基于机械故障精细分析的引水隧洞施工进度仿真
|
摘要
现有考虑机械故障的施工进度仿真研究均采用机械的整个故障时长来反映故障影响,忽略了故障机械未能在原单元活动结束前完成维修,且剩余故障处理活动不影响施工进度的情况,因此难以保证施工机械故障分析的准确性.本研究对引水隧洞施工机械因故障退出工作、维修后重新投入使用的全过程进行精细模拟追踪,提出基于机械故障精细分析的引水隧洞施工进度仿真方法.首先,在仿真过程中追踪各施工机械的运行轨迹,并确定机械故障时刻;其次,通过分析故障处理时间与剩余单元活动的关系,确定机械故障类型;再者,推导不同机械故障类型下单元活动延误时间的计算公式,以精细分析机械故障的影响后果;最后,通过施工仿真方法获得机械故障影响下的隧洞开挖进度,并通过敏感性分析获得不同施工机械故障对进度影响的敏感指数.研究结果表明,相较于现有考虑机械故障的施工进度仿真方法,该方法可在精细分析施工机械故障的基础上,获得更符合工程实际的仿真进度.
The existing construction schedule simulation,which considered machine failure,utilized the whole troubleshooting time to reflect the impact of the machine failure. These studies ignore the situation of failure to complete maintenance work before the end of the original unit operation,and the remaining fault handling activities do not affect schedule;this consequently affects the accuracy of machine breakdown analysis. In this study,fine simulation and tracking of the whole process of machine withdrawal from work due to failure and reinstallment after repair are performed,and an approach for simulating the construction schedule of diversion tunnel based on fine analysis of machine breakdowns is proposed. First,the working trajectory of each machine was tracked during simulation,and the failure moment could be determined. The machine failure type could be determined by analyzing the relationship between troubleshooting duration and the remaining original operation. In addition,formulas for calculating the operation delay caused by two types of machine breakdown were derived to realize the fine analysis of failure consequences. Finally,construction schedule considering machine breakdowns was obtained with the construction simulation method,and the sensitivity index of diverse machine failures on construction schedule was obtained through sensitivity analysis. Compared with current construction schedule simulation methods,the proposed approach can realize fine analysis of machine failure and obtain a simulation schedule that is more in line with actual schedule.
The existing construction schedule simulation,which considered machine failure,utilized the whole troubleshooting time to reflect the impact of the machine failure. These studies ignore the situation of failure to complete maintenance work before the end of the original unit operation,and the remaining fault handling activities do not affect schedule;this consequently affects the accuracy of machine breakdown analysis. In this study,fine simulation and tracking of the whole process of machine withdrawal from work due to failure and reinstallment after repair are performed,and an approach for simulating the construction schedule of diversion tunnel based on fine analysis of machine breakdowns is proposed. First,the working trajectory of each machine was tracked during simulation,and the failure moment could be determined. The machine failure type could be determined by analyzing the relationship between troubleshooting duration and the remaining original operation. In addition,formulas for calculating the operation delay caused by two types of machine breakdown were derived to realize the fine analysis of failure consequences. Finally,construction schedule considering machine breakdowns was obtained with the construction simulation method,and the sensitivity index of diverse machine failures on construction schedule was obtained through sensitivity analysis. Compared with current construction schedule simulation methods,the proposed approach can realize fine analysis of machine failure and obtain a simulation schedule that is more in line with actual schedule.
引文
[1]Zhong D H,Bi L,Yu J,et al.Robustness analysis of underground powerhouse construction simulation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method[J].Science China,2016,59(2):252-264.
[2]李明超,段志龙.耦合风险因素的大型地下厂房施工进度仿真分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2014,34(5):39-44.Li Mingchao,Duan Zhilong.Construction scheduling simulation integrated with risks of large-scale underground powerhouse[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2014,34(5):39-44(in Chinese).
[3]Rostami J,Farrokh E,Laughton C,et al.Advance rate simulation for hard rock TBMs[J].KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering,2014,18(3):837-852.
[4]毕磊.基于不确定性分析的地下洞室群施工进度仿真分析与优化研究[D].天津:天津大学建筑工程学院,2015.Bi Lei.Research on Construction Schedule Simulation Analysis and Optimization of Underground Powerhouse Based on Uncertainty Analysis[D].Tianjin:School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,2015(in Chinese).
[5]洪坤.复杂长竖井长距离引水隧洞施工进度风险分析与仿真优化研究[D].天津:天津大学建筑工程学院,2015.Hong Kun.Schedule Risk Analysis and Simulation Optimization Research on Complex Long Distance Diversion Tunnel with Deep Shaft[D].Tianjin:School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,2015(in Chinese).
[6]Rahm T,Scheffer M,Thewes M,et al.Evaluation of disturbances in mechanized tunneling using process simulation[J].Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering,2016,31(3):176-192.
