气候变化对汉中市主要粮食作物产量的影响
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摘要
利用1998～2017年汉中市气象数据和粮食产量资料,采用线性趋势法分析了汉中市气候因素和主要粮食作物产量的变化特征,并应用灰色关联法分析了气候变化与主要粮食作物产量之间的关系。结果表明:近20年来,汉中市气候呈明显的暖湿化趋势,年平均气温的增长倾向率为0.48℃/10 a,年降水量的增长倾向率为53.05 mm/10 a,年日照时数的下降倾向率为-79.9 h/10 a;夏粮和秋粮作物期尺度上的气候变化特点与年尺度趋同。汉中市小麦、稻谷和玉米的单产和气候单产均呈上升趋势,其中稻谷单产的增长最慢,增长倾向率为71.38 kg/(hm~2·10 a);玉米气候单产的增长最快,增长倾向率为93.57 kg/(hm~2·10 a)。汉中市小麦、稻谷和玉米单产均与气温的关联度最大,与降水和日照时数的关联度较小。
By using meteorological data and grain yield data of Hanzhong city from 1998 to 2017, the characteristics of climate change and yield of major grain crops in Hanzhong city were analyzed with linear trend. The relationship between climate change and yield of major grain crops was analyzed with gray correlation method. The results showed that over the past 20 years, the climate change showed a trend of obvious wet, and annual average temperature increase tendency rate were 0.48 ℃/10 a. Annual precipitation growth tendency rate was 53.05 mm/10 a, Annual sunshine time was on the decline, tendency rate for-79.9 h/10 a. the climate change characteristics of summer crops and autumn grain crops scales were similar to annual scale. The yield per unit area and climatic yield per unit area of wheat, rice and corn in Hanzhong showed an upward trend. Among which the yield per unit area of rice was the slowest, with a growth trend rate of 71.38 kg/(hm~2·10 a). The yield per unit area of corn was the most significant, with a growth trend rate of 93.57 kg/(hm~2·10 a). The yield per unit area of wheat, rice and corn were all the most correlated with temperature, and they had little correlation with precipitation and sunshine time.
By using meteorological data and grain yield data of Hanzhong city from 1998 to 2017, the characteristics of climate change and yield of major grain crops in Hanzhong city were analyzed with linear trend. The relationship between climate change and yield of major grain crops was analyzed with gray correlation method. The results showed that over the past 20 years, the climate change showed a trend of obvious wet, and annual average temperature increase tendency rate were 0.48 ℃/10 a. Annual precipitation growth tendency rate was 53.05 mm/10 a, Annual sunshine time was on the decline, tendency rate for-79.9 h/10 a. the climate change characteristics of summer crops and autumn grain crops scales were similar to annual scale. The yield per unit area and climatic yield per unit area of wheat, rice and corn in Hanzhong showed an upward trend. Among which the yield per unit area of rice was the slowest, with a growth trend rate of 71.38 kg/(hm~2·10 a). The yield per unit area of corn was the most significant, with a growth trend rate of 93.57 kg/(hm~2·10 a). The yield per unit area of wheat, rice and corn were all the most correlated with temperature, and they had little correlation with precipitation and sunshine time.
引文
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[2] Jones P D.Hemispheric surface air temperature variations:a reanalysis and an update to 1993 [J].Journal of Climatology,1994,7(11):1794-1802.
[3] Tubiello F N,Fischer G.Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture:global and regional effects of mitigation,2000～2080 [J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2007,74(7):1030-1056.
[4] 刘颖杰,林而达.气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4):229-233.
[5] 杨春艳,沈渭寿,李海东.1985～2010年西藏粮食产量对气候和耕地变化的响应[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(17):261-269.
[6] 秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.
[7] 唐国平,李秀彬,Fischer G,等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].地理学报,2000,55(2):129-138.
[8] 安艺明,赵文武.全球气候变化与粮食安全:2012年Planet Under Pressure国际会议述评[J].生态学报,2012,32(15):4940-4942.
[9] Battisti D S,Naylor R L.Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat [J].Science,2009,323(5911):240-244.
[10] 秦大河.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[11] 王志杰,苏嫄.1951～2010年汉中市气温变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):169-174.
[12] 潘根新,高民,胡国华,等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].农业环境科学学报,2011,30(9):1698-1706.
[13] 郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.
[14] 潘敖大,曹颖,陈海山,等.近25a气候变化对江苏省粮食产量的影响[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(2):217-228.
[15] 张亚宁,张明军,王圣杰,等.气候变化对河西走廊主要农作物的影响[J].生态环境学报,2017,26(8):1325-1335.
[16] 张小峰,史平,王欣.气候因子与汉中粮食生产的关系[J].陕西农业科学,2010(4):115-120.
[17] 钱妙芬.大蒜产量波动的气候原因分析[J].西南农业大学学报,2001,23(6):507-509.
[18] 汪燕芬,田俊明,詹和明,等.云南省玉米杂交种产量和产量构成因素的灰色关联度分析[J].西南农业学报,2008,21(4):925-928.
[19] 谢立勇,李悦,徐玉秀,等.气候变化对农业生产与粮食安全影响的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):235-239.
[20] IPCC.Climate change 2014:impact,adaptation,and vulnerability [M/OL]//Climate change and human health.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[21] 钱凤魁,王文涛,刘燕华.农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策[J].中国人口资源与环境,2014,24(5):19-24.
[22] 肖薇薇,许晶晶.气候变化对华北平原主要农作物生长影响研究:以冬小麦、夏玉米为例[J].江西农业学报,2016,28(6):65-70.