基于模糊综合评价模型的天山北坡经济带水资源承载力评价
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摘要
[目的]综合评价天山北坡经济带水资源承载力,为今后水资源开发利用提供依据。[方法]根据天山北坡经济带水资源现状,构建由3层12项指标组成的综合评价指标体系;基于状态变权向量进行指标权重分配,确定评价标准和两级模糊综合评判模型(FCE),对该经济带水资源承载力进行综合评价。[结果]评价结果显示该经济带乌鲁木齐、石河子、吐鲁番、哈密、塔城、伊犁、克拉玛依、昌吉、博州市的水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.76,0.56,0.45,0.51,0.48。[结论]天山北坡经济带水资源承载力已经达到了一定规模,应通过采取节水技术和产业结构调整等综合措施,提高水资源承载力水平,合理规划并有效利用水资源,为"十三五"天山北坡经济带社会经济发展提供保障。
[Objective]The water resources carrying capacity of the economic belt in the north slope of Tianshan Mountain was eveluated in order to provide the basis for the development and utilization of water resources in the future.[Methods]According to the current situation of water resources in the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountain,a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of three hierarchies and 12 individual evaluation indexes was established.The weight for each evaluation index was determined based on state variable weight vector,and then the evaluation criteria and two-level comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method were developed.[Results]Comprehensive score of water resources carrying capacity of Urumqi,Shihezi,Turpan,Hami,Tacheng,Yili,Karamay,Changji and Bozhou cities was 0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.76,0.56,0.45,0.51 and 0.48,respectively.[Conclusion]The carrying capacity of water resources in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain has reached a certain scale.Comprehensive measuressuch as water-saving technology and industrial structure adjustment should be adopted to improve the water resources carrying capacity.Rational plan and effective utilization of water resources will promote the social and economic development on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains during the "13 th five-year plan".
[Objective]The water resources carrying capacity of the economic belt in the north slope of Tianshan Mountain was eveluated in order to provide the basis for the development and utilization of water resources in the future.[Methods]According to the current situation of water resources in the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountain,a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of three hierarchies and 12 individual evaluation indexes was established.The weight for each evaluation index was determined based on state variable weight vector,and then the evaluation criteria and two-level comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method were developed.[Results]Comprehensive score of water resources carrying capacity of Urumqi,Shihezi,Turpan,Hami,Tacheng,Yili,Karamay,Changji and Bozhou cities was 0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.76,0.56,0.45,0.51 and 0.48,respectively.[Conclusion]The carrying capacity of water resources in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain has reached a certain scale.Comprehensive measuressuch as water-saving technology and industrial structure adjustment should be adopted to improve the water resources carrying capacity.Rational plan and effective utilization of water resources will promote the social and economic development on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains during the "13 th five-year plan".
引文
[1]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.
[2]许有鹏.干旱区水资源承载能力综合评价研究:以新疆和田河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(3):229-237.
[3]李吉玫.伊犁河流域水资源承载力的综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(3):39-43.
[4]张占江,李吉玫,石书兵.阿克苏河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):138-143.
[5]杨广,何新林,付杨,等.玛纳斯河流域水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].人民黄河,2009,31(1):55-56.
[6]董雯,刘志辉.艾比湖流域水资源承载力综合评价[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(2):217-223.
[7]王暄.基于模糊综合评判法的塔里木河流域水资源承载力评价[J].广东水利水电,2010(8):46-48.
[8]段新光,栾芳芳.基于模糊综合评判的新疆水资源承载力评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24,(S1):119-122.
[9]向秀容.基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):875-884.
[10]新疆统计局.新疆统计年鉴[M.].乌鲁木齐:新疆统计出版社,2012.
[11]张新时.天山北部山地—绿洲—过渡带—荒漠系统的生态建设与可持续农业范式[J].植物学报:英文版,2001,43(12):1294-1299.
[12]雷艳娇,葛强.云南省地市(州)水资源承载力模糊综合评判[J].人民珠江,2016,37(4):21-24.
[13]乔长录,刘昭.干旱区流域水文生态系统质量综合评价研究:以新疆自治区玛纳斯河流域为例[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(2):215-221.
[14]王根绪,程国栋,徐中民.中国西北干旱区水资源利用及其生态环境问题[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(2):109-116.
[15]冯兰刚,焦彦臣,都沁军.基于AHP的河北省水资源承载能力分析[J].工业技术经济,2009,28(7):90-93.
[16]蒋春林.基于模糊综合评判模型的区域水资源承载力评价[J].水利科技与经济,2015,21(12):1-3.
[17]张占江,李吉玫,石书兵.阿克苏河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):138-143.
[18]卜楠楠,唐德善,尹笋.基于AHP法的浙江省水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2012(3):42-44.
[19]荣跃,刘志斌,冯吉燕.基于模糊聚类分析的地下水环境质量评价[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006(S2):309-311.
[20]韩小孩,张耀辉,孙福军,等.基于主成分分析的指标权重确定方法[J].兵器装备工程学报,2012,33(10):124-126.
[21]宋丹丹,郭辉.新疆水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].新疆师范大学学报:自然科学版,2014(4):1-8.
[2]许有鹏.干旱区水资源承载能力综合评价研究:以新疆和田河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(3):229-237.
[3]李吉玫.伊犁河流域水资源承载力的综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(3):39-43.
[4]张占江,李吉玫,石书兵.阿克苏河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):138-143.
[5]杨广,何新林,付杨,等.玛纳斯河流域水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].人民黄河,2009,31(1):55-56.
[6]董雯,刘志辉.艾比湖流域水资源承载力综合评价[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(2):217-223.
[7]王暄.基于模糊综合评判法的塔里木河流域水资源承载力评价[J].广东水利水电,2010(8):46-48.
[8]段新光,栾芳芳.基于模糊综合评判的新疆水资源承载力评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24,(S1):119-122.
[9]向秀容.基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):875-884.
[10]新疆统计局.新疆统计年鉴[M.].乌鲁木齐:新疆统计出版社,2012.
[11]张新时.天山北部山地—绿洲—过渡带—荒漠系统的生态建设与可持续农业范式[J].植物学报:英文版,2001,43(12):1294-1299.
[12]雷艳娇,葛强.云南省地市(州)水资源承载力模糊综合评判[J].人民珠江,2016,37(4):21-24.
[13]乔长录,刘昭.干旱区流域水文生态系统质量综合评价研究:以新疆自治区玛纳斯河流域为例[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(2):215-221.
[14]王根绪,程国栋,徐中民.中国西北干旱区水资源利用及其生态环境问题[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(2):109-116.
[15]冯兰刚,焦彦臣,都沁军.基于AHP的河北省水资源承载能力分析[J].工业技术经济,2009,28(7):90-93.
[16]蒋春林.基于模糊综合评判模型的区域水资源承载力评价[J].水利科技与经济,2015,21(12):1-3.
[17]张占江,李吉玫,石书兵.阿克苏河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):138-143.
[18]卜楠楠,唐德善,尹笋.基于AHP法的浙江省水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2012(3):42-44.
[19]荣跃,刘志斌,冯吉燕.基于模糊聚类分析的地下水环境质量评价[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006(S2):309-311.
[20]韩小孩,张耀辉,孙福军,等.基于主成分分析的指标权重确定方法[J].兵器装备工程学报,2012,33(10):124-126.
[21]宋丹丹,郭辉.新疆水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].新疆师范大学学报:自然科学版,2014(4):1-8.