寿险保单退保影响因素研究——基于“信息认知偏差理论”的解释
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摘要
文章探讨了导致寿险保单退保的"信息认知偏差"理论及其决定因素。保单持有人有关于保险产品信息的掌握,既受到个体特质如教育、年龄、婚姻等因素的影响,也受到产品自身复杂程度以及销售环境的影响。因此,投保人其实是在掌握不同数量信息的局限下维持一份"质量有差别"的保单。随着投保人有关保单信息的增加,其中"有偏差信息"的保单退保率会增加。本文使用中国某寿险公司投资类险种的个体保单数据,基于logit模型对理论进行检验,发现:教育水平较低的投保人更容易发生信息认知偏差;保单类型提供了不同的信息纠偏机会,分红寿险相对于万能寿险更容易出现信息认知偏差并退保;保险期限越短"信息纠偏"的机会相对于期限较长的保单更大,退保率较高;销售端来看,学历水平越低、年龄偏大的销售代理人更容易发生低质量的信息传递从而造成更多的退保。本文在理论上丰富了现有的退保理论,研究结论对于保险公司提升保单管理质量、监管机构制定政策具有重要的参考价值。
This paper explored the "information cognitive bias theory"regarding the surrender of life insurance policies and its determinants. Policyholders' information on the insurance product is influenced either by his or her characteristics such as education,age and marital status,or by the complexity of products and sales environments.As a result,policyholders maintain their policies of varied quality with different amount of information. As policyholders learn more information on products,they tend to surrender the polices with biased information. Based on data of investment-oriented policies of one Chinese life insurance company,and supported by logit regression,this paper found out: ill-educated policyholders were more exposed to biased cognition in information; different type of products provided different chances of correcting such a bias. Participating life insurance as opposed to universal life insurance were more easily detected with cognitive bias,and hence surrendered; the shorter the policy coverage period,the more chances for cognitive rectification and thus higher surrender rate; for sales environment,the older and less educated the agent,the higher chances of low quality information transmission and hence more surrenders.This paper can enrich the existing theories on insurance policy surrender,and its conclusions may provide valuable insights and suggestions both on management of policies for insurers and decision-making for regulatory institute.
This paper explored the "information cognitive bias theory"regarding the surrender of life insurance policies and its determinants. Policyholders' information on the insurance product is influenced either by his or her characteristics such as education,age and marital status,or by the complexity of products and sales environments.As a result,policyholders maintain their policies of varied quality with different amount of information. As policyholders learn more information on products,they tend to surrender the polices with biased information. Based on data of investment-oriented policies of one Chinese life insurance company,and supported by logit regression,this paper found out: ill-educated policyholders were more exposed to biased cognition in information; different type of products provided different chances of correcting such a bias. Participating life insurance as opposed to universal life insurance were more easily detected with cognitive bias,and hence surrendered; the shorter the policy coverage period,the more chances for cognitive rectification and thus higher surrender rate; for sales environment,the older and less educated the agent,the higher chances of low quality information transmission and hence more surrenders.This paper can enrich the existing theories on insurance policy surrender,and its conclusions may provide valuable insights and suggestions both on management of policies for insurers and decision-making for regulatory institute.
引文
[1]郭春燕,易丹辉.Cox模型和寿险退保研究中的比例危险性[J].统计与信息论坛,2007,(3):37-43.
[2]展凯.中国寿险市场退保影响因素的实证分析[J]当代经济科学,2008,(4):93-98.
[3]孙蓉、张宗军.寿险业退保行为及其影响因素实证研究[J].保险研究,2012,(8):39-45.
[4]王向楠.中国寿险产品退保的实证研究:基于险种分类视角[J].广东金融学院学报,2012(6):104-113.
[5]展凯,陈华.我国寿险保单退保影响因素的实证研究---基于公司层面的微观数据[J].保险研究,2013(6):59-67
[6]Babbel D.F.,1979,“Measuring inflation impact on life insurance costs”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,46,316-342.
[7]Cerchiara,R.R.,A.Gambini and M.Edwards,2009,“Generalized Linear Models in Life Insurance-Decrements and Risk factor analysis under Solvency II”,Giornale dell stituto Italiano degli Attuari,72,100-122.
[8]Cox,S.H.,and Y.Lin,2006,“Annuity Lapse Rate Modeling:Tobit or Not Tobit?”Society of Actuaries.http://library.soa.org/files/pdf/Cox%20Linn%20paper%2011-15-06.pdf.
