1971—2015年烟台冬小麦不同生育期温度变化
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摘要
旨在分析不同生育期温度变化对冬小麦的影响,基于1971—2015年烟台平均气温资料,利用线性倾向率和M-K检验,分析气温的年际变化趋势、年代变化率和突变点。结果表明:烟台冬小麦全生育期、营养生长期、营养生长和生殖生长并生期(并生期)和生殖生长期温度均明显增加,线性倾向率依次为0.15℃/10 a(P<0.01)、0.12℃/10 a(P<0.05)、0.21℃/10 a(P<0.01)和0.28℃/10 a(P<0.01);营养生长期、并生期和生殖生长期、全生育期平均温度的变异系数依次为17.27%、11.80%、3.94%、8.05%;营养生长期、并生期、生殖生长期、全生育期的突变年份分别出现在1987年、1991年、1981年、1982年。温度升高会导致冬小麦难以通过春化,花芽分化期缩短,生殖生长期遭遇初夏干热风等灾害性天气影响,最终造成小麦减产。在全球变暖背景下,应顺应气候变化,合理搭配冬小麦品种和采取相应管理措施,以促进烟台农业高产高质地可持续发展。
To analyze the effects of temperature change in different growth stages on winter wheat, based on theaverage temperature data of Yantai from 1971 to 2015, we studied the inter-annual changes, the decadalchange rates and mutations by using the linear trend rate and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that: theaverage temperature in the whole growth period, the vegetative period, the vegetative and reproductive growthperiod, and the reproductive growth period increased at the rate of 0.15℃/10 a(P<0.01), 0.12℃/10 a(P<0.05),0.21℃/10 a(P<0.01) and 0.28℃/10 a(P<0.01), respectively; the variation coefficient in the vegetative period,the vegetative and reproductive growth period, the reproductive growth period and the whole growth period was 17.27%, 11.80%, 3.94%, 8.05%, respectively, and the mutation of the above periods appeared in 1987, 1991,1981 and 1982, respectively. The increase of temperature eventually makes it difficult to complete thevernalization phase and shortens the bud differentiation period, besides, the reproductive growth period mayexperience extreme weather such as hot-arid wind in early summer, which may cause a drop in wheat yield.Under the background of global warming, we should conform to climate change, coordinate winter wheatvarieties and take corresponding management measures to promote the sustainable development of high yieldand high quality of agriculture in Yantai.
To analyze the effects of temperature change in different growth stages on winter wheat, based on theaverage temperature data of Yantai from 1971 to 2015, we studied the inter-annual changes, the decadalchange rates and mutations by using the linear trend rate and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that: theaverage temperature in the whole growth period, the vegetative period, the vegetative and reproductive growthperiod, and the reproductive growth period increased at the rate of 0.15℃/10 a(P<0.01), 0.12℃/10 a(P<0.05),0.21℃/10 a(P<0.01) and 0.28℃/10 a(P<0.01), respectively; the variation coefficient in the vegetative period,the vegetative and reproductive growth period, the reproductive growth period and the whole growth period was 17.27%, 11.80%, 3.94%, 8.05%, respectively, and the mutation of the above periods appeared in 1987, 1991,1981 and 1982, respectively. The increase of temperature eventually makes it difficult to complete thevernalization phase and shortens the bud differentiation period, besides, the reproductive growth period mayexperience extreme weather such as hot-arid wind in early summer, which may cause a drop in wheat yield.Under the background of global warming, we should conform to climate change, coordinate winter wheatvarieties and take corresponding management measures to promote the sustainable development of high yieldand high quality of agriculture in Yantai.
引文
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[16]王占彪.气候变化背景下华北麦-玉两熟生产的风险评价及低碳策略[D].北京:中国农业大学,2015:115.
[17]谭凯炎,邬定荣,赵花荣.气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(6):333-341.
[18]仝文伟,鲁建立,张玉娟,等.春季冬小麦冻害气候及生理生化原因分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(3):1532-1533,1536.
[19]余松烈,张高英,沈毓骏,等.作物栽培学[M].北京:农业出版社,1992:29.
