基于超阈值取样的中国不同重现期降雨强度空间分异特征及强降雨变化模态(1961～2016年)
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摘要
不同重现期下的降雨强度对于城市防洪减灾具有重要科学和现实意义。利用中国1961～2016年的535个日值降水站点数据,采用日降雨量的90%、95%和99%分位数阈值,对比分析不同超阈值取样下的中国不同重现期降雨强度空间分异特征和强降雨变化模态。结果表明:(1) 3种分位数降雨阈值均呈东高-西低的空间分异特征。相比绝对阈值,日降雨量的95%和99%分位数阈值用于研究大雨和暴雨是相对合理的。(2) 3种超阈值样本下的中国不同年遇型降雨强度受区域气候环境和地形条件影响,其空间演变特征具有相似性,均呈现出从东部沿海向西和向北扩张的趋势,但相同年遇型下的降雨强度空间格局在3种超阈值取样方法下差异较大。(3) EOF分析即经验正交函数分解表明在绝对阈值和相对阈值取样下的中国强降雨变化模态具有一致性,前三模态方差解释率可以达到54%以上,且第一、二和三模态的方差解释率均超过10%,分别达到约30%、14%和11%,均表征了中国年际强降雨量的不同变化规律特征,具有明显的气候物理意义。
Rainfall intensity under different return periods has important scientific and practical significance for urban flood control and disaster mitigation. In this research,using the data of 535 daily rainfall stations in China for 1961-2016 years,using the threshold value of 90%,95% and 99% quantiles of daily rainfall amounts,the spatial differentiation characteristics of rainfall intensity and the change mode of strong rainfall in different return periods of different POT are compared and analyzed. The results showed that: Firstly,the three thresholds of rainfall amounts above were characterized by spatial differentiation from east to west. Compared with the absolute threshold,the 95% and 99% quantile thresholds of daily rainfall amounts are relatively reasonable for heavy rainfall and storm rainfall. Secondly,the different return period of rainfall intensity in China under three kinds of POT was influenced by regional climate and terrain conditions,and its spatial evolution features are similar,all of which showed a tendency to expand from the east coast regions to the west and north regions,but the spatial pattern of rainfall intensity under the same return period was very different under the three POT methods. Thirdly,EOF analysis showed that the variation modes of strong rainfall in China under absolute threshold and relative threshold are consistent,the variance interpretation rate of the first three modes can reach more than 54%,and the explanatory rates of the variance of the first,second and three mode are more than 10%,reaching about30%,14% and 11% respectively,which all represent the different variation features of annual strong rainfall in China. It has obvious climatic and physical significance.
Rainfall intensity under different return periods has important scientific and practical significance for urban flood control and disaster mitigation. In this research,using the data of 535 daily rainfall stations in China for 1961-2016 years,using the threshold value of 90%,95% and 99% quantiles of daily rainfall amounts,the spatial differentiation characteristics of rainfall intensity and the change mode of strong rainfall in different return periods of different POT are compared and analyzed. The results showed that: Firstly,the three thresholds of rainfall amounts above were characterized by spatial differentiation from east to west. Compared with the absolute threshold,the 95% and 99% quantile thresholds of daily rainfall amounts are relatively reasonable for heavy rainfall and storm rainfall. Secondly,the different return period of rainfall intensity in China under three kinds of POT was influenced by regional climate and terrain conditions,and its spatial evolution features are similar,all of which showed a tendency to expand from the east coast regions to the west and north regions,but the spatial pattern of rainfall intensity under the same return period was very different under the three POT methods. Thirdly,EOF analysis showed that the variation modes of strong rainfall in China under absolute threshold and relative threshold are consistent,the variance interpretation rate of the first three modes can reach more than 54%,and the explanatory rates of the variance of the first,second and three mode are more than 10%,reaching about30%,14% and 11% respectively,which all represent the different variation features of annual strong rainfall in China. It has obvious climatic and physical significance.
引文
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[4]史培军,孔锋,方佳毅.中国年代际暴雨时空变化格局[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1281-1290.SHI P J,KONG F,FANG J Y. Spatio-temporal patterns of China decadal storm rainfall[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(11):1281-1290.
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[8] LI J,YU R,ZHOU T. Seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall in southern contiguous China[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(22):277-87.
[9] HUANG W R,CHAN J C L. Seasonal variation of diurnal and semidiurnal rainfall over Southeast China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012,39(7):1913-1927.
[10] LI Z,SONG M,FENG H,et al. Within-season yield prediction with different nitrogen inputs under rain-fed condition using CERES-Wheat model in the northwest of China[J]. Journal of the Science of Food&Agriculture,2016,96(8):2906-2916.
[11] JEGANATHAN A,ANDIMUTHU R. Long-term rainfall trends of Indian urban station and its variation in different phases and seasons[J]. International Journal of Global Warming,2015,7(3):307-321.