[9]Dar,A.,and C.Dodds,1989,“Interest Rates,the Emergency Fund Hypothesis and Saving Through Endowment Policies:Some Empirical Evidence for the U.K”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,56(3),415-433.
[10]Kagraoka,Y.,2005,“Modeling Insurance Surrenders by the Negative Binomial Model”,Working paper.
[11]Kiesenbauer,D.,2012,“Main Determinants of Lapse in the German Life Insurance Industry”,North American Actuarial Journal,16(1),52-73.
[12]Kim,C.,2005b,“Report to the Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Subgroups Project”,Society of Actuaries.http://library.soa.org/files/pdf/Cox%20Linn%20paper%2011-15-06.pdf.
[13]Kim,C.,2005a,“Modeling Surrender and Lapse Rates with Economic Variables”,North American Actuarial Journal,9(4),56-70.
[14]Yong Li Gail A.Jensen,2012.Why Do People Let Their Long-term Care Insurance Lapse?Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,Volume 34,Issue 2,1 June2012,Pages 220-237.https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/pps017
[15]Kuo,W.,C.Tsai,and W.-K.Chen,2003,“An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate:The Cointegration Approach”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,70(3),489-508.
[16]Martin Eling,Dieter Kiesenbauer,2013,“What Policy Features Determine Life Insurance Lapse?An Answer of the German Market”,the Journal of Risk and Insurance,81(2),241-269.
[17]Miles,I.,2008.Knowledge-intensive services.Manchester Institute for Innovation Research,Manchester Business School,University of Manchester,UK.
[18]Milhaud,X.,S.Loisel,and V.Maume-Deschamps,2010,“Surrender Triggers in Life Insurance:Classification and Risk Predictions”,Working paper.
[19]Outreville,J.F.,1990,“Whole-life Insurance Lapse Rates and the Emergency Fund Hypothesis”,Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,9(4),249-255.
[20]Pinquet,J.,M.Guill'en,and M.Ayuso,2011,“Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long-Term Insurance:A Case Study”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,78(4),983-1002.
[21]Renshaw,A.E.,and S.Haberman,1986,“Statistical Analysis of Life Assurance Lapses”,Journal of the Institute of Actuaries,113,pp:459-497.
[22]Rothschild,M.and J.Stiglitz,1976,“Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,90,629-649.
[23]Sparks,J.R.(1995).Professional ethical sensitivity:The case of marketing researchers(Doctorial dissertation,Texas Tech University,Texas).Retrieved from https://ttu-ir.tdl.org/ttuir/bitstream/handle/2346/9975/31295009266031.pdf?sequence=1&is Allowed=y
[24]Zhang,N.,J.Zhang,and J.Wang.2017.“Empathy as moderator of gender differences in Chinese insurance agents'business ethical sensitivity.”Social Behavior and Personality 45(6):1029-42.https://doi.org/10.2224/sbp.6155.
[25]Zhang,Na,and Jian Zhang.2016.“Chinese insurance agents in‘bad barrels':a multilevel analysis of the relationship between ethical leadership,ethical climate and business ethical sensitivity.”Springer Plus 5(1).Nature Publishing Group:2078.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-3764-2.
(1)退保理论的后三个理论(IRH,PRH,PDH)从本质上来说描述了保险产品与其他商品的一种竞争或者替代关系,因此本文将之归总为“商品替代”理论。
(1)在稍早时期,我们发现只有Renshaw&Haberman(1986)针对苏格兰寿险市场的研究。作者获得了超过75万张保单数据,使用logistic模型以及Binormial模型分析了5类产品的退保率问题。但是,这一开创性的研究并未得以延续,直至2000年以后,随着会计以及寿险监管制度的变化要求对退保做恰当的评估,这方面的研究才引起各方关注。
(1)列(1)中基准组是销售人员学历低于或相等于投保人学历,列(2)中的基准组为销售人员学历高于或等于投保人学历,列(3)中基准组为销售人员学历低于投保人学历。
[2]展凯.中国寿险市场退保影响因素的实证分析[J]当代经济科学,2008,(4):93-98.
[3]孙蓉、张宗军.寿险业退保行为及其影响因素实证研究[J].保险研究,2012,(8):39-45.
[4]王向楠.中国寿险产品退保的实证研究:基于险种分类视角[J].广东金融学院学报,2012(6):104-113.
[5]展凯,陈华.我国寿险保单退保影响因素的实证研究---基于公司层面的微观数据[J].保险研究,2013(6):59-67
[6]Babbel D.F.,1979,“Measuring inflation impact on life insurance costs”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,46,316-342.
