林芝地区小麦条锈菌与气象因子的关系及流行动态模型的构建
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摘要
为了解西藏林芝地区气象因子对小麦条锈病的影响及其流行动态,2016年采用五点取样法对林芝地区小麦条锈病的发病情况进行监测,通过相关性分析、逐步回归C(p)统计法和线性回归等方法,分析了病情指数与气象因子的关系,并结合时间和病情指数建立了病害预测模型。结果表明,在林芝地区,温度X_1、湿度X_2均与小麦条锈病病情指数Y呈极显著相关,降雨量X_3与病情指数Y呈显著相关;线性回归方程为:Y=-482.5991+19.7494X1+3.7974X2-0.8439X3。根据模拟情况选择的病害流行动态方程为Y=1/e~((0.914t+0.385)),决定系数为0.952,模型的拟合效果较好,表明该模型能够为林芝地区小麦条锈病的预测预报提供有效的参考依据。
To understand the meteorological factors affecting the stripe rust in wheat and its epidemiology in Linzhi, Tibet, the incidence of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici was investigated with five point sampling method, and the relationship between the disease index and meteorological factors was studied with using correlation analysis, stepwise regression and linear regression analysis. The results showed that there was highly significant positive correlation among temperature, relative humidity and the disease index. Significant positive correlation between the disease index and rainfall was found. The equation of linear regression was Y=-482.5991 + 19.7494 X_1+ 3.7974 X_2-0.8439 X_3. According to the date and disease index, the disease prediction models were constructed, and the regression equation was Y=1/e~((0.914 t + 0.385))with R square value was 0.952, indicating that this model could well reflect the temporal dynamic of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici in Linzhi.
To understand the meteorological factors affecting the stripe rust in wheat and its epidemiology in Linzhi, Tibet, the incidence of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici was investigated with five point sampling method, and the relationship between the disease index and meteorological factors was studied with using correlation analysis, stepwise regression and linear regression analysis. The results showed that there was highly significant positive correlation among temperature, relative humidity and the disease index. Significant positive correlation between the disease index and rainfall was found. The equation of linear regression was Y=-482.5991 + 19.7494 X_1+ 3.7974 X_2-0.8439 X_3. According to the date and disease index, the disease prediction models were constructed, and the regression equation was Y=1/e~((0.914 t + 0.385))with R square value was 0.952, indicating that this model could well reflect the temporal dynamic of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici in Linzhi.
引文
Chen L.2012.Occurrence characteristics and integrated control strategies of wheat stripe rust in Tibet.China Plant Protection,32(11):28-30(in Chinese)[陈俐.2012.小麦条锈病在西藏的发生为害特点及综合防治策略.中国植保导刊,32(11):28-30]
Coulson RN.1992.Intelligent geographic information systems and integrated pest management.Crop Protection,11(6):507-516
