气候变化对滇中引水工程取水影响分析
|
摘要
气候变化正在逐渐改变全球的水循环现状,并对水文水资源及其应用产生重大影响。在联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)对气候变化趋势进行分析的基础上,优选近期、远期气候变化情景,并模拟在未来气候变化情景下金沙江流域干流主要断面的逐日流量过程,用以分析气候变化对金沙江干流石鼓断面水文干旱以及对滇中引水工程取水的影响。研究结果表明:受未来可能的气候变化影响,金沙江干流石鼓断面的水文干旱发生强度和发生频率都将有所增加,远期较近期具有高的不确定性;滇中引水工程不可取水天数和可调水量将会增加,但总体而言对工程的不利影响较小。
Climate change is gradually changing the global water cycle status,and will have a significant impact on the hydrology and water resources utilization. Based on the predictions to climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change( IPCC),the recent and long term climate change scenarios were selected and the daily flow process of main stations on the Jinsha River main stream was simulated to analyze the impacts of climate change on hydrological drought of Shigu cross-section and water intake of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project. The results show that affected by the probable future climate change,the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought at Shigu cross-section will both increase,and the long-term uncertainty is higher than short-term uncertainty. The number of days unable to intake water increases as well as the transferable water quantity of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project,but generally speaking,climate change has small adverse influence on the project.
Climate change is gradually changing the global water cycle status,and will have a significant impact on the hydrology and water resources utilization. Based on the predictions to climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change( IPCC),the recent and long term climate change scenarios were selected and the daily flow process of main stations on the Jinsha River main stream was simulated to analyze the impacts of climate change on hydrological drought of Shigu cross-section and water intake of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project. The results show that affected by the probable future climate change,the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought at Shigu cross-section will both increase,and the long-term uncertainty is higher than short-term uncertainty. The number of days unable to intake water increases as well as the transferable water quantity of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project,but generally speaking,climate change has small adverse influence on the project.
引文
[1] IPCC. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,Climate Change 2013:the Physical Science Basis:Summary for Policymakers[R/OL].[2013-10-28]. http://www. climatechange 2013. org/images/uploads/WGIAR5SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf.
[2] IPCC. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report(AR5),Climate Change 2013:the Physical Science Basis:Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment[R/OL].[2013-10-30]. http://www.climate change 2013. org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_All.pdf.
[3]沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[4]陈剑池,金蓉玲,管光明.气候变化对南水北调中线工程可调水量的影响[J].人民长江,1999,30(3):9-10,16.
[5]陈媛,王顺久,王国庆,等.金沙江流域径流变化特性分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2010,30(2):26-30.
[6]王苓茹,薛联青,王思琪,等.气候变化条件下洪泽湖以上流域水资源演变趋势[J].水资源保护,2015,31(3):57-62.
[7]卢璐,王琼,王国庆,等.金沙江流域近60年气候变化趋势及径流相应关系[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2016,37(5):16-21.
[8]周旋,郝振纯,李小韵,等.汤旺河流域径流变化研究[J].三峡大学学报:自然科学版,2018,40(1):12-14.
[9]周晓曦,阿不都热合曼·哈力克.气候变化对和田河径流的影响研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(3):21-25.
[10]何自立,史良,马孝义.气候变化对汉江上游径流特征影响评估[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(6):37-43.
[11]王苓如,薛联青,王思琪,等.气候变化条件下洪泽湖以上流域水资源演变趋势[J].水资源保护,2015(3):57-62.
[12]唐芳芳,徐宗学,左德鹏.黄河上游流域气候变化对径流的影响[J].资源科学,2012(6):1079-1088.
[13]郝振纯,李丽,王加虎,等.气候变化对地表水资源的影响[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,2007(3):425-432.
[14]贾仰文,高辉,牛存稳,等.气候变化对黄河源区径流过程的影响[J].水利学报,2008(1):52-58.
[15]刘苏峡,丁文浩,莫兴国,等.澜沧江和怒江流域的气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2017(4):356-365.
[16]桂耀,肖昌虎,侯丽娜.跨流域引调水工程规划方案优选研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(9):63-66.
[17] Heim J,Richard R. A review of twentieth-century drought Indices used in the united states[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165.
[18]袁文平,周广胜.干旱指标的理论分析与展望研究[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(6):982-991.
[19]吴杰锋,陈兴伟,高路.水文干旱对气象干旱的相应及其临界条件[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):199-204.
[20]董前进,谢平.水文干旱研究进展[J].水文,2014,34(4):1-7.
[21]王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等.干旱指标研究的进展与绽放[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):60-65.
[2] IPCC. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report(AR5),Climate Change 2013:the Physical Science Basis:Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment[R/OL].[2013-10-30]. http://www.climate change 2013. org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_All.pdf.
[3]沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[4]陈剑池,金蓉玲,管光明.气候变化对南水北调中线工程可调水量的影响[J].人民长江,1999,30(3):9-10,16.
[5]陈媛,王顺久,王国庆,等.金沙江流域径流变化特性分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2010,30(2):26-30.
[6]王苓茹,薛联青,王思琪,等.气候变化条件下洪泽湖以上流域水资源演变趋势[J].水资源保护,2015,31(3):57-62.
[7]卢璐,王琼,王国庆,等.金沙江流域近60年气候变化趋势及径流相应关系[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2016,37(5):16-21.
[8]周旋,郝振纯,李小韵,等.汤旺河流域径流变化研究[J].三峡大学学报:自然科学版,2018,40(1):12-14.
[9]周晓曦,阿不都热合曼·哈力克.气候变化对和田河径流的影响研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(3):21-25.
[10]何自立,史良,马孝义.气候变化对汉江上游径流特征影响评估[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(6):37-43.
[11]王苓如,薛联青,王思琪,等.气候变化条件下洪泽湖以上流域水资源演变趋势[J].水资源保护,2015(3):57-62.
[12]唐芳芳,徐宗学,左德鹏.黄河上游流域气候变化对径流的影响[J].资源科学,2012(6):1079-1088.
[13]郝振纯,李丽,王加虎,等.气候变化对地表水资源的影响[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,2007(3):425-432.
[14]贾仰文,高辉,牛存稳,等.气候变化对黄河源区径流过程的影响[J].水利学报,2008(1):52-58.
[15]刘苏峡,丁文浩,莫兴国,等.澜沧江和怒江流域的气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2017(4):356-365.
[16]桂耀,肖昌虎,侯丽娜.跨流域引调水工程规划方案优选研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(9):63-66.
[17] Heim J,Richard R. A review of twentieth-century drought Indices used in the united states[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165.
[18]袁文平,周广胜.干旱指标的理论分析与展望研究[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(6):982-991.
[19]吴杰锋,陈兴伟,高路.水文干旱对气象干旱的相应及其临界条件[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):199-204.
[20]董前进,谢平.水文干旱研究进展[J].水文,2014,34(4):1-7.
[21]王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等.干旱指标研究的进展与绽放[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):60-65.