近63 a安康地区降水与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析
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摘要
依据安康气象局安康站1953—2015年逐日降水量和太阳黑子逐年相对数,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,对安康地区近63 a降水变化特征及其与太阳黑子相对数关系进行了分析。结果显示:近63 a安康地区年降水量以及夏季降水整体呈增加趋势,增加量分别为0.99 mm·a~(-1)、1.65 mm·a~(-1),春季、秋季和冬季降水整体呈下降趋势,减少量分别为0.26 mm·a~(-1)、0.35 mm·a~(-1)、0.06 mm·a~(-1),降水集中分布在夏季和秋季。年降水距平极值与太阳黑子相对数峰谷值主要存在0~3 a滞后;近63 a安康地区年降水有显著3 a和28 a的变化周期,与太阳黑子相对数的9 a变化周期存在一定差异。
In this study,the Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to lucubrate the variation of precipitation and its relationship with the relative number of sunspots in the Ankang region in recent 63 years based on the data of relative annual number of sunspots and daily precipitation observed by Ankang Meteorological Station,Ankang Meteorological Bureau during the period of 1953-2015.The results showed that,in the Ankang region,the annual and summer precipitations were significantly increased with increments of 0.99 mm·a~(-1)and1.65 mm·a~(-1)respectively.The spring,autumn and winter precipitations were decreased slightly with reductions of 0.26 mm·a~(-1),0.35 mm·a~(-1)and 0.06 mm·a~(-1)respectively.Precipitation occurred mainly in summer and autumn.There was a 0-3 a time lag of the anomaly of extreme precipitation than the occurrence of peak-valley value of relative sunspot number.There were the significant 3 a and 28 a variation periods of annual precipitation in the Ankang region,which was different from the 9 year variation period of relative sunspot number.
In this study,the Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to lucubrate the variation of precipitation and its relationship with the relative number of sunspots in the Ankang region in recent 63 years based on the data of relative annual number of sunspots and daily precipitation observed by Ankang Meteorological Station,Ankang Meteorological Bureau during the period of 1953-2015.The results showed that,in the Ankang region,the annual and summer precipitations were significantly increased with increments of 0.99 mm·a~(-1)and1.65 mm·a~(-1)respectively.The spring,autumn and winter precipitations were decreased slightly with reductions of 0.26 mm·a~(-1),0.35 mm·a~(-1)and 0.06 mm·a~(-1)respectively.Precipitation occurred mainly in summer and autumn.There was a 0-3 a time lag of the anomaly of extreme precipitation than the occurrence of peak-valley value of relative sunspot number.There were the significant 3 a and 28 a variation periods of annual precipitation in the Ankang region,which was different from the 9 year variation period of relative sunspot number.
引文
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[12]Neff U,Burns S J,Mangini A,et al. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago[J].Nature,2001,411(6 835):290-293.
[13]Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q. The possible influence of solar activity on Indian summer monsoon rainfall[J]. Applied Geophysics,2007,4(3):231-237.
[14]Zhang P,Cheng H,Edwards R L,et al. A test of climate,sun,and culture relationships from an 1 810-year Chinese cave record[J].Science,2008,322(5 903):940-942.
[15]Bal S,Bose M. A climatological study of the relations among solar activity,galactic cosmic ray and precipitation on various regions over the globe[J]. Earth and Environmental Science,2010,119(2):201-209.
[16] Wang Jingsong,Zhao Liang. Statistical tests for a correlation between decadal variation in June precipitation in China and sunspot number[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2012,117(23):1-10.
[17]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.近54年来辽西北地区降水与太阳黑子关系研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):1 027-1 032.[Cao Yongqiang,Liu Jiajia,Gao Lu. Relationship between sunspots and precipitation in Northwestern Liaoning in recent 54 years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(8):1 027-1 032.]
[18]张肖南,史兴民,杨尚英.西安夏、秋季降水与太阳黑子的关系[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(3):485-490.[Zhang Xiaonan,Shi Xingmin,Yang Shangying. Relationship between number of sunspots and rainfall in Xi'an in summer and autumn[J]. Arid Zone Research,2013,30(3):485-490.]
