秦岭南部一季稻区水热条件变化时空特征分析
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摘要
秦岭作为我国地理分界线和气候过渡带,对气候变化敏感,研究其水热条件变化对因地制宜发展本区水稻,保障该区水稻稳定生产具有重要意义。基于1960-2016年秦岭南部37个气象站点逐日观测数据,通过线性趋势估计、气候倾向率、空间插值等分析方法,研究秦岭南部一季稻生长季内水热条件时空变化特征,结果表明:(1)近57年秦岭南部热量资源呈增加趋势,水资源和光资源呈减少趋势;特别是1988年以来研究区升温更为明显,以暖干气候特征为主,但有向暖湿变化的趋势,光照条件相对改善。(2)秦岭南部一季稻生长季平均气温和≥10℃积温多年平均值自南向北递减分布,高温热害强度(7-8月)自西南向东北递减,日较差自中部向东西部减少;生长季降水量自南向北减少,穗分化期降水量自西向东呈多-少-多分布,干燥指数自西南向东北递增;生长季日照时数自西南向东北递增,结实期日照时数自西向东递增。(3)秦岭南部一季稻生长季平均气温和≥10℃积温高值区增幅较小,低值区增幅较大,西部受高温热害强度较大,日较差低值区趋于减少,高值区趋于增加;生长季和穗分化期的降水量空间倾向率变化复杂,整体上多雨区趋于干旱,少雨区趋于湿润,干燥指数空间倾向率东部在降低,西部在升高;光照条件空间倾向率均表现为减少趋势。综合以上分析结果对秦岭南部一季稻耕作具有一定的实践指导价值。
The research of Qinling's climatic condition variations is significant for the development of rice based on local conditions and the guarantee for stable rice production,because the Qinling,one of geographical boundaries and climate transition zones in China,is sensitive to climate changes.Based on daily data of 37 meteorological stations in the south of the Qinling Mountains from 1960 to 2016 and the methods of linear trend,climatic trend rate and spatial interpolation,the paper researched temporal and spatial variations of climatic conditions during the growth period of single-season rice.The results are as follows:(1) The heat resources tended to increase,the water and light resources tended to decrease in the past 57 years in the south of the Qinling Mountains.Especially since 1988,the temperature has become obviously higher and the climate has become warm and wet,and the lighting conditions have been relatively improved.(2)The average temperature and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature and the precipitation gradually reduced from south to north in the study area.The heat injure intensity(in July and August)gradually reduced from southwest to northeast,the drying index and sunshine hours were contrary to it.The diurnal range gradually reduced and the precipitation in the spike differentiation period increased from center to east and west.The sunshine hours of the fructicative period gradually increased from west to east.(3) There were a small increment of the high value region of the average temperature and ≥10 ℃accumulated temperature and a large increment of the low value region.The heat injure intensity was higher in the west of the study area.There were a smaller decrement of the low value region of the diurnal range and a large increment of the high value region.The spatial variation of precipitation was complicated,the rainy areas tended to be dry and the less rainy areas tended to be moist.The climatic trend rate of the dry index decreased in the east while rised in the west.The climatic trend rate of the light conditions decreased.The above results have a practical guiding value for the single-season rice cultivation in the south of the Qinling Mountains.
The research of Qinling's climatic condition variations is significant for the development of rice based on local conditions and the guarantee for stable rice production,because the Qinling,one of geographical boundaries and climate transition zones in China,is sensitive to climate changes.Based on daily data of 37 meteorological stations in the south of the Qinling Mountains from 1960 to 2016 and the methods of linear trend,climatic trend rate and spatial interpolation,the paper researched temporal and spatial variations of climatic conditions during the growth period of single-season rice.The results are as follows:(1) The heat resources tended to increase,the water and light resources tended to decrease in the past 57 years in the south of the Qinling Mountains.Especially since 1988,the temperature has become obviously higher and the climate has become warm and wet,and the lighting conditions have been relatively improved.(2)The average temperature and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature and the precipitation gradually reduced from south to north in the study area.The heat injure intensity(in July and August)gradually reduced from southwest to northeast,the drying index and sunshine hours were contrary to it.The diurnal range gradually reduced and the precipitation in the spike differentiation period increased from center to east and west.The sunshine hours of the fructicative period gradually increased from west to east.(3) There were a small increment of the high value region of the average temperature and ≥10 ℃accumulated temperature and a large increment of the low value region.The heat injure intensity was higher in the west of the study area.There were a smaller decrement of the low value region of the diurnal range and a large increment of the high value region.The spatial variation of precipitation was complicated,the rainy areas tended to be dry and the less rainy areas tended to be moist.The climatic trend rate of the dry index decreased in the east while rised in the west.The climatic trend rate of the light conditions decreased.The above results have a practical guiding value for the single-season rice cultivation in the south of the Qinling Mountains.
