基于SD的海岸带污染负荷预测及污染经济损失研究——以江门市为例
|
摘要
基于系统动力学原理和方法,耦合水污染负荷及"浓度-损失"模型,建立2006~2015年江门市海岸带水污染系统模型,并仿真预测4种发展情景:现状趋势发展型(S1)、人口经济发展型(S2)、产业优化及治污减排型(S3)、综合协调型(S4)下,2016~2020年的海岸带水污染负荷及污染经济损失。结果显示:1)4种发展情景下,江门市海岸带COD、氨氮、总磷均主要来自农业污染,其次为生活污染;2)S4情景为最优方案,海岸带污染负荷得到控制和削减,海洋污染经济损失最低,2020年江门市海岸带污染总负荷和污染经济损失比现状发展情景分别减少7.9%、17.7%。可见,在合理的人口经济发展下,通过对产业结构优化、加大污染治理和环保投入等可有效降低海岸带污染负荷及污染损失。本研究可为江门市海岸带水污染合理控制与管理提供定量化参考,为江门市等滨海城市社会、经济和环境协调发展提供借鉴。
Base on system dynamics coupled with water pollution load model and concentration-loss model,the coastal zone water pollution system model was established to simulate water pollution load and economic loss in the Jiangmen coastal zone from 2006 to 2015. Four development scenarios: development under the current trend( S1),rapid development in population and economic( S2),industrial optimization and pollution control( S3),comprehensive scenario( S4),are simulated,in order to predict the potential pollution load and economic loss from the year 2016 to 2020. Results show that: 1) For all the four development scenarios,agricultural pollution mainly contribute to the pollutants of COD,NH3-N and TP in Jiangmen coastal zone,while domestic pollution is the second source; 2) Scenario of S4 will be the best,in which the coastal zone pollution load will be controlled and marine pollution economic loss will be the minimal; The total pollution load and economic loss will be decreased by 7. 9% and 17. 7%,compared to S1,respectively. Therefore,under the circumstances of reasonable constraint of population and economic development,coastal pollution load and pollution economic loss can be effectively reduced by industrial structure optimization and increasing investment in pollution control and environmental protection. This study not only provides quantitative reference tothe control and management of water pollution for Jiangmen,but provides reference for the harmonious development of society,economy and environment of other coastal cities like Jiangmen city.
Base on system dynamics coupled with water pollution load model and concentration-loss model,the coastal zone water pollution system model was established to simulate water pollution load and economic loss in the Jiangmen coastal zone from 2006 to 2015. Four development scenarios: development under the current trend( S1),rapid development in population and economic( S2),industrial optimization and pollution control( S3),comprehensive scenario( S4),are simulated,in order to predict the potential pollution load and economic loss from the year 2016 to 2020. Results show that: 1) For all the four development scenarios,agricultural pollution mainly contribute to the pollutants of COD,NH3-N and TP in Jiangmen coastal zone,while domestic pollution is the second source; 2) Scenario of S4 will be the best,in which the coastal zone pollution load will be controlled and marine pollution economic loss will be the minimal; The total pollution load and economic loss will be decreased by 7. 9% and 17. 7%,compared to S1,respectively. Therefore,under the circumstances of reasonable constraint of population and economic development,coastal pollution load and pollution economic loss can be effectively reduced by industrial structure optimization and increasing investment in pollution control and environmental protection. This study not only provides quantitative reference tothe control and management of water pollution for Jiangmen,but provides reference for the harmonious development of society,economy and environment of other coastal cities like Jiangmen city.
引文
[1]付青,吴险峰.我国陆源污染物入海量及污染防治策略[J].中央民族大学学报:自然科学版,2006,15(3):213-217.
[2]王红莉,姜国强,陶建华.海岸带污染负荷预测模型及其在渤海湾的应用[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(3):307-312.
[3]陈克亮,朱晓东,王金坑,等.厦门市海岸带水污染负荷估算及预测[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(9):2091-2096.
[4]GILLIAND M W,BAXTER-POTTER W.Ageographic information system to predict non-point source pollution[J].Water Resources Bulletin,1987,23(2):281-291.
[5]SINGH J,KNAPP H V,AMOLD J G,et al.Hydrological modeling of Iroquois river watershed using HSPF and SWAT[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2005,41(2):343-360.
[6]ALEXANDER R B,SMITH R A,SCHWARZ G E,et al.Differences in phosphorus and nitrogen delivery to the gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi river basin[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2008,42(3):822-830.
[7]李怀恩.估算非点源污染负荷的平均浓度法及其应用[J].环境科学学报,2000,20(4):397-400.
[8]麻德明,彭文,池源,等.海岛非点源污染负荷估算方法研究[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(10):3150-3158.
[9]王慧亮,孙志琢,李叙勇,等.非点源污染负荷模型的比较与选择[J].环境科学与技术,2013,36(5):176-182.
[10]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1995:5-6.
[11]ZARGHAMI M,AKBARIYEH S.System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems:Application to the city of Tabriz,Iran.Resources[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2012,60:99-106.
