居民收入的增长促进寿险需求了吗
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摘要
本文将人寿保险区分为保障型和投资型两类异质产品,梳理并总结出收入对异质寿险需求的三个理论。通过对中国省区2002—2013年面板数据的研究发现:东部地区的保障型寿险收入需求弹性为正,支持"生命价值理论";中部和西部地区的收入需求弹性为负,支持"合约替代理论"。就投资型寿险而言,中西部地区的收入弹性均为正数,支持"财富分配理论",但东部地区收入影响不显著。本研究的政策含义在于,通过收入政策促进地区寿险发展既需要考虑险种差异,也需要考虑地区差异。
Based on the classification of traditional life insurance and investment life insurance,this paper proposes three theory hypotheses- Contract Substitution Theory( CST),Life Value Theory( LVT) and Wealth Distribution Theory( WDT). With China's panel data in 2002- 2013,it is found out that traditional life insurance demand elasticity with respect to income in East is positive,in favor of LVT,while the elasticity in the Middle and West area is negative in support of CST. For investment life insurance,the elasticity is positive in the Middle and West area as well as in the whole country,while it is not dramatic statistically in the East area. The policy implication of this paper is that we have to consider not only the classification of life insurance but also regional differences when applying income policies to promote the development of life insurance.
Based on the classification of traditional life insurance and investment life insurance,this paper proposes three theory hypotheses- Contract Substitution Theory( CST),Life Value Theory( LVT) and Wealth Distribution Theory( WDT). With China's panel data in 2002- 2013,it is found out that traditional life insurance demand elasticity with respect to income in East is positive,in favor of LVT,while the elasticity in the Middle and West area is negative in support of CST. For investment life insurance,the elasticity is positive in the Middle and West area as well as in the whole country,while it is not dramatic statistically in the East area. The policy implication of this paper is that we have to consider not only the classification of life insurance but also regional differences when applying income policies to promote the development of life insurance.
引文
[1]Mossin,J.,1968,Aspect s of Rational Insurance Purchasing[J].Journal of Political Economy,76(4):553-568.
[2]朱文革.连续时间模型下的寿险需求和中国寿险市场的相关实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2006(2):939-952.
[3]Campbell,R.A.,1980,The Demand for Life Insurance:An Application of the Economics of Uncertainty[J].Journal of Finance,35:1155-1172.
[4]Chen,P.,Ibbotson,R.,Milevsky,M.A.and Zhu,K.,2005,Human Capital,Asset Allocation and Life Insurance[J].Financial Analysts Journal,62:97-109.
[5]Lewis,F.D.,1989,Dependents and the Demand for Life Insurance[J].American Economic Review,79:452-466.
[6]Truett,D.B,and L.J.Truett,1990,The Demand for Life Insurance in Mexico and the United States:A Comparative Study[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,57:321-28.
[7]Donghui Li,Fariborz Moshirian,Pascal Nguyen,Timothy Wee,2007,The demand for life insurance in OECD countries[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,74(3):637-652.
[8]孙祁祥,贲奔.中国保险产业发展的供需规模分析[J].经济研究,1997(3):55-61.
[9]卓志.我国人寿保险需求的实证分析[J].保险研究,2001(5):10-12.
[10]吴江鸣,林宝清.我国保险需求模型的实证分析[J].福建论坛:经济社会版,2003(10):26-30.
[11]梁来存.我国寿险需求的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(8):80-89.
[12]钟春平,陈静,孙焕民.寿险需求及其影响因素研究:中国寿险需求为何低?[J].经济研究,2012(S1):148-160.
[13]Mantis,G.,and R.Farmer,1968,Demand for Life Insurance[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,35:247-256.
[14]Duker,J.M.,1969,Expenditures for Life Insurance Among Working-Wife Families[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,36:525-533.
[15]Berekson,L.L.,1972,Birth Order,Anxiety,Affiliation and the Purchase of Life Insurance[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,39:93-108.
[16]Ferber,R.,and L.C.Lee,1980,Acquisition and Accumulation of Life Insurance in Early Married Life[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,47:713-734.
