道路交叉口单车事故严重程度影响因素分析
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摘要
为了研究影响交叉口单车事故严重程度的因素,以英国10 258起交叉口单车碰撞事故为研究对象,构建了一种离散选择模型——多项式Logit模型,选取车辆属性、驾驶员特征、道路条件及环境等因素共25个自变量,分析轻伤事故、重伤事故以及死亡事故的影响因素。利用最大似然法估计模型参数,并通过拟合优度检验及无关独立性(IIA)检验,检验结果显示模型拟合度较好。研究结果表明:在0. 1的显著性水平下,事故是否发生在周末、事故是否发生在高峰期、路段类型、交叉口类型、交叉口控制方式、行人过街控制、光线条件、天气情况、道路表面环境、车辆类型、车辆行驶意图、侧滑、翻车情况、车道发生碰撞、非车道碰撞物、车辆受伤部位、驾驶员性别、发动机排量、燃料类型、车辆行驶年龄等19个自变量影响单车碰撞事故的严重程度。研究结果有助于交通管理者采取合适的策略降低交叉口单车事故严重程度。
This research uses 10258 observations collected in UK to analyze crash injury severities for single-vehicle crashes occurring at intersections. Multinomial Logit model is developed in order to account for the correlation between severity categories( slight injury,serious injury and fatality). Various factors such as vehicle attributes, driver characteristics, roadway geometric features and environment factors with all 26 independent variables are examined in this study. The parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood method and IIA test are fulfilled,meanwhile,the results of goodnessof-fit test indicate that the model performs well. The results show that weekend,peak hour,road type,junction type, junction control, pedestrian crossing human control, light conditions, weather conditions,road surface conditions, vehicle type, vehicle manoeuvre, skidding or overtaking, hit object in carriageway, hit object off carriageway, vehicle damage areas, gender of driver, engine capacity,vehicle propulsion and age of vehicle are related to the crash severity at 0. 1 significance level.These findings can help transportation agencies develop appropriate strategies to reduce injury severity resulting from single-vehicle accidents occurring at intersections.
This research uses 10258 observations collected in UK to analyze crash injury severities for single-vehicle crashes occurring at intersections. Multinomial Logit model is developed in order to account for the correlation between severity categories( slight injury,serious injury and fatality). Various factors such as vehicle attributes, driver characteristics, roadway geometric features and environment factors with all 26 independent variables are examined in this study. The parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood method and IIA test are fulfilled,meanwhile,the results of goodnessof-fit test indicate that the model performs well. The results show that weekend,peak hour,road type,junction type, junction control, pedestrian crossing human control, light conditions, weather conditions,road surface conditions, vehicle type, vehicle manoeuvre, skidding or overtaking, hit object in carriageway, hit object off carriageway, vehicle damage areas, gender of driver, engine capacity,vehicle propulsion and age of vehicle are related to the crash severity at 0. 1 significance level.These findings can help transportation agencies develop appropriate strategies to reduce injury severity resulting from single-vehicle accidents occurring at intersections.
引文
[1] WU Qiong,ZHANG Guohui,ZHU Xiaoyu et al. Analysis of Driver Injury Severity in Single-Vehicle Crashes On Rural and Urban Roadways[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2016,94:35-45.
[2] KIM J,ULFARSSON GF,KIM S et al. Driver-Injury Severity in Single-Vehicle Crashes in California:A Mixed Logit Analysis of Heterogeneity Due to Age and Gender[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2013,50:1073-1081.
[3] CHEN H,CAO L,LOGAN DB. Analysis of Risk Factors Affecting the Severity of Intersection Crashes by Logistic Regression[J].Traffic Injury Prevention,2012,13(3):300.
[4] BAGLOEE SA,ASADI M. Crash Analysis at Intersections in the CBD:A Survival Analysis Model[J]. Transportation Research Part A Policy&Practice,2016,94:558-572.
[5] WERNEKE J,VOLLRATH M. What Does the Driver Look at The Influence of Intersection Characteristics On Attention Allocation and Driving Behavior[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2012,45:610-619.
[6] MUJALLI RO,ONA JDOD. Injury Severity Models for Motor Vehicle Accidents:A Review[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers Transport,2013,166(5):255-270.
[7] XIE Y,ZHAO K,HUYNH N. Analysis of Driver Injury Severity in Rural Single-Vehicle Crashes[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2012,47:36-44.
[8] ISLAM S,JONES SL,DYE D. Comprehensive Analysis of Singleand Multi-Vehicle Large Truck At-Fault Crashes On Rural and Urban Roadways in Alabama[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2014,67:148-158.
[9] WANG X,KOCKELMAN K. Use of Heteroscedastic Ordered Logit Model to Study Severity of Occupant Injury:Distinguishing Effects of Vehicle Weight and Type[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2005,1908(1):195-204.
[10] DISSANAYAKE S,ROY U. Crash Severity Analysis of Single Vehicle Run-off-Road Crashes[J]. Journal of Transportation Technologies,2014,04(01):1-10.
[11] HOLDRIDGE JM,SHANKAR VN,ULFARSSON GF. The Crash Severity Impacts of Fixed Roadside Objects[J]. Journal of Safety Research,2005,36(2):139-147.
[12] SAVOLAINEN P,GHOSH I. Examination of Factors Affecting Driver Injury Severity in Michigan's Single-Vehicle—Deer Crashes[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2008,2078(2078):17-25.