Fan SQ,Xie XS,Li F,Yin QY,Zheng WY.2007.Forecast model for prevalent stripe rust in winter wheat in Shanxi Province.Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,15(4):113-115(in Chinese)[范绍强,谢咸升,李峰,尹青云,郑王义.2007.山西省小麦条锈病流行趋势预测模型研究.中国生态农业学报,15(4):113-115]
Fininsa C,Yuen J.2001.Association of maize rust and leaf blight epidemics with cropping systems in Hararghe highlands,eastern Ethiopia.Crop Protection,20(8):669-678
Hu XP,Yang ZW,Li ZQ,Deng ZY,Chen HW,Ke CH.2000.Factors analysis affected the epidemics of wheat stripe rust in Hanzhong District,Shaanxi Province.Acta Agriculturae Boreali-Occidentalis Sinica,9(2):36-38(in Chinese)[胡小平,杨之为,李振岐,邓志勇,陈汉吾,柯长华.2000.汉中地区小麦条锈病流行因子分析.西北农业学报,9(2):36-38]
Jia JM,Zhang MJ,Xu QZ,Mao GP,Xu QE,Wang JF,Tian GW.2008.A meteorological forecast model for stripe rust of wheat in middle and lower reaches of Yellow River.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,29(3):365-370(in Chinese)[贾金明,张明捷,徐巧真,毛桂萍,徐庆娥,王俊峰,田国卫.2008.黄河中下游地区小麦条锈病气象预报模型.中国农业气象,29(3):365-370]
Lalancette N,Madden LV,Ellis MA.1988.A quantitative model for describing the sporulation of Plasmopara viticola on grape leaves.Phytopathology,78(10):1316-1321
Li DK,Quan WT,Xie FZ.2017.Meteorological forecast model for stripe rust of wheat in Shaanxi Province.Journal of Arid Meteorology,35(1):128-133(in Chinese)[李登科,权文婷,谢飞舟.2017.陕西省小麦条锈病气象预报模型.干旱气象,35(1):128-133]
Li ZQ,Zeng SM.2002.Wheat rusts in China.Beijing:Chinese Agriculture Press,pp.41-208,224-226(in Chinese)[李振岐,曾士迈.2002.中国小麦锈病.北京:中国农业出版社,pp.41-208,224-226]
Luo Y,Zeng SM.1990.Study on the epidemic simulation model of yellow rust of wheat.Journal of China Agricultural University,(S1):1-21(in Chinese)[骆勇,曾士迈.1990.小麦条锈病流行模拟模型的研制.中国农业大学学报,(S1):1-21]
LüJP,Lu J,He YS,Li YH,Wen SM,Yin JQ,Yin MF.2004.Preliminary study on epidemic causes and control measures of wheat stripe rust in Yunnan.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,20(3):232-234(in Chinese)[吕建平,卢俊,何云松,李亚红,温三明,殷减清,尹明芬.2004.云南省小麦条锈病发生流行原因及其治理对策初探.中国农学通报,20(3):232-234]
Ma ZH,Shi SD,Jiang YY,Zhao ZH.2004.Climate-based regional classification for oversummering of Puccinia striiformis in China.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,34(5):455-462(in Chinese)[马占鸿,石守定,姜玉英,赵中华.2004.基于GIS的中国小麦条锈病菌越夏区气候区划.植物病理学报,34(5):455-462]
Nelson MR,Orum TV,Jaimegarcia R,Nadeem A.1999.Applications of geographic information systems and geostatistics in plant disease epidemiology and management.Plant Disease,83(4):308-319
Pu JY,Yao XY,Yang QB,Yuan BS,Yao XH.2008.Analysis of relationship between the development of wheat stripe rust and the meteorological condition in southwest Tianshui of Gansu Province.Journal of Arid Meteorology,26(3):63-66(in Chinese)[蒲金涌,姚小英,杨全保,袁佰顺,姚晓红.2008.天水地区条锈病的发生与气象条件关系研究.干旱气象,26(3):63-66]