[7]钟登华,李景茹,刘奎建.全过程动态仿真技术及其在大型工程施工管理中的应用[J].天津大学学报:自然科学与工程技术版,2003,36(3):347-352.Zhong Denghua,Li Jingru,Liu Kuijian.Dynamic simulation technique for whole construction processes and its application to large-scale construction project[J].Journal of Tianjin University:Science and Technology,2003,36(3):347-352(in Chinese).
[8]张祥,尹志书,石崧,等.服从负指数分布的设备维修时间仿真分析[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2017,34(3):7-9.Zhang Xiang,Yin Zhishu,Shi Song,et al.Simulation analysis of equipment maintenance time with negative exponential distribution[J].Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments,2017,34(3):7-9(in Chinese).
[9]李冰,轩华,李静.指数密闭混合运输排队网络的运行机理研究[J].系统仿真学报,2015,27(7):1617-1627.Li Bing,Xuan Hua,Li Jing.Study on operation mechanism of mixed closed loop transportation network with exponential queues[J].Journal of System Simulation,2015,27(7):1617-1627(in Chinese).
[10]王小明,陈庆新,毛宁,等.考虑返修的模具剩余工期估计[J].机械工程学报,2014,50(7):199-208.Wang Xiaoming,Chen Qingxin,Mao Ning,et al.Estimation of mold remaining duration considering reworks[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2014,50(7):199-208(in Chinese).
[11]唐应辉,梁晓军.c个修理工同步多重休假的k/n(G)表决可修系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(9):2330-2338.Tang Yinghui,Liang Xiaojun.The k/n(G)repairable system with multiple synchronous vacations of c repairmen[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2013,33(9):2330-2338(in Chinese).
[12]Zheng Zhihua,Cui Lirong.Availability analysis of parallel repairable system with omitted failures[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology,2009,18(1):117-120.
[13]钟登华,刘东海.大型地下洞室群施工系统仿真理论方法与应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.Zhong Denghua,Liu Donghai.Research on System Simulation Theory and Application for Construction Processes of Large-Scale Underground Structure Group[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2003(in Chinese).
[14]Law A M,Kelton W D,Kelton W D.Simulation Modeling and Analysis[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,2013.
[15]Jankauskas L,Mclafferty S BestFit,distribution-fitting software by palisade corporation[C]//IEEE Simulation Conference Proceedings.Arlington,VA,USA,1996:551-555.
[16]李景茹,钟登华,刘东海,等.水利水电工程三维动态可视化仿真技术与应用[J].系统仿真学报,2006,18(1):116-119.Li Jingru,Zhong Denghua,Liu Donghai,et al.Methodology and application of three-dimension dynamic visual simulation of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering[J].Journal of System Simulation,2006,18(1):116-119(in Chinese).
[17]Yu J,Zhong D,Ren B,et al.Probabilistic risk analysis of diversion tunnel construction simulation[J].Computer-aided Civil&Infrastructure Engineering,2017,32(4):748-771.
[18]Lei B,Ren B,Zhong D,et al.Real-time construction schedule analysis of long-distance diversion tunnels based on lithological predictions using a Markov process[J].Journal of Construction Engineering&Management,2015,141(2):04014076.
[19]张正宇,张文煊,吴新霞,等.现代水利水电工程爆破[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003:168-183.Zhang Zhengyu,Zhang Wenxuan,Wu Xinxia,et al.Blasting of Modern Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering[M].Beijng:China Water Power Press,2003:168-183(in Chinese).
[20]王晓玲,赵梦琦,洪坤,等.输水隧洞TBM施工工期全局综合敏感性分析[J].天津大学学报:自然科学与工程技术版,2015,48(7):569-577.Wang Xiaoling,Zhao Mengqi,Hong Kun,et al.Global comprehensive sensitivity analysis of waterconveying tunnel TBM construction duration[J].Journal of Tianjin University:Science and Technology,2015,48(7):569-577(in Chinese).
[21]赵玉津,张慧敏,罗震,等.铝/钛超声波金属焊接参数的工艺优化[J].天津大学学报:自然科学与工程技术版,2017,50(5):540-544.Zhao Yujin,Zhang Huimin,Luo Zhen,et al.Process optimization of ultrasonic metal welding parameters for Al/Ti joints[J].Journal of Tianjin University:Science and Technology,2017,50(5):540-544(in Chinese).
[2]李明超,段志龙.耦合风险因素的大型地下厂房施工进度仿真分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2014,34(5):39-44.Li Mingchao,Duan Zhilong.Construction scheduling simulation integrated with risks of large-scale underground powerhouse[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2014,34(5):39-44(in Chinese).
[3]Rostami J,Farrokh E,Laughton C,et al.Advance rate simulation for hard rock TBMs[J].KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering,2014,18(3):837-852.
[4]毕磊.基于不确定性分析的地下洞室群施工进度仿真分析与优化研究[D].天津:天津大学建筑工程学院,2015.Bi Lei.Research on Construction Schedule Simulation Analysis and Optimization of Underground Powerhouse Based on Uncertainty Analysis[D].Tianjin:School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,2015(in Chinese).
