梯级水电建设环境下土石围堰漫溢风险研究
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摘要
针对在梯级水电建设环境下围堰度汛受来水、泄流等不确定性因素的耦合影响,以评估工程漫溢风险为目标,采用Monte-Carlo法仿真抽样技术及现有风险分析理论,按工程流域面积占比推求各级围堰施工期不确定性来水,结合工程安全度汛、溃堰失效两种不同泄洪方式建立梯级开发条件下土石围堰漫溢风险计算模型,并使用该模型进行了实例分析。结果表明:在梯级水电建设环境下上游工程安全度汛能有效降低下游工程的漫溢风险,与泄洪有关的水力参数对工程漫溢风险影响不大,而水文风险则是影响工程安全度汛的主要因素;当上游工程漫溢溃堰,改变了下游工程前的洪水组合方式会显著增大其漫溢失效的概率。研究成果可以合理预测梯级水电建设环境下工程的漫溢风险,能为梯级建设环境下土石围堰的设计及施工度汛提供重要的决策支持。
Aiming at the coupling influence from the uncertain factors of inflow, discharge, etc. on the cofferdam under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project and targeting at the overflow risk from the project, the uncertain inflows during the construction periods of all the cascades are estimated with Monte-Carlo simulation sampling technique according to the proportion of the watershed area of project, and then a model for calculating the overflow risk from earth-rock cofferdam under the cascade condition is developed in accordance with two different flood discharging modes, i.e. safety of project construction and failure of cofferdam during flood period; moreover, actual case analysis is made with the model as well. The result shows that the safety of the upstream project during flood period can effectively lower the overflow risk of the downstream project under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project, while the hydraulic parameters related to flood discharge have no larger influences on the overflow risk of project, but the main factor of the influence on the safety of project during flood period is just the hydrological risk. When the failure of the cofferdam of the upstream project occurs, the flood combination in front of the downstream project is to be changed, which is to significantly increase the probability of its failure. The study result can reasonably predict the overflow risk of project under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project, thus can provide an important decision-making support for the design of earth-rock cofferdam and its safety of construction during flood period.
Aiming at the coupling influence from the uncertain factors of inflow, discharge, etc. on the cofferdam under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project and targeting at the overflow risk from the project, the uncertain inflows during the construction periods of all the cascades are estimated with Monte-Carlo simulation sampling technique according to the proportion of the watershed area of project, and then a model for calculating the overflow risk from earth-rock cofferdam under the cascade condition is developed in accordance with two different flood discharging modes, i.e. safety of project construction and failure of cofferdam during flood period; moreover, actual case analysis is made with the model as well. The result shows that the safety of the upstream project during flood period can effectively lower the overflow risk of the downstream project under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project, while the hydraulic parameters related to flood discharge have no larger influences on the overflow risk of project, but the main factor of the influence on the safety of project during flood period is just the hydrological risk. When the failure of the cofferdam of the upstream project occurs, the flood combination in front of the downstream project is to be changed, which is to significantly increase the probability of its failure. The study result can reasonably predict the overflow risk of project under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project, thus can provide an important decision-making support for the design of earth-rock cofferdam and its safety of construction during flood period.
引文
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[13] 周建平,周兴波,杜效鹄,等.梯级水库群大坝风险防控设计研究[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(1):1- 10.
[14] 谢任之.溃坝坝址流量计算[J].水利水运科学研究,1982(1):43- 58.
[15] 陈凤兰,王长新.施工导流风险分析与计算[J].水科学进展, 1996, 7(4):361- 366.
[16] 吕弯弯,顾圣平,何蕾,等.基于蒙特卡罗法的土石坝洪水漫顶风险率计算及其敏感性分析[J].长江科学院院报,2015,32(5):48- 52,56.
[2] 水利部水利水电规划设计总院,中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司. 水利水电工程施工组织设计规范:SL 303—2017[S]. 北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.
[3] 胡志根,刘全,贺昌海,等. 基于Monte-Carlo方法的土石围堰挡水导流风险分析[J]. 水科学进展,2002,13(5):634- 638.
[4] 王卓甫.考虑洪水过程不确定的施工导流风险计算[J].水利学报,1998,29(4):34- 38.
[5] 王常红.施工导流系统不确定性问题的分析与应用研究[D]. 武汉:武汉大学,2013.
[6] 张超,胡志根,刘全.梯级施工导流系统整体风险分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):396- 402.
[7] 薛进平,胡志根,刘全. 梯级水电站建设施工导流风险分析[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版),2014,46(1):75- 80.
[8] 孙安邦,李晗蔚,许鹏,等. 流注放电低温等离子体中电子输运系数计算的蒙特卡罗模型[J]. 物理学报,2017,66(19):192- 201.
[9] 李宗坤,葛巍,王娟,等.土石坝建设期漫坝风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(3):145- 149.
[10] 刘潋. 梯级水电站施工导流风险效益分摊及补偿机制研究[D]. 武汉:武汉大学,2014.
[11] JIDIN R, OTHMAN A B. Cascade hydroelectric scheme: River flow estimation for reservoir regulation improvement and flood-risk mitigation[C]//IEEE. 2015 IEEE International Conference on Control System, Computing and Engineering (ICCSCE). George Town, Malaysia: IEEE, 2016:315- 319.
[12] 刘全,胡志根,任金明,等.梯级建设环境下水电工程施工导流风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(1):147- 153.
[13] 周建平,周兴波,杜效鹄,等.梯级水库群大坝风险防控设计研究[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(1):1- 10.
[14] 谢任之.溃坝坝址流量计算[J].水利水运科学研究,1982(1):43- 58.
[15] 陈凤兰,王长新.施工导流风险分析与计算[J].水科学进展, 1996, 7(4):361- 366.
[16] 吕弯弯,顾圣平,何蕾,等.基于蒙特卡罗法的土石坝洪水漫顶风险率计算及其敏感性分析[J].长江科学院院报,2015,32(5):48- 52,56.