基于等可靠度法的变化环境下工程水文设计值估计方法
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摘要
气候变化及人类活动影响的加剧,改变了水文极值系列产生的平稳性条件,给现行水文频率分析计算方法带来挑战,亟需发展非平稳性条件下的水文频率分析理论与方法。讨论了等可靠度法的基本思想,拓宽了该方法在变化环境下工程水文设计方面的应用,以解决变化环境下工程水文设计值中的两类问题:(1)对于待建工程,依据非平稳性的水文极值系列,如何推求给定标准的设计值;(2)对于已建工程,如何协调/调整已建工程的洪水设计值,以适应变化环境对其产生的影响。以黄龙滩1956—2014年共59年的15日洪量系列为对象,对等可靠度法进行应用示例研究,并分析了参数估计不确定性对水文设计值的影响。结果表明,在非一致性条件下,给定设计标准下的水文设计值随着工程设计使用年限的变化而变化,且设计值估计的不确定性随着工程设计使用年限的增加而增大。
The intensified impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities has changed the stationary characteristics of the hydrological extreme series,thus posing a challenge on the Traditional Hydrological Frequency Analysis( THFA) method. Therefore,a new theory and approach is required for analyzing non-stationary hydrological frequency. In this paper,further discussions are conducted about the fundamental idea of Equivalent Reliability( ER) approach,and ER application for the design flood estimation under a changing environment has been expanded. The ER approach is expected to address two key issues:(1) to estimate the design flood with a given design standard for a project yet to be constructed;(2) to adjust the design flood for an already constructed project for its adaptation to the changing conditions. The 59 years of 15-day flood volume series from 1956 to 2014 is used to demonstrate the ER approach,and analysis is conducted for the impact of parameter uncertainty on design flood. The results show that the design flood with a given return period under non-stationary conditions varies with the engineering design lifetime,and the uncertainty of the design flood estimation increases when the engineering design lifetime extends.
The intensified impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities has changed the stationary characteristics of the hydrological extreme series,thus posing a challenge on the Traditional Hydrological Frequency Analysis( THFA) method. Therefore,a new theory and approach is required for analyzing non-stationary hydrological frequency. In this paper,further discussions are conducted about the fundamental idea of Equivalent Reliability( ER) approach,and ER application for the design flood estimation under a changing environment has been expanded. The ER approach is expected to address two key issues:(1) to estimate the design flood with a given design standard for a project yet to be constructed;(2) to adjust the design flood for an already constructed project for its adaptation to the changing conditions. The 59 years of 15-day flood volume series from 1956 to 2014 is used to demonstrate the ER approach,and analysis is conducted for the impact of parameter uncertainty on design flood. The results show that the design flood with a given return period under non-stationary conditions varies with the engineering design lifetime,and the uncertainty of the design flood estimation increases when the engineering design lifetime extends.
引文
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[2]贺瑞敏,张建云,鲍振鑫,等.海河流域河川径流对气候变化的响应机理[J].水科学进展,2015,26(1):1-9.(HE R M,ZHANG J Y,BAO Z X,et al.Response of runoff to climate change in the Haihe River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(1):1-9.(in Chinese))
[3]张树磊,杨大文,杨汉波,等.1960—2010年中国主要流域径流量减小原因探讨分析[J].水科学进展,2015,26(5):605-613.(ZHANG S L,YANG D W,YANG H B,et al.Analysis of the dominant causes for runoff reduction in five major basins over China during 1960—2010[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(5):605-613.(in Chinese))
[4]MILLY P C D,BETANCOURT J,FALKENMARK M,et al.Stationarity is dead:whither water management[J].Science,2009,319:573-574.
[5]梁忠民,胡义明,王军.非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2011,22(6):864-871.(LIANG Z M,HU Y M,WANG J.Advances in hydrological frequency analysis of non-stationary time series[J].Advances in Water Science,2011,22(6):864-871.(in Chinese))
[6]谢平,陈广才,雷红富.变化环境下基于趋势分析的水资源评价方法.[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(2):14-19.(XIE P,CHEN G C,LEI H F.Hydrological frequency calculation principle of inconsistent annual runoff series under changing environments[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2005,28(2):14-19.(in Chinese))
[7]冯平,曾杭,李新.混合分布在非一致性洪水频率分析的应用[J].天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版),2013,46(4):298-303.(FENG P,ZENG H,LIN X.Non-stationary flood-frequency analysis based on mixed distribution[J].Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology),2013,46(4):298-303.(in Chinese))
[8]胡义明,梁忠民,杨好周,等.基于趋势分析的非一致性水文频率分析方法研究[J].水力发电学报.2013,31(5):21-25.(HU Y M,LIANG Z M,YANG H Z,et al.Study on frequency analysis method of non-stationary observation series based on trend analysis[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,31(5):21-25.(in Chinese))
[9]DU T,XIONG L H,XU C Y,et al.Return period and risk analysis of nonstationary low-flow series under climate change[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:234-250.
[10]GILROY K L,MCCUEN R H.A nonstationary flood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization[J].Journal of Hydrology,2012,414/415(1):40-48.
[11]LOPEZ J,FRANCES F.Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2013,17:3189-3203.
[12]SALAS J D,OBEYSEKERA J.Revisiting the concepts of return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,19(3):554-568.
[13]PAREY S,HOANG T T H,DACUNHA-CASTELLE D.Different ways to compute temperature return levels in the climate changecontext[J].Environmetrics,2007,21:698-718.
[14]READ L K,VOGEL R M.Reliability,return periods,and risk under nonstationarity[J].Water Resources Research,2015,51(8):6381-6398.
[15]梁忠民,胡义明,黄华平,等.非一致性条件下水文设计值估计方法探讨[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(1):52-56.(LIANG Z M,HU Y M,HUANG H P,et al.Study on the estimation of design value under non-stationary environment[J].South to North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(1):52-56.(in Chinese))