中国华北东北强干旱事件的时空演变特征及重现期分析
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摘要
利用中国华北、东北(110～140°E,34.5～55°N)126个站1901—2015年月尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI-1),去除11月到次年2月(即北方冬季)的数据后,利用聚类分析将研究区域分为东北地区中北部(Ⅰ区)、东北地区南部(Ⅱ区)、华北地区南部(Ⅲ区)、华北地区北部(Ⅳ区)以及华北地区西部(Ⅴ区)5个气候区,利用游程理论在识别单站强干旱事件的基础上,给出区域强干旱事件的识别标准,并与实际干旱事件相比较,检验方法的适用性;分析不同区域强干旱事件年代际的分布特征和演变规律;基于拟合优度最高的Copula函数,以华北西部(Ⅴ区)为例,分析其强干旱事件的重现规律;分析在相同重现期条件下,干旱历时与干旱强度的分布特征。结果表明:(1)区域强干旱事件的识别标准对于中国华北、东北强干旱事件具有较好的适用性。(2)华北北部(Ⅳ区)的强干旱最为严重,且较易发生连旱事件。(3)华北西部(Ⅴ区)的一般性强干旱事件有约5 a～6 a的周期,1929年、1941年和1965年分别有一次特别严重的强干旱事件发生,其重现期分别约为94 a～102 a、93 a～101 a和35 a～41 a。(4)对于2 a、5 a、10 a、20 a、50 a和100 a一遇的强干旱事件,华北北部(Ⅳ区)的强干旱事件最为严重,华北西部(Ⅴ区)次之。
In the eastern part of northwest,north China and northeast China,there is a trend of drought,and the trend of drought is the most significant in north China and the eastern part of northwest China.Especially,the drought in north China may remain a long time.Therefore,the study on severe drought events and their recurrence periods is of great importance.Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI-1) from the 126 stations in north and northeast China from 1901 to 2015 [the data from November to February(Winter in northern China) was removed],the study area was divided into 5 climatic zones based on the cluster analysis:The north-central of northeastern China(I),the southern part of northeast China(II),the southern part of north China(III),the northern part of north China(IV),and the western part of north China(V). The identification criteria of regional severe drought events were defined based on the identification of the strong drought events of a single station using run theory.The applicability of the method was verified by comparing it with the actual drought events and the distribution characteristics and evolution law of the strong drought events in different regions were analyzed.Based on the Copula function with the best fitting goodness,the western part of north China(V) was taken as an example to analyze the recurrence law of the strong drought events and the distribution characteristics of drought duration and drought severity under the same recurrence interval conditions.The results show as follows:(1) The identification criteria of regional strong drought events demonstrated good applicability to the strong drought events in NC and the identified major drought events outside the Drought Disaster Dataset enriched the drought disaster database to some extent.(2) In the 1920 s,1940 s and 1960 s,strong drought events tended to increase,and the number of droughts was increased significantly in the 21~(st) century.The northern part of north China and the southern part of northeast China suffered from more droughts,but the northern part of north China(IV) had the strongest drought and was prone to have prolonged drought events.(3) The general strong drought event in western part of north China(V) has a recurrence period of about 5 years to 6 years.In 1929,1941 and 1965,respectively,a particularly serious drought occurred with a recurrence interval being about 94 years to 102 years,93 years to 101 years and 35 years to 41 years respectively.The Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period shows that serious drought did occur in these three years,this further proved the reliability of the identification criteria.(4) For the strong drought events with a recurrence period of 2 years,5 years,10 years,20 years,50 years and 100 years respectively,all the strong drought events were most serious in the northern part of north China(IV),followed by those in the western part of north China(V).This paper can provide theoretical basis and reference for further understanding of major drought events in northern China.
In the eastern part of northwest,north China and northeast China,there is a trend of drought,and the trend of drought is the most significant in north China and the eastern part of northwest China.Especially,the drought in north China may remain a long time.Therefore,the study on severe drought events and their recurrence periods is of great importance.Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI-1) from the 126 stations in north and northeast China from 1901 to 2015 [the data from November to February(Winter in northern China) was removed],the study area was divided into 5 climatic zones based on the cluster analysis:The north-central of northeastern China(I),the southern part of northeast China(II),the southern part of north China(III),the northern part of north China(IV),and the western part of north China(V). The identification criteria of regional severe drought events were defined based on the identification of the strong drought events of a single station using run theory.The applicability of the method was verified by comparing it with the actual drought events and the distribution characteristics and evolution law of the strong drought events in different regions were analyzed.Based on the Copula function with the best fitting goodness,the western part of north China(V) was taken as an example to analyze the recurrence law of the strong drought events and the distribution characteristics of drought duration and drought severity under the same recurrence interval conditions.The results show as follows:(1) The identification criteria of regional strong drought events demonstrated good applicability to the strong drought events in NC and the identified major drought events outside the Drought Disaster Dataset enriched the drought disaster database to some extent.(2) In the 1920 s,1940 s and 1960 s,strong drought events tended to increase,and the number of droughts was increased significantly in the 21~(st) century.The northern part of north China and the southern part of northeast China suffered from more droughts,but the northern part of north China(IV) had the strongest drought and was prone to have prolonged drought events.(3) The general strong drought event in western part of north China(V) has a recurrence period of about 5 years to 6 years.In 1929,1941 and 1965,respectively,a particularly serious drought occurred with a recurrence interval being about 94 years to 102 years,93 years to 101 years and 35 years to 41 years respectively.The Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period shows that serious drought did occur in these three years,this further proved the reliability of the identification criteria.(4) For the strong drought events with a recurrence period of 2 years,5 years,10 years,20 years,50 years and 100 years respectively,all the strong drought events were most serious in the northern part of north China(IV),followed by those in the western part of north China(V).This paper can provide theoretical basis and reference for further understanding of major drought events in northern China.
