中国稀土市场供需非均衡性分析与预警
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摘要
供需非均衡问题是影响中国稀土市场良性运行的主要因素之一。本文通过延伸非瓦尔拉斯均衡理论及模型的应用领域,对中国稀土市场的有效供需开展非均衡性分析,并建立双曲线型聚合方程,使用2000—2016年中国稀土市场供需、工业企业和采矿业宏观基本面年度数据进行实证分析,探究了长期以来中国稀土市场供需不平衡状况的根本症结。研究表明,中国稀土市场具有的结构分散、买方垄断、价格偏低、黑稀土频现以及政策干预性强等特点,是其呈现非均衡性的重要成因。基于灰色关联诊断得出:稀土价格、生产技术、生产成本、企业收入、企业负债、宏观政策和工业发展状况等是影响稀土有效供需的敏感因素。从非均衡度测算值看,稀土市场供需的非均衡变化趋势大致为:从有效供给过剩转变为有效需求略旺。依据预警线设置,稀土市场较多年份呈现35%以上的供大于求重警状态。本文结论可为促进中国稀土市场均衡化发展提供一定的理论依据和决策支撑。
China's rare earth plays a mainstay role in the world, but there are few systematic studies on the non-equilibrium state of supply and demand in the market. This study extended the application of non-equilibrium theory and its model to analyze the non-equilibrium state between effective supply and effective demand of the rare earth resources market in China, establishing hyperbolic equations and conducting empirical analysis by using the 2000-2016 macro-level data on China's rare earth market supply and demand, industrial enterprises and mining industry, and finally analyzing the crux of long-term imbalances between supply and demand. The results show that China's rare earth market is characterized by decentralization, buyer monopoly, low prices,rampant smuggling, and strong policy intervention, which are important causes of its nonequilibrium condition. Based on grey relational analysis, rare earth price, production technology and cost, enterprise income and debt, macroeconomic policy, and industrial development are sensitive factors of rare earth's effective supply and demand. Non-equilibrium degree calculation results indicate that the non-equilibrium trend of supply and demand in rare earth market is changing from oversupply to excessive demand. Based on the early-warning threshold values, in many years the market was in a serious warning state where supply exceeded demand by more than35%. The conclusions may provide some basis for warning and decision support for promoting a balanced development of China's rare earth market.
China's rare earth plays a mainstay role in the world, but there are few systematic studies on the non-equilibrium state of supply and demand in the market. This study extended the application of non-equilibrium theory and its model to analyze the non-equilibrium state between effective supply and effective demand of the rare earth resources market in China, establishing hyperbolic equations and conducting empirical analysis by using the 2000-2016 macro-level data on China's rare earth market supply and demand, industrial enterprises and mining industry, and finally analyzing the crux of long-term imbalances between supply and demand. The results show that China's rare earth market is characterized by decentralization, buyer monopoly, low prices,rampant smuggling, and strong policy intervention, which are important causes of its nonequilibrium condition. Based on grey relational analysis, rare earth price, production technology and cost, enterprise income and debt, macroeconomic policy, and industrial development are sensitive factors of rare earth's effective supply and demand. Non-equilibrium degree calculation results indicate that the non-equilibrium trend of supply and demand in rare earth market is changing from oversupply to excessive demand. Based on the early-warning threshold values, in many years the market was in a serious warning state where supply exceeded demand by more than35%. The conclusions may provide some basis for warning and decision support for promoting a balanced development of China's rare earth market.
引文
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[11] Farooq B, Miller E J. Towards integrated land use and transportation:A dynamic disequilibrium based microsimulation framework for built space markets[J]. Transportation Research, 2012, 46(7):1030-1053.
[12]童光毅,刘星.我国房地产价格的非均衡性[J].管理世界, 2008,(1):175-177.[Tong G Y, Liu X. The imbalance of real estate prices in China[J]. Management World, 2008,(1):175-177.]
[13] Chegwidden J, Kingsnorth D J. Rare Earths:Facing the Uncertainties of Supply[R]. Hong Kong:The Sixth International Rare Earths Conference, 2010.
[14] Valk V. Rare earths, shortage, price spike, spark supply scramble[J]. Chemical Week, 2011, 173(10):19-23.
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[17] Epaulard A, Pommeret A. Optimally eating a stochastic cake:A recursive utility approach[J]. Resource and Energy Economics,2003, 25(2):129-139.
[18] Lee J, List J A, Strazicich M C. Non-renewable resource prices:Deterministic or stochastic trends?[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2006, 51(3):354-370.
[19] Carlson M, Khokher Z, Titman S. Equilibrium exhaustible resource price dynamics[J]. Journal of Finance, 2007, 62(4):1663-1703.
