,HUANG Gang.Forecasting of the China Sea ditching probability using WW3 wave model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2014,40(3):314-320.
[9]周媛媛,周林,关皓.西北太平洋三台风影响下海浪的数值模拟研究[J].海洋预报,2016,33(5):23-30.ZHOU Yuanyuan,ZHOU Lin,GUAN Hao.Numerical simulation of typhoon waves in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J].Marine forecasts,2016,33(5):23-30.
[10]夏璐一,栾曙光,张超.西北行路径台风浪的特征分析[J].大连海事大学学报,2014,29(6):654-658.XIA Luyi,LUAN Shuguang,ZHANG Chao.Wave characteristics of northwest moving path typhoon[J].Journal of Dalian Fisheries University,2014,29(6):654-658.
[11]郑崇伟,邵龙潭,林刚,等.台风浪对掠海飞行安全性的影响[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2014,35(3):301-305.ZHENG Chongwei,SHAO Longtan,LIN Gang,et al.Analysis of influence on the security of sea skimming caused by a typhoon wave[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2014,35(3):301-305.
[12]郑崇伟,李训强.基于WAVEWATCH-III模式的近22年中国海波浪能资源评估[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2011,41(11):5-12.ZHENG Chongwei,LI Xunqiang.Wave energy resources assessment in the China Sea during the last 22 years by using WAVEWATCH-Ⅲwave model[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China(nature science),2011,41(11):5-12.
[13]郑崇伟,潘静.全球海域风能资源评估及等级区划[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):364-371.ZHENG Chongwei,PAN Jing.Wind energy resources assessment in global ocean[J].Journal of natural resources,2012,27(3):364-371.
[14]关芬呈,于斌,林少奕,等.南海北部风暴潮数值计算中的圆对称台风风场模式[J].广东气象,2000(S1):44-49.GUAN Fencheng,YU Bin,LIN Shaoyi,et al.Circularly symmetric typhoon wind field model for numerical calculation of storm surge in the Northern South China Sea[J].Guangdong meteorology,2000(Suppl.):44-49.
[15]高山,丁平兴,朱首贤.Wave Watch的操作系统移植及其与SWAN嵌套接口的改进[J].海洋科学进展,2006,24(2):228-237.GAO Shan,DING Pingxing,ZHU Shouxian.Operating system transplantation of Wave Watch and modification of its nesting interface with SWAN[J].Advances in marine science,2006,24(2):228-237.
[16]Delft University of Technology.User manual of SWAN Cycle-III version 40.81[EB/OL].Available at http://www.swan.tudelft.nl.