引文
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[2] 薛海丽,张钦,唐海萍.近60 a内蒙古不同草原类型区极端气温和干旱事件特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(4):701-710.[XUE Haili,ZHANG Qin,TANG Haiping.Extreme temperature and drought events in four different grassland areas of Inner Mongoliain in recent 60 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2018,41(4):701-710.]
[3] 王文,王劲廷.1951—2009年中国地表湿润状况变化趋势研究[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(5):1-6.[WANG Wen,WANG Jinting.Variation trend of surface humid index in China from 1951 to 2009[J].Journal of Meteorology and Enviroment,2011,27(5):1-6.]
[4] 胡实,莫兴国,林忠辉.未来气候情景下我国北方地区干旱时空变化趋势[J].干旱区地理,2015,2(38):239-248.[HU Shi,MO Xingguo,LIN Zhonghui.Projections of spatial-temporal variation of drought in north China[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,2(38):239-248.]
[5] 余卫红,方修琦.近50年我国北方地区旱涝的时空变化[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2001,37(6):838-842.[YU Weihong,FANG Xiuqi.The temporal and spatial change of drougjt-flood in northern China foe the last 50 years[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science),2001,37(6):838-842.]
[6] 符淙斌,安芷生,郭维栋.我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(11):1157-1167.[FU Congbin,AN Zhisheng,GUO Weidong.Evolution of life-supporting environment in our nation and the predicitive study of aridification in Northern China(Ⅰ):Main scientific issues and achievements[J].Advances in Earth Science,2005,20(11):1157-1167.]
[7] 马柱国,符淙斌.1951—2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实[J].科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.[MA Zhuguo,FU Congbin.Basic facts of aridification in northern China from 1951—2004[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(20):2429-2439.]
[8] 罗健,郝振纯.我国北方干旱的时空分布特征分析[J].河海大学学报,2001,29(4):61-66.[LUO Jian,HAO Zhenchun.Study on characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of drought in north China[J].Journal of Hohai University,2001,29(4):61-66.]
[9] 张耀宗,张勃,刘艳艳,等.1960—2012年宁夏强干旱时空格局及影响因素分析[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):120-127.[ZHANG Yaozong,ZHANG Bo,LIU Yanyan,et al.Spatial and temporal pattern of strong drought and its influence factors in Ningxia from 1960—2012[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(1):120-127.]
[10] 马明卫.Meta-elliptical copulas函数在干旱分析中的应用研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2011.[MA Mingwei.Drought characteristics analysis using Meta-elliptical Copulas[D].Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2011.]
[11] 张雨,宋松柏.Copulas函数在多变量干旱联合分布中的应用[J].灌溉排水学报,2010,29(3):64-68.[ZHANG Yu,SONG Songbai.Application of archimedean Copulas in multi-variable drought distribution[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2010,29(3):64-68.]
[12] 于艺,宋松柏,马明卫.Archimedean族Copulas函数在多变量干旱特征分析中的应用[J].水文,2011,31(2):6-10.[YU Yi,SONG Songbai,MA Mingwei.Archimedean Copulas for drought characteristics analysis[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2011,31(2):6-10.]
[13] 陆桂华,闫桂霞,吴志勇,等.基于Copula函数的区域干旱分析方法[J].水文科学进展,2010,21(2):188-193.[LU Guihua,YAN Guixia,WU Zhiyong,et al.Regional drought analysis approach based on Copula function[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(2):188-193.]
[14] 蒋慧敏,刘春云,贾健,等.乌鲁木齐地区夏季气象干旱的变化特征及成因分析[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(4):693-700.[JIANG Huimin,LIU Chunyun,JIA Jian,et al.Characteristics and causes of meteorological drought in summer in Urumqi[J].Arid Land Geography,2018,41(4):693-700.]
[15] 林盛吉.基于统计降尺度模型的钱塘江流域干旱预测和评估[D].杭州:浙江大学,2011.[LIN Shengji.Drought analysis using statistical downscaling models in Qiantang River Basin[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2011.]
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