引文
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[2]杨强,郑西楠,何立恒.基于Had CM3模式的我国主要气候区划界线时空预测研究[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):17-25.YANG Q,ZHENG X N,HE L H.Spatial-temporal shift for major boundry of climate regionalization based on meteorological data stimulated by Had CM3 during from 1950-2059in China[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(1):17-25.
[3]刘珍环,李正国,唐鹏钦,等.近30年中国水稻种植区域与产量时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(5):680-692.LIU Z H,LI Z G,TANG P Q,et al.Spatial-temporal change of rice area and production in China during 1980-2010[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(5):680-692.
[4]TAUFIQ Y,HANDOKOB I.The effect of temperature rise to rice yield in Indonesia uses shierary rice model with geographical information system feature[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2016,33:214-220.
[5]NGUYEN T C,ATTACHAI J,PANOMSAK P.Impacts of seasonal climate variability on rice production in the central highlands of Vietnam[J].Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia,2015(5):83-88.
[6]KIMA A D,TRAORE S,WANG Y M,et al.Multi-genes programing and local scale regression for analyzing rice yield response to climate factors using observed and downscaled data in Sahel[J].Agricultural Water Management,2014,146:149-162.
[7]SHANTHA N,SVK J,ASHARI P,et al.Local climate affects growth,yield and grain quality of aromatic and non-aromatic rice in northwestern India[J].Agriculture,Ecosystem&Environment,2010,138:274-281.
[8]沈陈华.气象因子对江苏省水稻单产的影响[J].生态学报,2015,35(12):4155-4167.SHEN C H.Meteorological effects on rice yield in Jiangsu Province[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(12):4155-4167.
[9]谭诗琪.气候与粮食生产要素对我国单季稻和冬小麦单产贡献率研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2016.TAN S Q.A study on contribution rate of climate and production factors impact on single cropping rice and winter wheat unit area yield in our country[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,2016.
[10]侯雯嘉,耿婷,陈群,等.近20年气候变暖对东北水稻生育期和产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(1):249-259.HOU W J,GENG T,CHEN Q,et al.Impact of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Noetheast China recent two decades[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(1):249-259.
[11]余会康,郭建平.气候变化下东北水稻冷害时空分布变化[J].中国生态农业学报,2014.22(5):594-601.YU H K,GUO J P.Variation in spatial and temporal distribution of chilling injury of rice under climate change in Noetheast China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014.22(5):594-601.
[12]叶清,杨晓光,解文娟,等.气候变暖背景下中国南方水稻生长季可利用率变化趋势[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(21):4399-4415.YE Q,YANG X G,XIE W J,et al.Tendency of use efficiency of rice growth season in Sounthern China under the background of global warming[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013,46(21):4399-4415.
[13]王品,魏星,张朝,等.气候变化背景下水稻低温冷害与高温热害的研究进展[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2316-2326.WANG P,WEI X,ZHANG C,et al.A review of cold injury and heat damage to rice growth under global warming[J].Resources Science,2014,36(11):2316-2326.
[14]沙修竹,申双和,陶苏林.长江中下游地区一季稻高温热害风险评估与区划[J].江苏农业学报,2015,31(5):1053-1059.SHA X Z,SHEN S H,TAO S L.Risk assessment and regionalization of heat injury for single-season rice in Middle and Lower Yangtze River[J].Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Science,2015,31(5):1053-1059.
[15]Tan S,Shen S,Deng L.Effects of high-temperature damage on rice growth and its countermeasures[J].Agronomy and Horticultrue,2016,17(9):2060-2066.
[16]白红英,马新萍,高翔,等.基于DEM的秦岭山地1月气温及0℃等温线变化[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1443-1450.BAI H Y,MA X P,GAO X,et al.Variations in January temperature and 0℃isothermal curve in Qinling Mountains based on DEM[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(11):1443-1450.
[17]李双双,杨赛霓,刘宪锋.1960-2013年秦岭-淮河南北极端降水时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3):354-363.LI S S,YANG S N,LIU X F.Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in north and south of the QinlingHuaihe region and influencing factors during 1960-2013[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(3):354-363.
[18]蒋冲,朱枫,杨陈,等.秦岭南北地区光合有效辐射时空变化及突变特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(3):435-446.JIANG C,ZHU F,YANG C,et al.Distribution and change of photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains,China[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(3):435-446.
[19]周旗,卞娟娟,郑景云.秦岭南北1951-2009年的气温与热量资源变化[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1211-1217.ZHOU Q,BIAN J J,ZHRNG J Y.Variation of air temperature and thermal resources in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains from 1951 to 2009[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1211-1217.
[20]胡立勇,丁艳锋.作物栽培学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008:113-166.
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