青海省民和县冬小麦干旱农业气象灾害风险区划
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摘要
为防御或减轻气象灾害对农业生产的影响,本文利用青海省50个气象台站1961年以来到2007年12月的日照、气温、气压、蒸发、地面温度等气象资料。西宁、格尔木、玉树3个太阳辐射观测站总辐射观测资料。构建民和县冬小麦气候生产潜力模式,进而对当地冬小麦平均减产率以及干旱风险指数等展开分析。在进行冬小麦干旱灾害风险区划的评价时,选取本区冬小麦种植区划、光温生产潜力分布、平均减产率、气候生产潜力以及干旱风险指数等指标来进行,并在评估干旱风险上用到GIS统计分布与空间叠置分析功能,通过对民和县气候资源的区划,将民和地区冬小麦干旱风险区划为非种植区、低风险区、中风险区、较高风险区、高风险区五个区域。
In order to prevent or mitigate the impact of meteorological disasters on agricultural production,this paper uses weather data from 50 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province from 1961 to December 2007 for sunshine,air temperature,atmospheric pressure,evaporation and ground temperature. The total solar radiation observation data of three solar radiation observatories in Xining,Golmud and Yushu. To construct the model of climate potential of winter wheat in Minhe County,and then analyze the average reduction rate of winter wheat and drought risk index. In the evaluation of winter wheat drought risk zoning,the selection of winter wheat planting regions,the distribution of photo-thermal production potential,average yield reduction,climate production potential,and drought risk index were used to carry out the assessment,and GIS statistics were used to assess drought risk. With the function of distribution and spatial superposition analysis,through the division of climate resources in Minhe County,the drought risk of winter wheat in Minhe District was divided into five regions: non-planting area,low-risk area,medium-risk area,higher-risk area,and high-risk area.
In order to prevent or mitigate the impact of meteorological disasters on agricultural production,this paper uses weather data from 50 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province from 1961 to December 2007 for sunshine,air temperature,atmospheric pressure,evaporation and ground temperature. The total solar radiation observation data of three solar radiation observatories in Xining,Golmud and Yushu. To construct the model of climate potential of winter wheat in Minhe County,and then analyze the average reduction rate of winter wheat and drought risk index. In the evaluation of winter wheat drought risk zoning,the selection of winter wheat planting regions,the distribution of photo-thermal production potential,average yield reduction,climate production potential,and drought risk index were used to carry out the assessment,and GIS statistics were used to assess drought risk. With the function of distribution and spatial superposition analysis,through the division of climate resources in Minhe County,the drought risk of winter wheat in Minhe District was divided into five regions: non-planting area,low-risk area,medium-risk area,higher-risk area,and high-risk area.
引文
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[5]周秉荣,胡爱军、陈国茜等,青海省农牧业气候资源综合区划及评价[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):191-198.
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[2]周秉荣,李凤霞,颜亮东,等.青海省太阳总辐射估算模型研究[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4)495-499.
[3]颜亮东,周秉荣,李晓东,李甫,张娟.三江源地区太阳能资源区划及利用潜力研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(11):2058-2059.
[4]王素艳,北方冬小麦干旱风险评估及风险区划研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2004.
[5]周秉荣,胡爱军、陈国茜等,青海省农牧业气候资源综合区划及评价[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):191-198.
[6]张超,基于GIS干旱风险评估与区划方法研究[D].石家庄:河北师范大学,2010:1-105