[20]宋文飞,李国平,韩先锋.稀土定价权缺失、理论机理及制度解释[J].中国工业经济, 2011,(10):46-55.[Song W F, Li G P, Han X F. Missed pricing power over rare earth theoretical mechanism and system explanation[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2011,(10):46-55.]
[21]吴巧生,孙奇.我国稀土价格形成机制及策略[J].中国矿业,2015, 24(1):30-34.[Wu Q S, Sun Q. The rare earth price formation mechanism and the strategies[J]. China Mining Magazine,2015, 24(1):30-34.]
[22] Korinek J, Kim J. Export Restrictions on Strategic Raw Materials and Their Impact on Trade and Global Supply[R]. Paris:OECD Headquarters, 2009.
[23] Hurst C. China’s Rare Earth Elements Industry:What Can the West Learn?[R]. Washington:Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, 2010.
[24] Looney R. Recent developments on the rare earth Front:Evidence of a new technocratic mercantilism emerging in China[J]. World Economics, 2011, 12(1):47-78.
[25] Moss R L, Tzimas E, Kara H. Critical Metals in Strategic Energy Technologies[R]. Netherlands:JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, 2011.
[26]宋益,黄健柏,钟美瑞.外部性成本内部化视角下战略性矿产资源关税替代性政策研究:以稀土矿为例[J].资源科学, 2018, 40(3):611-622.[Song Y, Huang J B, Zhong M R. Research on tariffs’alternative policy of strategic mineral resources from the perspective of external cost internalization taking rare earth mine as an example[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(3):611-622.]
[27]杨斌清,张贤平.世界稀土生产与消费结构分析[J].稀土, 2014,35(1):110-118.[Yang B Q, Zhang X P. Analysis of global rare earth production and consumption structure[J]. Chinese Rare Earths, 2014, 35(1):110-118.]
[28]阙彬.房地产市场供求非均衡分析[D].成都:西南财经大学,2010.[Que B. The Disequilibrium Analysis with Supply and Demand of Real Estate Market[D]. Chengdu:Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 2010.]
[29]于左,易福欢.中国稀土出口定价权缺失的形成机制分析[J].财贸经济, 2013(5):97-104.[Yu Z, Yi F H. Analysis on formation mechanism of lack of China’s pricing power on rare earth export[J]. Finance&Trade Economics, 2013(5):97-104.]
[30]毛克贞,吴一丁.稀土出口价格与稀土储备[J].有色金属科学与工程, 2012, 3(5):82-88.[Mao K Z, Wu Y D. Rare earth export price and rare earth reserve[J]. Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering, 2012, 3(5):82-88.]
[31]何欢浪.下游进口国家的稀土储备与我国稀土出口政策[J].财经研究, 2014, 40(4):56-64.[He H L. Rare earth reserves of downstream importing countries and rare earth export policy in China[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014, 40(4):56-64.]
[32]王玉珍.我国稀土产业政策效果实证研究[J].宏观经济研究,2015,(2):39-47.[Wang Y Z. Empirical study on the policy effect of China’s rare earth industry[J]. Macroeconomics, 2015,(2):39-47.]
[33]张世英,余国新.中国1953-1979年钢材市场需求和供给分析[J].系统工程, 1993, 11(3):1-6.[Zhang S Y, Yu G X. An analysis of demand and supply for China’s steel market(1953-1979)[J].Systems Engineering, 1993, 11(3):1-6.]
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[38]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中工学院出版社,1987.[Deng J L. The Primary Methods of Grey System Theory[M].Wuhan:Huazhong Institute of Technology Press, 1987.]
[39]吴一丁,毛克贞.“稀土问题”及稀土产业的政策取向[J].经济体制改革, 2011,(5):170-173.[Wu Y D, Mao K Z.“Rare earth problem”and policy orientation of rare earth industry[J]. Reform of Economic System, 2011,(5):170-173.]
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1)中国稀土供应量占世界比例由美国地质调查局(USGS)数据计算得出,消费量占比情况来源于长江证券部公布数据。
2)稀土氧化物包含了多种元素,但是细分元素数据资料十分匮乏,文中使用REO这一综合指标来进行测算,具有一定的代表性。
3)中国稀土进出口贸易主要以稀土初级产品为主,按照HS编码大体上可分为稀土氧化物(2846)、稀土金属(280530)和其他化合物(2846)。依据本文界定,稀土资源市场供需状况以REO供需总量来衡量,为使估计更有效,文中稀土贸易数据不纳入其他稀土产品。
4)稀土价格为中国稀土氧化物产品的出口均价,即UN Comtrade中HS编码为284610和284690这两类产品的出口价格均值。
5)这里的稀土出口量数据来源于国外网站,其中还包含了黑稀土出口这部分。
6)稀土专利数来源网址:http://www.soopat.com/;全部专利包括发明、实用新型、外观、发明授权。
7)从2015年开始,中国取消稀土出口配额制度,因此2015年和2016年的稀土出口配额量为0。
[2]王万力.非均衡理论下住宅市场供求机制研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社, 2011.[Wang W L. Research on Supply and Demand Mechanism of Housing Market Based on Disequilibrium Theory[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press, 2011.]