Shang HS,Ren WL,Wang SM.1990.Discussion on grading standards of stripe rust severity in wheat.Plant Protection,16(1):31(in Chinese)[商鸿生,任文礼,王素梅.1990.小麦条锈病严重度分级标准图的探讨.植物保护,16(1):31]
Wan AM,Niu YC,Wu LR,Yuan WH,Li GB,Jia QZ,Jin SL,Yang JX,Li YF,Bi YQ.1999.Physiologic specialization of stripe rust of wheat in China during 1991-1996.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,29(1):15-20(in Chinese)[万安民,牛永春,吴立人,袁文焕,李高宝,贾秋珍,金社林,杨家秀,李艳芳,毕云青.1999.1991-1996年我国小麦条锈菌生理专化研究.植物病理学报,29(1):15-20]
Wang KN,Wu LR,Meng YQ,Xie SX,Lu DY,Yuan WH,Yu XR,Song WZ,Liu SJ,Wang JQ,et al.1986.On the physiologic specialization of stripe rust of wheat in China during the years 1975-1984.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,16(2):79-85(in Chinese)[汪可宁,吴立人,孟庆玉,谢水仙,路端谊,袁文焕,于孝如,宋位中,刘守俭,王吉庆,等.1986.1975-1984年我国小麦条锈菌生理专化研究.植物病理学报,16(2):79-85]
Xiao YY,Zeng SM,Zhang WY,Wang PY.1983.SIMYR-a simple simulation model for epidemic of wheat stripe rust,Puccinia striiformis West.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,13(1):1-13(in Chinese)[肖悦岩,曾士迈,张万义,王沛有.1983.SIMYR-小麦条锈病流行的简要模拟模型.植物病理学报,13(1):1-13]
Xiao ZQ,Li ZM,Fan M,Zhang Y,Ma SJ.2007.Prediction model on stripe rust influence extent of winter wheat in Longnan Mountain area.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,28(3):350-353(in Chinese)[肖志强,李宗明,樊明,张燕,马素娟.2007.陇南山区小麦条锈病流行程度预测模型.中国农业气象,28(3):350-353]
Xiong ZH,Liu L,Liu B,Yin XH.2011.The relationships between outbreak of wheat stripe rust and climatic conditions.Journal of Qinghai University,29(4):26-28(in Chinese)[熊增海,刘丽,刘兵,殷显辉.2011.小麦条锈病发生流行与气候条件的关系.青海大学学报,29(4):26-28]
Yang MN,Peng YL,Qiang XL,Zhuo G,Liu TG,Chen WQ.2012.Monitoring of variation in resistance to stripe rust of wheat cultivars in Tibet.Journal of Triticeae Crops,32(3):557-562(in Chinese)[杨敏娜,彭岳林,强小林,卓嘎,刘太国,陈万权.2012.小麦品种在西藏的抗条锈性变异监测分析.麦类作物学报,32(3):557-562]
Yang YH,Su QY,Wang ZL,Zhou TY,Liu XG,Bi CW,Yu Y,Kang ZS.2016.Occurrence regularity and influencing factors of wheat stripe rust in Chongqing.Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),44(9):151-157(in Chinese)[杨宇衡,宿巧燕,王泽乐,周天云,刘祥贵,毕朝位,余洋,康振生.2016.重庆市小麦条锈病发生规律和影响因素分析.西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),44(9):151-157]
Zeng SM,Zhang WY,Xiao YY.1981.A preliminary report on the computer simulation of wheat stripe rust-a simple model in spring.Journal of China Agricultural University,14(3):1-12(in Chinese)[曾士迈,张万义,肖悦岩.1981.小麦条锈病的电算模拟研究初报--春季流行的一个简要模型.中国农业大学学报,14(3):1-12]
Zhao J,Zhao SL,Peng YL,Qin JF,Huang LL,Kang ZS.2016.Investigation on geographic distribution and identification of six Berberis spp.serving as alternate host for Puccinia striiformis f.sp.tritici in Linzhi,Tibet.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,46(1):103-111(in Chinese)[赵杰,赵世垒,彭岳林,覃剑锋,黄丽丽,康振生.2016.林芝地区小麦条锈菌转主寄主小檗的鉴定与分布.植物病理学报,46(1):103-111]
Coulson RN.1992.Intelligent geographic information systems and integrated pest management.Crop Protection,11(6):507-516