[13] TAY R. A Random Parameters Probit Model of Urban and Rural Intersection Crashes[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2015,84:38-40.
[14] LOMBARDI DA,HORREY WJ,COURTNEY TK. Age-Related Differences in Fatal Intersection Crashes in the United States[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2017,99:20-29.
[15] HALEEM K,ALLURI P,GAN A. Analyzing Pedestrian Crash Injury Severity at Signalized and Non-Signalized Locations[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2015,81:14-23.
[16]王雪松,袁景辉,杨筱菡.基于随机效应模型的交叉口事故碰撞类型建模[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(1):81-86.
[17] Mujalli R O,De Ona J. Injury severity models for motor vehicle accidents:a review[J]. Proceedings of The Institution of Civil Engineers-transport,2013,166(5):255-270.
[18] Hu W,Donnell ET. Median Barrier Crash Severity:Some New Insights[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2010,42(6):1697-1704.
[19] Holdridge JM,Shankar VN,Ulfarsson GF. The Crash Severity Impacts of Fixed Roadside Objects[J]. Journal of Safety Research,2005,36(2):139-147.
[20] WU Qiong,ZHANG Guohui,ZHU Xiaoyu et al. Exploratory Multinomial Logit Model-Based Driver Injury Severity Analyses for Teenage and Adult Drivers in Intersection-Related Crashes[J].Traffic Injury Prevention,2016,17(4):413.
[21] Lee D. A Comparison of Choice-Based Landscape Preference Models between British and Korean Visitors to National Parks[J]. Life Science Journal,2013.
[2] KIM J,ULFARSSON GF,KIM S et al. Driver-Injury Severity in Single-Vehicle Crashes in California:A Mixed Logit Analysis of Heterogeneity Due to Age and Gender[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2013,50:1073-1081.
[3] CHEN H,CAO L,LOGAN DB. Analysis of Risk Factors Affecting the Severity of Intersection Crashes by Logistic Regression[J].Traffic Injury Prevention,2012,13(3):300.
[4] BAGLOEE SA,ASADI M. Crash Analysis at Intersections in the CBD:A Survival Analysis Model[J]. Transportation Research Part A Policy&Practice,2016,94:558-572.
[5] WERNEKE J,VOLLRATH M. What Does the Driver Look at The Influence of Intersection Characteristics On Attention Allocation and Driving Behavior[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2012,45:610-619.
[6] MUJALLI RO,ONA JDOD. Injury Severity Models for Motor Vehicle Accidents:A Review[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers Transport,2013,166(5):255-270.
[7] XIE Y,ZHAO K,HUYNH N. Analysis of Driver Injury Severity in Rural Single-Vehicle Crashes[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2012,47:36-44.
[8] ISLAM S,JONES SL,DYE D. Comprehensive Analysis of Singleand Multi-Vehicle Large Truck At-Fault Crashes On Rural and Urban Roadways in Alabama[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2014,67:148-158.
[9] WANG X,KOCKELMAN K. Use of Heteroscedastic Ordered Logit Model to Study Severity of Occupant Injury:Distinguishing Effects of Vehicle Weight and Type[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2005,1908(1):195-204.
[10] DISSANAYAKE S,ROY U. Crash Severity Analysis of Single Vehicle Run-off-Road Crashes[J]. Journal of Transportation Technologies,2014,04(01):1-10.
[11] HOLDRIDGE JM,SHANKAR VN,ULFARSSON GF. The Crash Severity Impacts of Fixed Roadside Objects[J]. Journal of Safety Research,2005,36(2):139-147.
[12] SAVOLAINEN P,GHOSH I. Examination of Factors Affecting Driver Injury Severity in Michigan's Single-Vehicle—Deer Crashes[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2008,2078(2078):17-25.
[13] TAY R. A Random Parameters Probit Model of Urban and Rural Intersection Crashes[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2015,84:38-40.
[14] LOMBARDI DA,HORREY WJ,COURTNEY TK. Age-Related Differences in Fatal Intersection Crashes in the United States[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2017,99:20-29.
[15] HALEEM K,ALLURI P,GAN A. Analyzing Pedestrian Crash Injury Severity at Signalized and Non-Signalized Locations[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2015,81:14-23.
[16]王雪松,袁景辉,杨筱菡.基于随机效应模型的交叉口事故碰撞类型建模[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(1):81-86.
[17] Mujalli R O,De Ona J. Injury severity models for motor vehicle accidents:a review[J]. Proceedings of The Institution of Civil Engineers-transport,2013,166(5):255-270.
[18] Hu W,Donnell ET. Median Barrier Crash Severity:Some New Insights[J]. Accident Analysis&Prevention,2010,42(6):1697-1704.
[19] Holdridge JM,Shankar VN,Ulfarsson GF. The Crash Severity Impacts of Fixed Roadside Objects[J]. Journal of Safety Research,2005,36(2):139-147.
[20] WU Qiong,ZHANG Guohui,ZHU Xiaoyu et al. Exploratory Multinomial Logit Model-Based Driver Injury Severity Analyses for Teenage and Adult Drivers in Intersection-Related Crashes[J].Traffic Injury Prevention,2016,17(4):413.
[21] Lee D. A Comparison of Choice-Based Landscape Preference Models between British and Korean Visitors to National Parks[J]. Life Science Journal,2013.