水库防洪错峰调度风险分析方法及应用
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摘要
水库防洪错峰调度是一种利用下游区间洪水预报信息的防洪预报调度方式,能有效减小水库防洪库容,提高洪水资源利用率,但受区间洪水预报、水库下泄洪水传播时间、调度滞时等不确定因素的影响,水库下游防洪风险的可能性将增加。综合考虑多个不确定因子,采用蒙特卡洛法、风险标准法等,提出了基于错峰调度规则的拟定、风险的定义、风险因子的识别与量化、风险率计算、方案决策过程的水库防洪错峰调度风险分析的流程与方法,并将上述方法应用于海河流域的密云水库。研究结果表明:通过采用提出的防洪错峰调度方案,密云水库能抬高汛限水位2.0 m,减小防洪库容3.09亿m3;而承担的水库防洪错峰调度风险率仅为11%;延长错峰时间能显著降低防洪错峰调度的风险。
Flood peak staggered regulation( FPSR) is a flood forecasting and dispatching method which utilizes downstream flood forecast information. It can effectively reduce the reservoir capacity of flood control,and improve flood resource utilization. However,there is the possibility of increasing flood risk in the lower reaches of the reservoir due to the influence of uncertainties such as interval flood forecasting,flood discharge time of reservoir discharge,and scheduling delay. In this paper,considering multiple uncertain factors,using the Monte Carlo method and the risk standard method,a FPSR risk analysis method is proposed consisting of FPSR rule formulation,risk definition,risk factor identification and quantification,risk rate calculation,scheme decision and so on. The method is applied to Miyun Reservoir of Haihe River Basin. The results show that: by adopting the proposed flood control peak-shifting scheduling scheme,Miyun Reservoir can raise the flood limit water level of 2. 0 m,reduce the flood storage capacity of 309 million m3,while the risk rate is only 11%. Further research shows that prolonging the peak shifting time can significantly reduce the risk of erroneous scheduling.
Flood peak staggered regulation( FPSR) is a flood forecasting and dispatching method which utilizes downstream flood forecast information. It can effectively reduce the reservoir capacity of flood control,and improve flood resource utilization. However,there is the possibility of increasing flood risk in the lower reaches of the reservoir due to the influence of uncertainties such as interval flood forecasting,flood discharge time of reservoir discharge,and scheduling delay. In this paper,considering multiple uncertain factors,using the Monte Carlo method and the risk standard method,a FPSR risk analysis method is proposed consisting of FPSR rule formulation,risk definition,risk factor identification and quantification,risk rate calculation,scheme decision and so on. The method is applied to Miyun Reservoir of Haihe River Basin. The results show that: by adopting the proposed flood control peak-shifting scheduling scheme,Miyun Reservoir can raise the flood limit water level of 2. 0 m,reduce the flood storage capacity of 309 million m3,while the risk rate is only 11%. Further research shows that prolonging the peak shifting time can significantly reduce the risk of erroneous scheduling.
引文
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[8]李整,陈代海,曹宁宁.三角形综合单位线法洪峰预报研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(4):78-82.
[9]廖松.改进密云水库汛期调度方案的途径[J].水文,1996,16(1):10-15.
[10]卢丽,徐千军,保其长,等.密云水库错峰调度的可行性分析[J].水力发电学报,2008,27(2):1-5.
[2]吴如发.隔河岩水库与长江洪水错峰调度研究[J].人民长江,2001,32(1):39-43.
[3]闫宝伟,郭生练.考虑洪水过程预报误差的水库防洪调度风险分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(7):803-807.
[4]吴成国,王义民,金菊良,等.基于三角模糊数的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(4):30-35.
[5]姜树海,范子武.水库防洪预报调度的风险分析[J].水利学报,2004,35(11):102-107.
[6]侯召成,翟宜峰,殷峻暹.水库防洪预报调度风险分析研究[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2005,3(1):16-21.
[7]刁艳芳,王本德.基于不同风险源组合的水库防洪预报调度方式风险分析[J].中国科学:技术科学,2010,40(10):1140-1147.
[8]李整,陈代海,曹宁宁.三角形综合单位线法洪峰预报研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(4):78-82.
[9]廖松.改进密云水库汛期调度方案的途径[J].水文,1996,16(1):10-15.
[10]卢丽,徐千军,保其长,等.密云水库错峰调度的可行性分析[J].水力发电学报,2008,27(2):1-5.