Fan SQ,Xie XS,Li F,Yin QY,Zheng WY.2007.Forecast model for prevalent stripe rust in winter wheat in Shanxi Province.Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,15(4):113-115(in Chinese)[范绍强,谢咸升,李峰,尹青云,郑王义.2007.山西省小麦条锈病流行趋势预测模型研究.中国生态农业学报,15(4):113-115]
Fininsa C,Yuen J.2001.Association of maize rust and leaf blight epidemics with cropping systems in Hararghe highlands,eastern Ethiopia.Crop Protection,20(8):669-678
Hu XP,Yang ZW,Li ZQ,Deng ZY,Chen HW,Ke CH.2000.Factors analysis affected the epidemics of wheat stripe rust in Hanzhong District,Shaanxi Province.Acta Agriculturae Boreali-Occidentalis Sinica,9(2):36-38(in Chinese)[胡小平,杨之为,李振岐,邓志勇,陈汉吾,柯长华.2000.汉中地区小麦条锈病流行因子分析.西北农业学报,9(2):36-38]
Jia JM,Zhang MJ,Xu QZ,Mao GP,Xu QE,Wang JF,Tian GW.2008.A meteorological forecast model for stripe rust of wheat in middle and lower reaches of Yellow River.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,29(3):365-370(in Chinese)[贾金明,张明捷,徐巧真,毛桂萍,徐庆娥,王俊峰,田国卫.2008.黄河中下游地区小麦条锈病气象预报模型.中国农业气象,29(3):365-370]
Lalancette N,Madden LV,Ellis MA.1988.A quantitative model for describing the sporulation of Plasmopara viticola on grape leaves.Phytopathology,78(10):1316-1321
Li DK,Quan WT,Xie FZ.2017.Meteorological forecast model for stripe rust of wheat in Shaanxi Province.Journal of Arid Meteorology,35(1):128-133(in Chinese)[李登科,权文婷,谢飞舟.2017.陕西省小麦条锈病气象预报模型.干旱气象,35(1):128-133]
Li ZQ,Zeng SM.2002.Wheat rusts in China.Beijing:Chinese Agriculture Press,pp.41-208,224-226(in Chinese)[李振岐,曾士迈.2002.中国小麦锈病.北京:中国农业出版社,pp.41-208,224-226]
Luo Y,Zeng SM.1990.Study on the epidemic simulation model of yellow rust of wheat.Journal of China Agricultural University,(S1):1-21(in Chinese)[骆勇,曾士迈.1990.小麦条锈病流行模拟模型的研制.中国农业大学学报,(S1):1-21]
LüJP,Lu J,He YS,Li YH,Wen SM,Yin JQ,Yin MF.2004.Preliminary study on epidemic causes and control measures of wheat stripe rust in Yunnan.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,20(3):232-234(in Chinese)[吕建平,卢俊,何云松,李亚红,温三明,殷减清,尹明芬.2004.云南省小麦条锈病发生流行原因及其治理对策初探.中国农学通报,20(3):232-234]
Ma ZH,Shi SD,Jiang YY,Zhao ZH.2004.Climate-based regional classification for oversummering of Puccinia striiformis in China.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,34(5):455-462(in Chinese)[马占鸿,石守定,姜玉英,赵中华.2004.基于GIS的中国小麦条锈病菌越夏区气候区划.植物病理学报,34(5):455-462]
Nelson MR,Orum TV,Jaimegarcia R,Nadeem A.1999.Applications of geographic information systems and geostatistics in plant disease epidemiology and management.Plant Disease,83(4):308-319
Pu JY,Yao XY,Yang QB,Yuan BS,Yao XH.2008.Analysis of relationship between the development of wheat stripe rust and the meteorological condition in southwest Tianshui of Gansu Province.Journal of Arid Meteorology,26(3):63-66(in Chinese)[蒲金涌,姚小英,杨全保,袁佰顺,姚晓红.2008.天水地区条锈病的发生与气象条件关系研究.干旱气象,26(3):63-66]