[12] HUANG J,WANG Y,GAO L,et al. Temporal-spatial characteristics of different rainfall levels in Fujian Province from 1960to 2011[J]. Science of Soil&Water Conservation,2015,13(2):17-23.
[13] SONG Y,ACHBERGER C,LINDERHOLM H W. Rain-season trends in precipitation and its’effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2011,6(3):329-346.
[14]孔锋,史培军,方建,等.全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):165-174.KONG F,SHI P J,FANG J,et al. Research progress and Prospect of the change of the spatial and temporal pattern of extreme precipitation and its influencing factors under the background of global change[J]. Journal of Disaster Science,2017,32(2):165-174.
[15] ZOU Y C,YANG X Q,SUN J P,et al. Seasonal difference of the spatio-temporal variation of the number of the extreme precipitation processes in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University,2009,45(1):98-109.
[16]吴凯,杨修群.中国东部城市化与地面非均匀增暖[J].科学通报,2013,58(8):642-652.WU K,YANG X Q. Urbanization in eastern China and uneven warming of the surface[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(8):642-652.
[17]孔锋,吕丽莉,方建. 1991-2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(3):355-364.KONG F,LV L L,FANG J. Spatio-temporal variation pattern of1991-2010 years’rainstorm in China and its spatial correlation with urbanization factors[J]. Climate and Environment,2017,22(3):355-364.
[18]孔锋,史培军,方建,等.典型国家和地区的暴雨变化及其与城镇化因子关系的初探-以美国、欧洲、中国、巴西和印度为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(10):90-97KONG F,SHI P J,FANG J,et al. Rainstorm changes in typical countries and regions and their relationship with urbanization factors:A case study of the United States,Europe,China,Brazil and India[J]. Resources and Environment in Arid Areas,2017,31(10):90-97.
[19]史培军,孔锋. 1951~2010年中国年代际累积暴雨时空格局变化的相关因素研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(10):1457-1465.SHI P J,KONG F. Study on related factors of temporal spatial pattern change of decadal accumulative heavy rainfall in China from 1951 to 2010[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(10):1457-1465.
[20]刘志雨.气候变化对南方典型洪涝灾害高风险区防洪安全影响及适应对策[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.LIU Z Y. Impacts of climate change on flood control safety in high risk areas of typical flood disasters in southern China and adaptive Countermeasures[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2016.
[21]肖潺,叶殿秀,陈昊明.中国大陆雨涝时空特征[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):85-89.XIAO C,YE D X,CHEN H M. Spatial and temporal characteristics of flood in China Mainland[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):85-89.
[22]夏军,石卫,张利平,等.气候变化对防洪安全影响研究面临的机遇与挑战[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2016,48(2):7-13.XIA J,SHI W,ZHANG L P,et al. Opportunities and challenges of climate change impacts on flood control security[J]. Journal of Sichuan University(Engineering Science Edition),2016,48(2):7-13.
[23] FU G,BUTLER D. Copula-based frequency analysis of overflow and flooding in urban drainage systems[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2014,510(3):49-58.
[24] JIANG W,DENG L,CHEN L,et al. Risk assessment and validation of flood disaster Based on fuzzy mathematics[J]. Progress in Natural Science,2009,19(10):1419-1425.
[25]郭忆,毕硕本,张余庆,等.地理地形因子对长江中下游平原降水空间分布影响的估算和分析[J].科学技术与工程,2013,13(29):8555-8560.GUO Y,BI S B,ZHANG Y Q,et al. Estimation and analysis of the influence of geographical and topographic factors on the spatial distribution of precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2013,13(29):8555-8560.
[26]张正涛,高超,刘青,等.不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理研究,2014,33(7):1361-1372.ZHANG Z T,GAO C,LIU Q,et al. Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Huaihe River Basin under different return periods[J]. Geographical Research,2014,33(7):1361-1372.
[27]姜仁贵,韩浩,解建仓,等.变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝研究进展[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(3):11-17.JIANG R G,HAN H,XIE J C,et al. Research progress of urban rainstorm and flood in changing environment[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(3):11-17.
[28]罗艳艳,何金海,邹燕,等.华南前汛期雨涝强、弱年的确定及其环流特征对比[J].气象科学,2015,35(2):160-166.LUO Y Y,HE J H,ZOU Y,et al. Comparison of determination and its circulation characteristics before the flood waterlogging in Southern China strong and weak years[J]. Scientia Meteorological Sinica,2015,35(2):160-166.
[29]孔锋,方建,吕丽莉,等. 1961-2015年中国不同强度降雨的变化趋势和波动特征[J].热带地理,2017,37(4):473-483.KONG F,FANG J,LV L L,et al. Variation trend and fluctuation characteristics of different intensity rainfall in China in the past 1961-2015 years[J]. Tropical Geography,2017,37(4):473-483.