[5]洪坤.复杂长竖井长距离引水隧洞施工进度风险分析与仿真优化研究[D].天津:天津大学建筑工程学院,2015.Hong Kun.Schedule Risk Analysis and Simulation Optimization Research on Complex Long Distance Diversion Tunnel with Deep Shaft[D].Tianjin:School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,2015(in Chinese).
[6]Rahm T,Scheffer M,Thewes M,et al.Evaluation of disturbances in mechanized tunneling using process simulation[J].Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering,2016,31(3):176-192.
[7]钟登华,李景茹,刘奎建.全过程动态仿真技术及其在大型工程施工管理中的应用[J].天津大学学报:自然科学与工程技术版,2003,36(3):347-352.Zhong Denghua,Li Jingru,Liu Kuijian.Dynamic simulation technique for whole construction processes and its application to large-scale construction project[J].Journal of Tianjin University:Science and Technology,2003,36(3):347-352(in Chinese).
[8]张祥,尹志书,石崧,等.服从负指数分布的设备维修时间仿真分析[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2017,34(3):7-9.Zhang Xiang,Yin Zhishu,Shi Song,et al.Simulation analysis of equipment maintenance time with negative exponential distribution[J].Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments,2017,34(3):7-9(in Chinese).
[9]李冰,轩华,李静.指数密闭混合运输排队网络的运行机理研究[J].系统仿真学报,2015,27(7):1617-1627.Li Bing,Xuan Hua,Li Jing.Study on operation mechanism of mixed closed loop transportation network with exponential queues[J].Journal of System Simulation,2015,27(7):1617-1627(in Chinese).
[10]王小明,陈庆新,毛宁,等.考虑返修的模具剩余工期估计[J].机械工程学报,2014,50(7):199-208.Wang Xiaoming,Chen Qingxin,Mao Ning,et al.Estimation of mold remaining duration considering reworks[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2014,50(7):199-208(in Chinese).
[11]唐应辉,梁晓军.c个修理工同步多重休假的k/n(G)表决可修系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(9):2330-2338.Tang Yinghui,Liang Xiaojun.The k/n(G)repairable system with multiple synchronous vacations of c repairmen[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2013,33(9):2330-2338(in Chinese).
[12]Zheng Zhihua,Cui Lirong.Availability analysis of parallel repairable system with omitted failures[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology,2009,18(1):117-120.
[13]钟登华,刘东海.大型地下洞室群施工系统仿真理论方法与应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.Zhong Denghua,Liu Donghai.Research on System Simulation Theory and Application for Construction Processes of Large-Scale Underground Structure Group[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2003(in Chinese).
[14]Law A M,Kelton W D,Kelton W D.Simulation Modeling and Analysis[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,2013.
[15]Jankauskas L,Mclafferty S BestFit,distribution-fitting software by palisade corporation[C]//IEEE Simulation Conference Proceedings.Arlington,VA,USA,1996:551-555.
[16]李景茹,钟登华,刘东海,等.水利水电工程三维动态可视化仿真技术与应用[J].系统仿真学报,2006,18(1):116-119.Li Jingru,Zhong Denghua,Liu Donghai,et al.Methodology and application of three-dimension dynamic visual simulation of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering[J].Journal of System Simulation,2006,18(1):116-119(in Chinese).
[17]Yu J,Zhong D,Ren B,et al.Probabilistic risk analysis of diversion tunnel construction simulation[J].Computer-aided Civil&Infrastructure Engineering,2017,32(4):748-771.
[18]Lei B,Ren B,Zhong D,et al.Real-time construction schedule analysis of long-distance diversion tunnels based on lithological predictions using a Markov process[J].Journal of Construction Engineering&Management,2015,141(2):04014076.
[19]张正宇,张文煊,吴新霞,等.现代水利水电工程爆破[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003:168-183.Zhang Zhengyu,Zhang Wenxuan,Wu Xinxia,et al.Blasting of Modern Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering[M].Beijng:China Water Power Press,2003:168-183(in Chinese).
[20]王晓玲,赵梦琦,洪坤,等.输水隧洞TBM施工工期全局综合敏感性分析[J].天津大学学报:自然科学与工程技术版,2015,48(7):569-577.Wang Xiaoling,Zhao Mengqi,Hong Kun,et al.Global comprehensive sensitivity analysis of waterconveying tunnel TBM construction duration[J].Journal of Tianjin University:Science and Technology,2015,48(7):569-577(in Chinese).
[21]赵玉津,张慧敏,罗震,等.铝/钛超声波金属焊接参数的工艺优化[J].天津大学学报:自然科学与工程技术版,2017,50(5):540-544.Zhao Yujin,Zhang Huimin,Luo Zhen,et al.Process optimization of ultrasonic metal welding parameters for Al/Ti joints[J].Journal of Tianjin University:Science and Technology,2017,50(5):540-544(in Chinese).