[17]Gandolfi,A.S.,and L.Miners,1996,Gender-Based Differences in Life Insurance Ownership[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,63:683-693.
[18]完颜瑞云,陈滔.文化因素影响寿险消费吗?——来自中国大陆地区的证据[J].上海财经大学,2013(4):57-64.
[19]王向楠,张立明.样本构成、研究设计与寿险需求的影响因素——基于Meta回归的再分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2012(5):43-51.
[20]朱铭来,房予铮.基于投资视角的我国寿险需求实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2008(5):80-95.
[21]王向楠,徐舒.人寿保险需求的结构性差异:保障和投资[J].金融评论,2012(4):66-74,124.
[22]王立新,吴良刚.基于金融资产组合视角的投资型寿险需求研究[J].江西财经大学学报,2014(1):82-89.
[23]Outreville,J.Francois,1990,“Whole-Life Insurance Lapse Rates and the Emergency Fund Hypothesis,”Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,9:249-255.
[2]朱文革.连续时间模型下的寿险需求和中国寿险市场的相关实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2006(2):939-952.
[3]Campbell,R.A.,1980,The Demand for Life Insurance:An Application of the Economics of Uncertainty[J].Journal of Finance,35:1155-1172.
[4]Chen,P.,Ibbotson,R.,Milevsky,M.A.and Zhu,K.,2005,Human Capital,Asset Allocation and Life Insurance[J].Financial Analysts Journal,62:97-109.
[5]Lewis,F.D.,1989,Dependents and the Demand for Life Insurance[J].American Economic Review,79:452-466.
[6]Truett,D.B,and L.J.Truett,1990,The Demand for Life Insurance in Mexico and the United States:A Comparative Study[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,57:321-28.
[7]Donghui Li,Fariborz Moshirian,Pascal Nguyen,Timothy Wee,2007,The demand for life insurance in OECD countries[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,74(3):637-652.
[8]孙祁祥,贲奔.中国保险产业发展的供需规模分析[J].经济研究,1997(3):55-61.
[9]卓志.我国人寿保险需求的实证分析[J].保险研究,2001(5):10-12.
[10]吴江鸣,林宝清.我国保险需求模型的实证分析[J].福建论坛:经济社会版,2003(10):26-30.
[11]梁来存.我国寿险需求的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(8):80-89.
[12]钟春平,陈静,孙焕民.寿险需求及其影响因素研究:中国寿险需求为何低?[J].经济研究,2012(S1):148-160.
[13]Mantis,G.,and R.Farmer,1968,Demand for Life Insurance[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,35:247-256.
[14]Duker,J.M.,1969,Expenditures for Life Insurance Among Working-Wife Families[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,36:525-533.
[15]Berekson,L.L.,1972,Birth Order,Anxiety,Affiliation and the Purchase of Life Insurance[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,39:93-108.
[16]Ferber,R.,and L.C.Lee,1980,Acquisition and Accumulation of Life Insurance in Early Married Life[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,47:713-734.
[17]Gandolfi,A.S.,and L.Miners,1996,Gender-Based Differences in Life Insurance Ownership[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,63:683-693.
[18]完颜瑞云,陈滔.文化因素影响寿险消费吗?——来自中国大陆地区的证据[J].上海财经大学,2013(4):57-64.
[19]王向楠,张立明.样本构成、研究设计与寿险需求的影响因素——基于Meta回归的再分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2012(5):43-51.
[20]朱铭来,房予铮.基于投资视角的我国寿险需求实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2008(5):80-95.
[21]王向楠,徐舒.人寿保险需求的结构性差异:保障和投资[J].金融评论,2012(4):66-74,124.
[22]王立新,吴良刚.基于金融资产组合视角的投资型寿险需求研究[J].江西财经大学学报,2014(1):82-89.
[23]Outreville,J.Francois,1990,“Whole-Life Insurance Lapse Rates and the Emergency Fund Hypothesis,”Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,9:249-255.