[19]马晓刚,李凝,张旭,等.阜新夏季异常降水在太阳活动周期的规律研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):107-111.[Ma Xiaogang,Li Ning,Zhang Xu,et al. Research on the law of summer anomalous precipitation in Fuxin in the Solar cycle[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(3):107-111.]
[20]付建新,曹广超,李玲琴,等. 1960—2014年祁连山中东段及其附近地区气温时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(3):549-561.[Fu Jianxin,Cao Guangchao,Li Lingqin,et al. Spatiotemporal variation of air temperature in the middle and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains and the nearby regions during the period of 1960-2014[J]. Arid Zone Research,2018,35(3):549-561.]
[21]李佳秀,杜春丽,杜世飞,等.新疆极端降水事件的时空变化及趋势预测[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(6):1 103-1 112.[Li Jiaxiu,Du Chunli,Du Shifei,et al. Temporal-spatial variation and trend prediction of extreme precipitation events in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(6):1 103-1 112.]
[22]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.近50年陕南地区降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):14-19,25.[Li Bin,Xie Jiancang,Hu Yanhua,et al. Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in south of Shaanxi Province in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2017,28(1):14-19,25.]
[23]刘维成,张强,傅朝.近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J].高原气象,2017,36(6):1 533-1 545.[Liu Weicheng,Zhang Qiang,Fu Zhao. Variation characteristics of precipitation and its affecting factors in Northwest China over the past55 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2017,36(6):1 533-1 545.]
[24]乐贵明,王家龙.太阳黑子相对数最强周期的小波分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(5):744-747.[Le Guiming,Wang Jialong. Wavelet analysis of the periods with relatively most sunspot numbers[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2004,47(5):744-747.
[25]杨若文,曹杰,黄玮,等.太阳常数与太阳黑子数关系的交叉小波分析[J].科学通报,2009,54(7):871-875.[Yang Ruowen,Cao Jie,Huang Wei,et al. Cross wavelet analysis of the relationship between total solar irradiance and sunspot number[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(7):871-875.]
[26]奚秀梅,刘海隆.塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):880-886.[Xi Xiumei,Liu Hailong. Relationship between annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and sunspots activity[J]. Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):880-886.]
[27]赵强,严华生,程路. ENSO发展和衰减阶段的陕西夏季降水异常特征[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):495-503.[Zhao Qiang,Yan Huasheng,Cheng Lu. Characteristics of Shaanxi summer precipitation anomalies in ENSO developing and decaying stages[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2013,24(4):495-503.]
[28]马利民,刘禹,安芷生.秦岭树轮记录中的ENSO事件[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2001,21(3):93-98.[Ma Limin,Liu Yu,An Zhisheng. ENSO events from tree-ring width in Qinling Mountain[J]. Marine Geology&Quaternary Geology,2001,21(3):93-98.]
[29]赵一飞,邹欣庆,张勃,等.黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1 325-1 332.[Zhao Yifei,Zou Xinqing,Zhang Bo,et al. Precipitation variation in association with climate indices in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province,Northwest China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1 325-1 332.]
[30]李志,王健,刘文兆.泾河流域气候变化及其与ENSO的关系[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(7):833-839.[Li Zhi,Wang Jian,Liu Wenzhao. Climate changes in Jinghe watershed and its relationship with ENSO[J]. Progress in Geography,2010,29(7):833-839.]
[31]Baik J J,Kim Y H,Kim J J,et al. Effects of boundary-layer stability on urban heat island-induced circulation[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2007,89(1-2):73-81.
[32]胡庆芳,张建云,王银堂,等.城市化对降水影响的研究综述[J].水科学进展,2018,29(1):138-150.[Hu Qingfang,Zhang Jianyun,Wang Yintang,et al. A review of urbanization impact on precipitation[J]. Advances in Water Science,2018,29(1):138-150.]