[30]孔锋,吕丽莉,方建,等.基于日值和小时降水数据诊断中国暴雨时空变化差异的研究(1991-2010)[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):72-79.KONG F,LV L L,FANG J,et al. Study on the temporal and spatial variation of heavy rainfall in China based on daily and hourly precipitation data from 1991 to 2010[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):72-79.
[31]孔锋,刘凡,王一飞,等.中国气候变化与水灾发生频次的时空关系研究(1961-2010)[J].灾害学,2017,32(4):33-40.KONG F,LIU F,WANG Y F,et al. Study on the spatio-temporal relationship between climate change and flood frequency in China(1961-2010)[J]. Journal of Disaster Science,2017,32(4):33-40.
[32]鲍名,黄荣辉.近40年我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1057-1067.BAO M, HUANG R H. Annual variation characteristics of heavy rainfall in China during the last 40 years[J]. Atmospheric Science,2006,30(6):1057-1067.
[33]方建,杜鹃,徐伟,等.气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(9):1085-1093.FANG J,DU J,XU W,et al. Progress on impacts of climate change on flood disasters[J]. Progress in Earth Sciences,2014,29(9):1085-1093.
[34]张振国.城市社区暴雨内涝灾害风险评估研究[D].上海:上海师范大学,2014.ZHANG Z G. Risk assessment of storm waterlogging disaster in urban communities[D]. Shanghai:Shanghai Normal University,2014.
[2] IPCC SREX. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance alimate ahange adaptation[R]. London:Cambridge University Press. 2012.
[3]张建云,王银堂,贺瑞敏,等.中国城市洪涝问题及成因分析[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):485-491.ZHANG J Y,WANG Y T,HE R M,et al. Discussion on the urban flood and waterlogging and causes analysis in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(4):485-491.
[4]史培军,孔锋,方佳毅.中国年代际暴雨时空变化格局[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1281-1290.SHI P J,KONG F,FANG J Y. Spatio-temporal patterns of China decadal storm rainfall[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(11):1281-1290.
[5] IPCC AR5. Intergovernmental panel on climate change climate change fifth assessment report(AR5)[R]. London Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,UK,2013.
[6]孔锋,王铸,刘凡,等.全球、大洲、区域尺度暴雨时空格局变化(1981-2010年)[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(2):228-234.KONG F,WANG Z,LIU F,et al. Temporal and spatial pattern changes of global,continent and regional scale heavy rainfall from 1981 to 2010[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2016,52(2):228-234.
[7] ZHOU J,ZHAO J H,HE W P,et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics and water budget of water cycle elements in different seasons in northeast China[J]. Chinese Physics B,2015,24(4):563-570.
[8] LI J,YU R,ZHOU T. Seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall in southern contiguous China[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(22):277-87.
[9] HUANG W R,CHAN J C L. Seasonal variation of diurnal and semidiurnal rainfall over Southeast China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012,39(7):1913-1927.
[10] LI Z,SONG M,FENG H,et al. Within-season yield prediction with different nitrogen inputs under rain-fed condition using CERES-Wheat model in the northwest of China[J]. Journal of the Science of Food&Agriculture,2016,96(8):2906-2916.
[11] JEGANATHAN A,ANDIMUTHU R. Long-term rainfall trends of Indian urban station and its variation in different phases and seasons[J]. International Journal of Global Warming,2015,7(3):307-321.
[12] HUANG J,WANG Y,GAO L,et al. Temporal-spatial characteristics of different rainfall levels in Fujian Province from 1960to 2011[J]. Science of Soil&Water Conservation,2015,13(2):17-23.
[13] SONG Y,ACHBERGER C,LINDERHOLM H W. Rain-season trends in precipitation and its’effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2011,6(3):329-346.
[14]孔锋,史培军,方建,等.全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):165-174.KONG F,SHI P J,FANG J,et al. Research progress and Prospect of the change of the spatial and temporal pattern of extreme precipitation and its influencing factors under the background of global change[J]. Journal of Disaster Science,2017,32(2):165-174.
[15] ZOU Y C,YANG X Q,SUN J P,et al. Seasonal difference of the spatio-temporal variation of the number of the extreme precipitation processes in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University,2009,45(1):98-109.
[16]吴凯,杨修群.中国东部城市化与地面非均匀增暖[J].科学通报,2013,58(8):642-652.WU K,YANG X Q. Urbanization in eastern China and uneven warming of the surface[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(8):642-652.
[17]孔锋,吕丽莉,方建. 1991-2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(3):355-364.KONG F,LV L L,FANG J. Spatio-temporal variation pattern of1991-2010 years’rainstorm in China and its spatial correlation with urbanization factors[J]. Climate and Environment,2017,22(3):355-364.