[3] Keynes J M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money[M]. London:Palgrave Macmillan, 1936.
[4]田新翠,雷钦礼,吕月英.基于非均衡理论研究国际石油价格波动对中国经济的影响[J].数理统计与管理, 2010, 29(2):294-304.[Tian X C, Lei Q L, Lv Y Y. Study the influence of oil price fluctuation on China’s economy by non-equilibrium theory[J]. Application of Statistics and Management, 2010, 29(2):294-304.]
[5]慈向阳,赵德余.中国电力市场的非均衡研究:制度偏好差异的视角[J].工业技术经济, 2010, 29(3):71-74.[Ci X Y, Zhao D Y.A disequilibrium study of China’s electricity market:From the perspective of institutional preference difference[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2010, 29(3):71-74.]
[6]周朗生,卢石英.中国低碳经济非均衡发展研究:基于概念内涵、理论演进和路径选择的分析[J].经济问题探索, 2011,(2):28-32.[Zhou L S, Lu S Y. Studies on unbalanced development of China's low-carbon economy based on the analysis of concept connotation, theoretical evolution and route choice[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2011,(2):28-32.]
[7]高天明,沈镭,刘立涛.中国煤炭资源不均衡性及流动轨迹[J].自然资源学报, 2013, 28(1):92-103.[Gao T M, Shen L, Liu L T.The inequality of China’s coal resources and its flow paths[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(1):92-103.]
[8] Burns L S, Grebler L. The Housing of Nations[M]. London:Macmillan Press, 1977.
[9] Riddel M. Housing-market disequilibrium:An examination of housing-market price and stock dynamics 1967-1998[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2004, 13(6):120-135.
[10] Hui E C, Lam M C, Ho V S. Market disequilibrium and urban land shortages:Analysis of policy and patterns in Hong Kong[J]. Urban Planning and Development, 2006, 132(2):80-88.
[11] Farooq B, Miller E J. Towards integrated land use and transportation:A dynamic disequilibrium based microsimulation framework for built space markets[J]. Transportation Research, 2012, 46(7):1030-1053.
[12]童光毅,刘星.我国房地产价格的非均衡性[J].管理世界, 2008,(1):175-177.[Tong G Y, Liu X. The imbalance of real estate prices in China[J]. Management World, 2008,(1):175-177.]
[13] Chegwidden J, Kingsnorth D J. Rare Earths:Facing the Uncertainties of Supply[R]. Hong Kong:The Sixth International Rare Earths Conference, 2010.
[14] Valk V. Rare earths, shortage, price spike, spark supply scramble[J]. Chemical Week, 2011, 173(10):19-23.
[15]苏文清.中国稀土产业经济分析与政策研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2009.[Su W Q. Economic Analysis and Policy Research of China’s Rare Earth Industry[M]. Beijing:Chinese Financial&Economic Publishing House, 2009.]
[16]周宝炉,李仲学,赵怡晴.世界稀土市场动态及产业对策建议[J].中国稀土学报, 2016, 34(3):257-264.[Zhou B L, Li Z X,Zhao Y Q. Current status of world rare earths market and countermeasures for its industry development[J]. Journal of Chinese Society of Rare Earths, 2016, 34(3):257-264.]
[17] Epaulard A, Pommeret A. Optimally eating a stochastic cake:A recursive utility approach[J]. Resource and Energy Economics,2003, 25(2):129-139.
[18] Lee J, List J A, Strazicich M C. Non-renewable resource prices:Deterministic or stochastic trends?[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2006, 51(3):354-370.
[19] Carlson M, Khokher Z, Titman S. Equilibrium exhaustible resource price dynamics[J]. Journal of Finance, 2007, 62(4):1663-1703.
[20]宋文飞,李国平,韩先锋.稀土定价权缺失、理论机理及制度解释[J].中国工业经济, 2011,(10):46-55.[Song W F, Li G P, Han X F. Missed pricing power over rare earth theoretical mechanism and system explanation[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2011,(10):46-55.]
[21]吴巧生,孙奇.我国稀土价格形成机制及策略[J].中国矿业,2015, 24(1):30-34.[Wu Q S, Sun Q. The rare earth price formation mechanism and the strategies[J]. China Mining Magazine,2015, 24(1):30-34.]