[20]北京农业大学农业气象专业.农业气象学[M].北京:科学出版社,1984:158-174.
[21]李森,郭安红,韩丽娟,等.基于综合强度指数的黄淮海地区干热风灾害时空特征[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(1):76-83.
[22]烟台市统计局.2016年烟台统计年鉴[EB/OL].Http://tjj.yantai.gov.cn/art/2018/3/29/art_118_935459.html,2018-03-29.
[23]孙新素,龙致炜,宋广鹏,等.气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植模式和产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(13):2476-2487.
[24]林修栋,程志攀,宋佳颖,等.1971-2010年烟台市气温变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2014(23):250-251.
[25]赵玉花.播期对山东冬小麦产量和抗倒性能的影响[J].农业工程技术,2018,38(5):19-20.
[26]李克南,杨晓光,慕臣英,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅷ--气候变化对中国冬小麦冬春性品种种植界限的影响[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(8):1583-1594.
[2]Nicholls N.Increased australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends[J].Nature,1997,387(6632):484-485.
[3]Lobell D B,Schlenker W,Costa-Roberts J.Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J].Science,2011,333(6042):616-620.
[4]胡洵瑀,王靖,冯利平.华北平原冬小麦各生育阶段农业气候要素变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):317-323.
[5]马姗姗.气候变化背景下宁夏北移冬小麦气候适应性与成本效益分析[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2011:105.
[6]肖登攀,陶福禄,沈彦俊,等.华北平原冬小麦对去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(4):430-438.
[7]李森,韩丽娟,郭安红,等.1961-2015年黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风灾害时空分布特征[J].生态学报,2018,38(19):6972-6980.
[8]王瑞峥,江洪,金佳鑫,等.黄淮海地区冬小麦物候对气候变化的响应及对产量的影响[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(22):71-75.
[9]烟台市统计局.烟台市2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[N].烟台日报,2018-03-16(005).
[10]张奕凡.烟台市国土空间开发适宜性分区研究[D].烟台:鲁东大学,2018:65.
[11]山衍鹏.烟台市种植业结构调整现状与发展对策研究[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2018:57.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2016:58-60.
[13]王占彪,王猛,尹小刚,等.近50年华北平原冬小麦主要生育期水热时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2015,20(5):16-23.
[14]刘玉洁,陈巧敏,葛全胜,等.气候变化背景下1981-2010中国小麦物候变化时空分异[J].中国科学:地球科学,2018,48(7):888-898.
[15]梁波,宋佳颖,王冰,等.气象因子对冬小麦产量影响分析及建议措施[J].安徽农业科学,2015,43(28):161-163.
[16]王占彪.气候变化背景下华北麦-玉两熟生产的风险评价及低碳策略[D].北京:中国农业大学,2015:115.
[17]谭凯炎,邬定荣,赵花荣.气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(6):333-341.
[18]仝文伟,鲁建立,张玉娟,等.春季冬小麦冻害气候及生理生化原因分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(3):1532-1533,1536.
[19]余松烈,张高英,沈毓骏,等.作物栽培学[M].北京:农业出版社,1992:29.
[20]北京农业大学农业气象专业.农业气象学[M].北京:科学出版社,1984:158-174.
[21]李森,郭安红,韩丽娟,等.基于综合强度指数的黄淮海地区干热风灾害时空特征[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(1):76-83.
[22]烟台市统计局.2016年烟台统计年鉴[EB/OL].Http://tjj.yantai.gov.cn/art/2018/3/29/art_118_935459.html,2018-03-29.
[23]孙新素,龙致炜,宋广鹏,等.气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植模式和产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(13):2476-2487.
[24]林修栋,程志攀,宋佳颖,等.1971-2010年烟台市气温变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2014(23):250-251.
[25]赵玉花.播期对山东冬小麦产量和抗倒性能的影响[J].农业工程技术,2018,38(5):19-20.
[26]李克南,杨晓光,慕臣英,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅷ--气候变化对中国冬小麦冬春性品种种植界限的影响[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(8):1583-1594.