[2]宇峰,原志华,李文正,等. 1961—2013年黄土高原地区旱涝特征及极端和持续性分析[J].地理研究,2017,36(2):345-360.[Yu Feng,Yuan Zhihua,Li Wenzheng,et al. Extreme and persistent analysis of drought-flood variation in the Loess Plateau during 1961-2013[J]. Geographical Research,2017,36(2):345-360.]
[3]燕玉超,张福平,刘筱,等.河南省气候变化特征及其对旱涝的影响[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(3):777-786.[Yan Yuchao,Zhang Fuping,Liu Xiao,et al. Climate change and its influence on drought and flood in Henan,China[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(3):777-786.]
[4]姚俊强,杨青,毛炜峄,等.西北干旱区大气水分循环要素变化研究进展[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):269-276.[Yao Junqiang,Yang Qing,Mao Weiyi,et al. Progress of study on variation of atmospheric water cycle factors over arid region in Northwest China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2018,35(2):269-276.]
[5]李天霄,付强,孟凡香,等.黑龙江省降水变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):103-108.[Li Tianxiao,Fu Qiang,Meng Fanxiang,et al. Variation of precipitation and its impact on agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2017,36(5):103-108.]
[6]任国玉,任玉玉,战云健,等.中国大陆降水时空变异规律——Ⅱ.现代变化趋势[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):451-465.[Ren Guoyu,Ren Yuyu,Zhan Yunjian,et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China:II:Recent trends[J]. Advances in Water Science,2015,26(4):451-465.]
[7]徐新创,张学珍,戴尔阜,等. 1961—2010年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析[J].地理研究,2014,33(7):1 335-1 347.[Xu Xinchuang,Zhang Xuezhen,Dai Erfu,et al.Research of trend variability of precipitation intensity and their contribution to precipitation in China from 1961 to 2010[J]. Geographical Research,2014,33(7):1 335-1 347.]
[8]商沙沙,廉丽姝,马婷,等.近54 a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):68-76.[Shang Shasha,Lian Lishu,Ma Ting,et al. Spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Northwest China in recent 54 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):68-76.]
[9]吕俊梅,祝从文,琚建华,等.近百年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征及其原因[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):782-794.[Lv Junmei,Zhu Congwen,Ju Jianhua,et al. Interdecadal variability in summer precipitation over East China during the past 100 years and its possible causes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(4):782-794.]
[10]李双双,杨赛霓,刘宪锋. 1960—2013年秦岭—淮河南北极端降水时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3):354-363.[Li Shuangshuang,Yang Saini,Liu Xianfeng.Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region and influencing factors during1960-2013[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2015,34(3):354-363.]
[11]李芬,张建新,郝智文,等.山西降水与ENSO的相关性研究[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):420-430.[Li Fen,Zhang Jianxin,Hao Zhiwen,et al. Correlation analysis of rainfall and ENSO in Shanxi[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(3):420-430.]
[12]Neff U,Burns S J,Mangini A,et al. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago[J].Nature,2001,411(6 835):290-293.
[13]Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q. The possible influence of solar activity on Indian summer monsoon rainfall[J]. Applied Geophysics,2007,4(3):231-237.
[14]Zhang P,Cheng H,Edwards R L,et al. A test of climate,sun,and culture relationships from an 1 810-year Chinese cave record[J].Science,2008,322(5 903):940-942.
[15]Bal S,Bose M. A climatological study of the relations among solar activity,galactic cosmic ray and precipitation on various regions over the globe[J]. Earth and Environmental Science,2010,119(2):201-209.
[16] Wang Jingsong,Zhao Liang. Statistical tests for a correlation between decadal variation in June precipitation in China and sunspot number[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2012,117(23):1-10.
[17]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.近54年来辽西北地区降水与太阳黑子关系研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):1 027-1 032.[Cao Yongqiang,Liu Jiajia,Gao Lu. Relationship between sunspots and precipitation in Northwestern Liaoning in recent 54 years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(8):1 027-1 032.]
