成品油管道泄漏量测算误差及敏感性分析
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摘要
为了提高成品油管道泄漏量测算的准确性,对用于成品油管道泄漏量测算的输入参数进行了误差分析,包括管道运营数据的时间滞后误差、运营数据的数值误差、管道内径的数值误差以及油品物性的数值误差。通过泄漏量参数敏感性分析发现,管道泄漏量对流量的敏感程度最低;管道泄漏量变化率与时间滞后率、压力变化率、内径变化率呈正相关,与流量变化率呈负相关,在不同的参数变化率范围内,管道泄漏量对各参数的敏感性不同。
In order to improve the accuracy of leakage volume calculation of product oil pipelines, the error analysis of the input parameters used to calculate the leakage volume of product oil pipelines is carried out, including the time lag error of the pipeline operation data, the numerical error of the pipeline inner diameter and the numerical error of the oil physical properties. Through the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters, it is found that the leakage volume is the least sensitive to flow rate. The variation rate of pipeline leakage is positively correlated with time lag rate, pressure change rate and inner diameter change rate, while it is negatively correlated with flowrate change rate. The sensitivity of pipeline leakage volume to each input parameter is different within the range of variation rate of parameters.
In order to improve the accuracy of leakage volume calculation of product oil pipelines, the error analysis of the input parameters used to calculate the leakage volume of product oil pipelines is carried out, including the time lag error of the pipeline operation data, the numerical error of the pipeline inner diameter and the numerical error of the oil physical properties. Through the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters, it is found that the leakage volume is the least sensitive to flow rate. The variation rate of pipeline leakage is positively correlated with time lag rate, pressure change rate and inner diameter change rate, while it is negatively correlated with flowrate change rate. The sensitivity of pipeline leakage volume to each input parameter is different within the range of variation rate of parameters.
引文
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[3] Oh S W,Yoon D B,Kim G J,et al. Acoustic data condensation to enhance pipeline leak detection[J]Nuclear Engineering and Design,2018,327:198-211.
[4]纪健,李玉星,纪杰,等.声波传感技术在多相流管道泄漏检测中的应用[J].油气储运,2018,37(5):493-500.
[5]纪健,李玉星,纪杰,等.基于光纤传感的管道泄漏检测技术对比[J].油气储运,2018,37(4):368-377.
[6]孙启昌.声波泄漏检测系统在高含硫天然气管道的应用[J].管道技术与设备,2017(1):20-22.
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[8] He G X,Liang Y T,Li Y S,et al. A method for simulating the entire leaking process and calculating the liquid leakage volume of a damaged pressurized pipeline[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,2017,332:19-32.
[9]何国玺,梁永图,李岩松,等.成品油管道打孔盗油量测算方法[J].石油科学通报,2017,2(1):86-101.
[10]吴梦雨,梁永图,何国玺,等.成品油管道泄漏量测算软件[J].石油化工高等学校学报,2017,30(2):71-76.
[11]聂平,邓松圣,文俊.管道泄漏水力瞬变模拟研究[J].油气储运,2006,25(7):19-22.
[12]葛岚,吴明,赵玲,等.埋地天然气管道泄漏扩散数值模拟[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2014,34(5):19-22.
[13]齐晗兵,李东海,邢永强,等.影响埋地输油管道泄漏介质迁移两种因素分析[J].当代化工,2017,46(5):894-897.
[14]张玉恒.成品油管道中液体超声波流量计的应用及在线标定[J].仪器仪表用户,2018,25(1):46-49.