[7]Cerchiara,R.R.,A.Gambini and M.Edwards,2009,“Generalized Linear Models in Life Insurance-Decrements and Risk factor analysis under Solvency II”,Giornale dell stituto Italiano degli Attuari,72,100-122.
[8]Cox,S.H.,and Y.Lin,2006,“Annuity Lapse Rate Modeling:Tobit or Not Tobit?”Society of Actuaries.http://library.soa.org/files/pdf/Cox%20Linn%20paper%2011-15-06.pdf.
[9]Dar,A.,and C.Dodds,1989,“Interest Rates,the Emergency Fund Hypothesis and Saving Through Endowment Policies:Some Empirical Evidence for the U.K”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,56(3),415-433.
[10]Kagraoka,Y.,2005,“Modeling Insurance Surrenders by the Negative Binomial Model”,Working paper.
[11]Kiesenbauer,D.,2012,“Main Determinants of Lapse in the German Life Insurance Industry”,North American Actuarial Journal,16(1),52-73.
[12]Kim,C.,2005b,“Report to the Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Subgroups Project”,Society of Actuaries.http://library.soa.org/files/pdf/Cox%20Linn%20paper%2011-15-06.pdf.
[13]Kim,C.,2005a,“Modeling Surrender and Lapse Rates with Economic Variables”,North American Actuarial Journal,9(4),56-70.
[14]Yong Li Gail A.Jensen,2012.Why Do People Let Their Long-term Care Insurance Lapse?Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,Volume 34,Issue 2,1 June2012,Pages 220-237.https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/pps017
[15]Kuo,W.,C.Tsai,and W.-K.Chen,2003,“An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate:The Cointegration Approach”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,70(3),489-508.
[16]Martin Eling,Dieter Kiesenbauer,2013,“What Policy Features Determine Life Insurance Lapse?An Answer of the German Market”,the Journal of Risk and Insurance,81(2),241-269.
[17]Miles,I.,2008.Knowledge-intensive services.Manchester Institute for Innovation Research,Manchester Business School,University of Manchester,UK.
[18]Milhaud,X.,S.Loisel,and V.Maume-Deschamps,2010,“Surrender Triggers in Life Insurance:Classification and Risk Predictions”,Working paper.
[19]Outreville,J.F.,1990,“Whole-life Insurance Lapse Rates and the Emergency Fund Hypothesis”,Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,9(4),249-255.
[20]Pinquet,J.,M.Guill'en,and M.Ayuso,2011,“Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long-Term Insurance:A Case Study”,Journal of Risk and Insurance,78(4),983-1002.
[21]Renshaw,A.E.,and S.Haberman,1986,“Statistical Analysis of Life Assurance Lapses”,Journal of the Institute of Actuaries,113,pp:459-497.
[22]Rothschild,M.and J.Stiglitz,1976,“Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,90,629-649.
[23]Sparks,J.R.(1995).Professional ethical sensitivity:The case of marketing researchers(Doctorial dissertation,Texas Tech University,Texas).Retrieved from https://ttu-ir.tdl.org/ttuir/bitstream/handle/2346/9975/31295009266031.pdf?sequence=1&is Allowed=y
[24]Zhang,N.,J.Zhang,and J.Wang.2017.“Empathy as moderator of gender differences in Chinese insurance agents'business ethical sensitivity.”Social Behavior and Personality 45(6):1029-42.https://doi.org/10.2224/sbp.6155.
[25]Zhang,Na,and Jian Zhang.2016.“Chinese insurance agents in‘bad barrels':a multilevel analysis of the relationship between ethical leadership,ethical climate and business ethical sensitivity.”Springer Plus 5(1).Nature Publishing Group:2078.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-3764-2.
(1)退保理论的后三个理论(IRH,PRH,PDH)从本质上来说描述了保险产品与其他商品的一种竞争或者替代关系,因此本文将之归总为“商品替代”理论。
(1)在稍早时期,我们发现只有Renshaw&Haberman(1986)针对苏格兰寿险市场的研究。作者获得了超过75万张保单数据,使用logistic模型以及Binormial模型分析了5类产品的退保率问题。但是,这一开创性的研究并未得以延续,直至2000年以后,随着会计以及寿险监管制度的变化要求对退保做恰当的评估,这方面的研究才引起各方关注。
(1)列(1)中基准组是销售人员学历低于或相等于投保人学历,列(2)中的基准组为销售人员学历高于或等于投保人学历,列(3)中基准组为销售人员学历低于投保人学历。