Shang HS,Ren WL,Wang SM.1990.Discussion on grading standards of stripe rust severity in wheat.Plant Protection,16(1):31(in Chinese)[商鸿生,任文礼,王素梅.1990.小麦条锈病严重度分级标准图的探讨.植物保护,16(1):31]
Wan AM,Niu YC,Wu LR,Yuan WH,Li GB,Jia QZ,Jin SL,Yang JX,Li YF,Bi YQ.1999.Physiologic specialization of stripe rust of wheat in China during 1991-1996.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,29(1):15-20(in Chinese)[万安民,牛永春,吴立人,袁文焕,李高宝,贾秋珍,金社林,杨家秀,李艳芳,毕云青.1999.1991-1996年我国小麦条锈菌生理专化研究.植物病理学报,29(1):15-20]
Wang KN,Wu LR,Meng YQ,Xie SX,Lu DY,Yuan WH,Yu XR,Song WZ,Liu SJ,Wang JQ,et al.1986.On the physiologic specialization of stripe rust of wheat in China during the years 1975-1984.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,16(2):79-85(in Chinese)[汪可宁,吴立人,孟庆玉,谢水仙,路端谊,袁文焕,于孝如,宋位中,刘守俭,王吉庆,等.1986.1975-1984年我国小麦条锈菌生理专化研究.植物病理学报,16(2):79-85]
Xiao YY,Zeng SM,Zhang WY,Wang PY.1983.SIMYR-a simple simulation model for epidemic of wheat stripe rust,Puccinia striiformis West.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,13(1):1-13(in Chinese)[肖悦岩,曾士迈,张万义,王沛有.1983.SIMYR-小麦条锈病流行的简要模拟模型.植物病理学报,13(1):1-13]
Xiao ZQ,Li ZM,Fan M,Zhang Y,Ma SJ.2007.Prediction model on stripe rust influence extent of winter wheat in Longnan Mountain area.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,28(3):350-353(in Chinese)[肖志强,李宗明,樊明,张燕,马素娟.2007.陇南山区小麦条锈病流行程度预测模型.中国农业气象,28(3):350-353]
Xiong ZH,Liu L,Liu B,Yin XH.2011.The relationships between outbreak of wheat stripe rust and climatic conditions.Journal of Qinghai University,29(4):26-28(in Chinese)[熊增海,刘丽,刘兵,殷显辉.2011.小麦条锈病发生流行与气候条件的关系.青海大学学报,29(4):26-28]
Yang MN,Peng YL,Qiang XL,Zhuo G,Liu TG,Chen WQ.2012.Monitoring of variation in resistance to stripe rust of wheat cultivars in Tibet.Journal of Triticeae Crops,32(3):557-562(in Chinese)[杨敏娜,彭岳林,强小林,卓嘎,刘太国,陈万权.2012.小麦品种在西藏的抗条锈性变异监测分析.麦类作物学报,32(3):557-562]
Yang YH,Su QY,Wang ZL,Zhou TY,Liu XG,Bi CW,Yu Y,Kang ZS.2016.Occurrence regularity and influencing factors of wheat stripe rust in Chongqing.Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),44(9):151-157(in Chinese)[杨宇衡,宿巧燕,王泽乐,周天云,刘祥贵,毕朝位,余洋,康振生.2016.重庆市小麦条锈病发生规律和影响因素分析.西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),44(9):151-157]
Zeng SM,Zhang WY,Xiao YY.1981.A preliminary report on the computer simulation of wheat stripe rust-a simple model in spring.Journal of China Agricultural University,14(3):1-12(in Chinese)[曾士迈,张万义,肖悦岩.1981.小麦条锈病的电算模拟研究初报--春季流行的一个简要模型.中国农业大学学报,14(3):1-12]
Zhao J,Zhao SL,Peng YL,Qin JF,Huang LL,Kang ZS.2016.Investigation on geographic distribution and identification of six Berberis spp.serving as alternate host for Puccinia striiformis f.sp.tritici in Linzhi,Tibet.Acta Phytopathologica Sinica,46(1):103-111(in Chinese)[赵杰,赵世垒,彭岳林,覃剑锋,黄丽丽,康振生.2016.林芝地区小麦条锈菌转主寄主小檗的鉴定与分布.植物病理学报,46(1):103-111]