[18]张肖南,史兴民,杨尚英.西安夏、秋季降水与太阳黑子的关系[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(3):485-490.[Zhang Xiaonan,Shi Xingmin,Yang Shangying. Relationship between number of sunspots and rainfall in Xi'an in summer and autumn[J]. Arid Zone Research,2013,30(3):485-490.]
[19]马晓刚,李凝,张旭,等.阜新夏季异常降水在太阳活动周期的规律研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):107-111.[Ma Xiaogang,Li Ning,Zhang Xu,et al. Research on the law of summer anomalous precipitation in Fuxin in the Solar cycle[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(3):107-111.]
[20]付建新,曹广超,李玲琴,等. 1960—2014年祁连山中东段及其附近地区气温时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(3):549-561.[Fu Jianxin,Cao Guangchao,Li Lingqin,et al. Spatiotemporal variation of air temperature in the middle and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains and the nearby regions during the period of 1960-2014[J]. Arid Zone Research,2018,35(3):549-561.]
[21]李佳秀,杜春丽,杜世飞,等.新疆极端降水事件的时空变化及趋势预测[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(6):1 103-1 112.[Li Jiaxiu,Du Chunli,Du Shifei,et al. Temporal-spatial variation and trend prediction of extreme precipitation events in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(6):1 103-1 112.]
[22]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.近50年陕南地区降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):14-19,25.[Li Bin,Xie Jiancang,Hu Yanhua,et al. Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in south of Shaanxi Province in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2017,28(1):14-19,25.]
[23]刘维成,张强,傅朝.近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J].高原气象,2017,36(6):1 533-1 545.[Liu Weicheng,Zhang Qiang,Fu Zhao. Variation characteristics of precipitation and its affecting factors in Northwest China over the past55 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2017,36(6):1 533-1 545.]
[24]乐贵明,王家龙.太阳黑子相对数最强周期的小波分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(5):744-747.[Le Guiming,Wang Jialong. Wavelet analysis of the periods with relatively most sunspot numbers[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2004,47(5):744-747.
[25]杨若文,曹杰,黄玮,等.太阳常数与太阳黑子数关系的交叉小波分析[J].科学通报,2009,54(7):871-875.[Yang Ruowen,Cao Jie,Huang Wei,et al. Cross wavelet analysis of the relationship between total solar irradiance and sunspot number[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(7):871-875.]
[26]奚秀梅,刘海隆.塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):880-886.[Xi Xiumei,Liu Hailong. Relationship between annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and sunspots activity[J]. Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):880-886.]
[27]赵强,严华生,程路. ENSO发展和衰减阶段的陕西夏季降水异常特征[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):495-503.[Zhao Qiang,Yan Huasheng,Cheng Lu. Characteristics of Shaanxi summer precipitation anomalies in ENSO developing and decaying stages[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2013,24(4):495-503.]
[28]马利民,刘禹,安芷生.秦岭树轮记录中的ENSO事件[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2001,21(3):93-98.[Ma Limin,Liu Yu,An Zhisheng. ENSO events from tree-ring width in Qinling Mountain[J]. Marine Geology&Quaternary Geology,2001,21(3):93-98.]
[29]赵一飞,邹欣庆,张勃,等.黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1 325-1 332.[Zhao Yifei,Zou Xinqing,Zhang Bo,et al. Precipitation variation in association with climate indices in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province,Northwest China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1 325-1 332.]
[30]李志,王健,刘文兆.泾河流域气候变化及其与ENSO的关系[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(7):833-839.[Li Zhi,Wang Jian,Liu Wenzhao. Climate changes in Jinghe watershed and its relationship with ENSO[J]. Progress in Geography,2010,29(7):833-839.]
[31]Baik J J,Kim Y H,Kim J J,et al. Effects of boundary-layer stability on urban heat island-induced circulation[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2007,89(1-2):73-81.
[32]胡庆芳,张建云,王银堂,等.城市化对降水影响的研究综述[J].水科学进展,2018,29(1):138-150.[Hu Qingfang,Zhang Jianyun,Wang Yintang,et al. A review of urbanization impact on precipitation[J]. Advances in Water Science,2018,29(1):138-150.]