基于突变级数法的山西省水资源脆弱性评价
|
摘要
水资源脆弱性评价是水资源安全研究的重要内容,突变级数法为水资源脆弱性评价方法研究提供了新的视角。通过构建突变级数模型,并利用突变级数原理重新划定分级标准,有效弥补了突变级数法缺陷,对山西省2004～2016年水资源脆弱性从自然脆弱、人为脆弱和承载脆弱三个方面进行评价。结果表明,2004～2016年山西省水资源脆弱度呈波动式变化降低,其中自然脆弱度呈波浪式变化,人为脆弱度呈波动式下降趋势,承载脆弱度呈减少趋势;按照水资源综合脆弱性,山西省可划分为重度脆弱区、中度脆弱区和轻度脆弱区三个区,其中重度脆弱区1个市,中度脆弱区3个市,轻度脆弱区7个市。
Assessment vulnerability of water resources is an important part of water resources security research.The catastrophe progression method provides a new perspective for the study of water resources vulnerability assessment.The classification criteria were redrawn by using the principle of catastrophe progression to effectively remedy the defect of the method.This paper assessed water resources vulnerability including the natural vulnerability,artificial vulnerability and burdening vulnerability of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2016.The results show that the water resources vulnerability in Shanxi Province appears a wave-like decrease from 2004 to 2016.The natural vulnerability changes in fluctuation.The artificial vulnerability shows a wave-like downward trend.The carrying vulnerability shows a decreasing trend.According to the comprehensive vulnerability of water resources,Shanxi Province can be divided into three districts:the severely vulnerable area,the moderately vulnerable area and the lightly vulnerable area,including one severely vulnerable city,three moderately vulnerable cities and seven lightly vulnerable cities.
Assessment vulnerability of water resources is an important part of water resources security research.The catastrophe progression method provides a new perspective for the study of water resources vulnerability assessment.The classification criteria were redrawn by using the principle of catastrophe progression to effectively remedy the defect of the method.This paper assessed water resources vulnerability including the natural vulnerability,artificial vulnerability and burdening vulnerability of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2016.The results show that the water resources vulnerability in Shanxi Province appears a wave-like decrease from 2004 to 2016.The natural vulnerability changes in fluctuation.The artificial vulnerability shows a wave-like downward trend.The carrying vulnerability shows a decreasing trend.According to the comprehensive vulnerability of water resources,Shanxi Province can be divided into three districts:the severely vulnerable area,the moderately vulnerable area and the lightly vulnerable area,including one severely vulnerable city,three moderately vulnerable cities and seven lightly vulnerable cities.
引文
[1]夏军,石卫,陈俊旭,等.变化环境下水资源脆弱性及其适应性调控研究---以海河流域为例[J].水利水电技术,2015,46(6):27-33.
[2]马芳冰,王烜,李春晖.水资源脆弱性评价研究进展[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(1):30-37.
[3]范琦,王贵玲,蔺文静,等.地下水脆弱性评价方法的探讨及实例[J].水利学报,2007,38(5):601-605.
[4]姚文峰,唐莉华,张思聪.过程模拟法及其在唐山平原区地下水脆弱性评价中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(1):119-123.
[5]王生云.不确定性情形下水资源脆弱性评价[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(9):36-39,66.
[6]周光涛.概率论与模糊识别在水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(9):42-45,32.
[7]何平,赵子都.突变理论及其应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1989.
[8]郭健.突变理论在复杂系统脆性理论研究中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2004.
[2]马芳冰,王烜,李春晖.水资源脆弱性评价研究进展[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(1):30-37.
[3]范琦,王贵玲,蔺文静,等.地下水脆弱性评价方法的探讨及实例[J].水利学报,2007,38(5):601-605.
[4]姚文峰,唐莉华,张思聪.过程模拟法及其在唐山平原区地下水脆弱性评价中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(1):119-123.
[5]王生云.不确定性情形下水资源脆弱性评价[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(9):36-39,66.
[6]周光涛.概率论与模糊识别在水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(9):42-45,32.
[7]何平,赵子都.突变理论及其应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1989.
[8]郭健.突变理论在复杂系统脆性理论研究中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2004.