[18]孔锋,史培军,方建,等.典型国家和地区的暴雨变化及其与城镇化因子关系的初探-以美国、欧洲、中国、巴西和印度为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(10):90-97KONG F,SHI P J,FANG J,et al. Rainstorm changes in typical countries and regions and their relationship with urbanization factors:A case study of the United States,Europe,China,Brazil and India[J]. Resources and Environment in Arid Areas,2017,31(10):90-97.
[19]史培军,孔锋. 1951~2010年中国年代际累积暴雨时空格局变化的相关因素研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(10):1457-1465.SHI P J,KONG F. Study on related factors of temporal spatial pattern change of decadal accumulative heavy rainfall in China from 1951 to 2010[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(10):1457-1465.
[20]刘志雨.气候变化对南方典型洪涝灾害高风险区防洪安全影响及适应对策[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.LIU Z Y. Impacts of climate change on flood control safety in high risk areas of typical flood disasters in southern China and adaptive Countermeasures[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2016.
[21]肖潺,叶殿秀,陈昊明.中国大陆雨涝时空特征[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):85-89.XIAO C,YE D X,CHEN H M. Spatial and temporal characteristics of flood in China Mainland[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):85-89.
[22]夏军,石卫,张利平,等.气候变化对防洪安全影响研究面临的机遇与挑战[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2016,48(2):7-13.XIA J,SHI W,ZHANG L P,et al. Opportunities and challenges of climate change impacts on flood control security[J]. Journal of Sichuan University(Engineering Science Edition),2016,48(2):7-13.
[23] FU G,BUTLER D. Copula-based frequency analysis of overflow and flooding in urban drainage systems[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2014,510(3):49-58.
[24] JIANG W,DENG L,CHEN L,et al. Risk assessment and validation of flood disaster Based on fuzzy mathematics[J]. Progress in Natural Science,2009,19(10):1419-1425.
[25]郭忆,毕硕本,张余庆,等.地理地形因子对长江中下游平原降水空间分布影响的估算和分析[J].科学技术与工程,2013,13(29):8555-8560.GUO Y,BI S B,ZHANG Y Q,et al. Estimation and analysis of the influence of geographical and topographic factors on the spatial distribution of precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2013,13(29):8555-8560.
[26]张正涛,高超,刘青,等.不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理研究,2014,33(7):1361-1372.ZHANG Z T,GAO C,LIU Q,et al. Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Huaihe River Basin under different return periods[J]. Geographical Research,2014,33(7):1361-1372.
[27]姜仁贵,韩浩,解建仓,等.变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝研究进展[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(3):11-17.JIANG R G,HAN H,XIE J C,et al. Research progress of urban rainstorm and flood in changing environment[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(3):11-17.
[28]罗艳艳,何金海,邹燕,等.华南前汛期雨涝强、弱年的确定及其环流特征对比[J].气象科学,2015,35(2):160-166.LUO Y Y,HE J H,ZOU Y,et al. Comparison of determination and its circulation characteristics before the flood waterlogging in Southern China strong and weak years[J]. Scientia Meteorological Sinica,2015,35(2):160-166.
[29]孔锋,方建,吕丽莉,等. 1961-2015年中国不同强度降雨的变化趋势和波动特征[J].热带地理,2017,37(4):473-483.KONG F,FANG J,LV L L,et al. Variation trend and fluctuation characteristics of different intensity rainfall in China in the past 1961-2015 years[J]. Tropical Geography,2017,37(4):473-483.
[30]孔锋,吕丽莉,方建,等.基于日值和小时降水数据诊断中国暴雨时空变化差异的研究(1991-2010)[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):72-79.KONG F,LV L L,FANG J,et al. Study on the temporal and spatial variation of heavy rainfall in China based on daily and hourly precipitation data from 1991 to 2010[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):72-79.
[31]孔锋,刘凡,王一飞,等.中国气候变化与水灾发生频次的时空关系研究(1961-2010)[J].灾害学,2017,32(4):33-40.KONG F,LIU F,WANG Y F,et al. Study on the spatio-temporal relationship between climate change and flood frequency in China(1961-2010)[J]. Journal of Disaster Science,2017,32(4):33-40.
[32]鲍名,黄荣辉.近40年我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1057-1067.BAO M, HUANG R H. Annual variation characteristics of heavy rainfall in China during the last 40 years[J]. Atmospheric Science,2006,30(6):1057-1067.
[33]方建,杜鹃,徐伟,等.气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(9):1085-1093.FANG J,DU J,XU W,et al. Progress on impacts of climate change on flood disasters[J]. Progress in Earth Sciences,2014,29(9):1085-1093.
[34]张振国.城市社区暴雨内涝灾害风险评估研究[D].上海:上海师范大学,2014.ZHANG Z G. Risk assessment of storm waterlogging disaster in urban communities[D]. Shanghai:Shanghai Normal University,2014.