[12]KOTIR J H,SMITH C,BROWN G.A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin,Ghana[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,573:444-457.
[13]LIU H,BENOIT G,LIU T,et al.An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2015,155:11-23.
[14]程静,贾天下,欧阳威.基于STELLA和输出系数法的流域非点源负荷预测及污染控制措施[J].水资源保护,2017,33(3):74-81.
[15]覃超梅,孙凯峰,赵庄明,等.江门市近岸海域春季环境质量评价[J].环境污染与防治,2016,38(12):65-71.
[16]熊鹰,李静芝,蒋丁玲.基于仿真模拟的长株潭城市群水资源供需系统决策优化[J].地理学报,2013,68(9):1225-1239.
[17]蔡明,李怀恩,庄咏涛,等.改进的输出系数法在流域非点源污染负荷估算中的应用[J].水利学报,2004,35(7):40-45.
[18]詹姆斯L D,李R R.水资源规划经济学[M].常锡厚,译.北京:水利电力出版社,1984:255-257.
[19]朱发庆,高冠民,李国,等.东湖水污染经济损失研究[J].环境科学学报,1993,13(2):214-222.
[20]蔡美芳,李开明,姜国强.海洋环境保护经济损益评估——以珠江口及毗邻海域为例[J].海洋环境科学,2011,30(3):435-439.
[21]GB 18596-2001,畜禽养殖业污染物排放标准[S].
[22]刘爱萍,刘晓文,陈中颖,等.珠江三角洲地区城镇生活污染源调查及其排污总量核算[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(S1):53-57.
[23]黄洪辉,戴明,陈海刚,等.江门市近岸海域环境与污染现状调查[M].北京:海洋出版社,2012:35-60.
[24]麻德明,石洪华,丰爱平.基于流域单元的海湾农业非点源污染负荷估算—以莱州湾为例[J].生态学报,2014,34(1):173-181.
[2]王红莉,姜国强,陶建华.海岸带污染负荷预测模型及其在渤海湾的应用[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(3):307-312.
[3]陈克亮,朱晓东,王金坑,等.厦门市海岸带水污染负荷估算及预测[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(9):2091-2096.
[4]GILLIAND M W,BAXTER-POTTER W.Ageographic information system to predict non-point source pollution[J].Water Resources Bulletin,1987,23(2):281-291.
[5]SINGH J,KNAPP H V,AMOLD J G,et al.Hydrological modeling of Iroquois river watershed using HSPF and SWAT[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2005,41(2):343-360.
[6]ALEXANDER R B,SMITH R A,SCHWARZ G E,et al.Differences in phosphorus and nitrogen delivery to the gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi river basin[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2008,42(3):822-830.
[7]李怀恩.估算非点源污染负荷的平均浓度法及其应用[J].环境科学学报,2000,20(4):397-400.
[8]麻德明,彭文,池源,等.海岛非点源污染负荷估算方法研究[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(10):3150-3158.
[9]王慧亮,孙志琢,李叙勇,等.非点源污染负荷模型的比较与选择[J].环境科学与技术,2013,36(5):176-182.
[10]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1995:5-6.
[11]ZARGHAMI M,AKBARIYEH S.System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems:Application to the city of Tabriz,Iran.Resources[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2012,60:99-106.
[12]KOTIR J H,SMITH C,BROWN G.A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin,Ghana[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,573:444-457.
[13]LIU H,BENOIT G,LIU T,et al.An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2015,155:11-23.
[14]程静,贾天下,欧阳威.基于STELLA和输出系数法的流域非点源负荷预测及污染控制措施[J].水资源保护,2017,33(3):74-81.
[15]覃超梅,孙凯峰,赵庄明,等.江门市近岸海域春季环境质量评价[J].环境污染与防治,2016,38(12):65-71.
[16]熊鹰,李静芝,蒋丁玲.基于仿真模拟的长株潭城市群水资源供需系统决策优化[J].地理学报,2013,68(9):1225-1239.
[17]蔡明,李怀恩,庄咏涛,等.改进的输出系数法在流域非点源污染负荷估算中的应用[J].水利学报,2004,35(7):40-45.
[18]詹姆斯L D,李R R.水资源规划经济学[M].常锡厚,译.北京:水利电力出版社,1984:255-257.
[19]朱发庆,高冠民,李国,等.东湖水污染经济损失研究[J].环境科学学报,1993,13(2):214-222.
[20]蔡美芳,李开明,姜国强.海洋环境保护经济损益评估——以珠江口及毗邻海域为例[J].海洋环境科学,2011,30(3):435-439.
[21]GB 18596-2001,畜禽养殖业污染物排放标准[S].
[22]刘爱萍,刘晓文,陈中颖,等.珠江三角洲地区城镇生活污染源调查及其排污总量核算[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(S1):53-57.
[23]黄洪辉,戴明,陈海刚,等.江门市近岸海域环境与污染现状调查[M].北京:海洋出版社,2012:35-60.
[24]麻德明,石洪华,丰爱平.基于流域单元的海湾农业非点源污染负荷估算—以莱州湾为例[J].生态学报,2014,34(1):173-181.