[22] Korinek J, Kim J. Export Restrictions on Strategic Raw Materials and Their Impact on Trade and Global Supply[R]. Paris:OECD Headquarters, 2009.
[23] Hurst C. China’s Rare Earth Elements Industry:What Can the West Learn?[R]. Washington:Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, 2010.
[24] Looney R. Recent developments on the rare earth Front:Evidence of a new technocratic mercantilism emerging in China[J]. World Economics, 2011, 12(1):47-78.
[25] Moss R L, Tzimas E, Kara H. Critical Metals in Strategic Energy Technologies[R]. Netherlands:JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, 2011.
[26]宋益,黄健柏,钟美瑞.外部性成本内部化视角下战略性矿产资源关税替代性政策研究:以稀土矿为例[J].资源科学, 2018, 40(3):611-622.[Song Y, Huang J B, Zhong M R. Research on tariffs’alternative policy of strategic mineral resources from the perspective of external cost internalization taking rare earth mine as an example[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(3):611-622.]
[27]杨斌清,张贤平.世界稀土生产与消费结构分析[J].稀土, 2014,35(1):110-118.[Yang B Q, Zhang X P. Analysis of global rare earth production and consumption structure[J]. Chinese Rare Earths, 2014, 35(1):110-118.]
[28]阙彬.房地产市场供求非均衡分析[D].成都:西南财经大学,2010.[Que B. The Disequilibrium Analysis with Supply and Demand of Real Estate Market[D]. Chengdu:Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 2010.]
[29]于左,易福欢.中国稀土出口定价权缺失的形成机制分析[J].财贸经济, 2013(5):97-104.[Yu Z, Yi F H. Analysis on formation mechanism of lack of China’s pricing power on rare earth export[J]. Finance&Trade Economics, 2013(5):97-104.]
[30]毛克贞,吴一丁.稀土出口价格与稀土储备[J].有色金属科学与工程, 2012, 3(5):82-88.[Mao K Z, Wu Y D. Rare earth export price and rare earth reserve[J]. Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering, 2012, 3(5):82-88.]
[31]何欢浪.下游进口国家的稀土储备与我国稀土出口政策[J].财经研究, 2014, 40(4):56-64.[He H L. Rare earth reserves of downstream importing countries and rare earth export policy in China[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014, 40(4):56-64.]
[32]王玉珍.我国稀土产业政策效果实证研究[J].宏观经济研究,2015,(2):39-47.[Wang Y Z. Empirical study on the policy effect of China’s rare earth industry[J]. Macroeconomics, 2015,(2):39-47.]
[33]张世英,余国新.中国1953-1979年钢材市场需求和供给分析[J].系统工程, 1993, 11(3):1-6.[Zhang S Y, Yu G X. An analysis of demand and supply for China’s steel market(1953-1979)[J].Systems Engineering, 1993, 11(3):1-6.]
[34] Barro R J, Grossman H I. A general disequilibrium model of income and employment[J]. The American Economic Review, 1971,81(1):82-93.
[35] Burkett P. Informal finance in developing countries:Lesson for the development of formal financial intermediaries[J]. Journal of Economic, 1988, 13(2):81-109.
[36]孙国锋.基于“短边规则”的房地产市场非均衡研究[J].经济学动态, 2010,(5):42-46.[Sun G F. Research on the non-equilibrium of real estate market based on“short edge rules”[J]. Economic Perspectives, 2010,(5):42-46.]
[37]王雪琪.基于非均衡理论的重庆市房地产市场研究[D].重庆:重庆大学, 2015.[Wang X Q. The Research on the Real Estate Market in Chongqing City Based on Disequilibrium Theory[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University, 2015.]
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1)中国稀土供应量占世界比例由美国地质调查局(USGS)数据计算得出,消费量占比情况来源于长江证券部公布数据。
2)稀土氧化物包含了多种元素,但是细分元素数据资料十分匮乏,文中使用REO这一综合指标来进行测算,具有一定的代表性。
3)中国稀土进出口贸易主要以稀土初级产品为主,按照HS编码大体上可分为稀土氧化物(2846)、稀土金属(280530)和其他化合物(2846)。依据本文界定,稀土资源市场供需状况以REO供需总量来衡量,为使估计更有效,文中稀土贸易数据不纳入其他稀土产品。
4)稀土价格为中国稀土氧化物产品的出口均价,即UN Comtrade中HS编码为284610和284690这两类产品的出口价格均值。
5)这里的稀土出口量数据来源于国外网站,其中还包含了黑稀土出口这部分。
6)稀土专利数来源网址:http://www.soopat.com/;全部专利包括发明、实用新型、外观、发明授权。
7)从2015年开始,中国取消稀土出口配额制度,因此2015年和2016年的稀土出口配额量为0。