全球价值链、汇率传递与出口贸易弹性
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摘要
文章在考虑全球价值链(GVC)前向联系和后向联系的基础上,建立汇率变动影响出口贸易的理论模型,评估汇率变动对中国制造业出口规模和出口结构的影响。研究发现,忽视GVC因素会导致出口贸易整体的汇率传递率低估7. 9%,汇率弹性高估15. 1%,电子信息和机械设备两个行业的汇率弹性高估30%以上。尽管GVC后向联系主导出口贸易的汇率传导机制,但前向联系在个别行业的影响力也不容忽视,并且随着制造业的价值链提升而趋于增强。GVC联系的行业差异和国别差异导致出口贸易弹性表现出鲜明的行业特征和国别特征,人民币升值有利于出口行业结构的高级化调整和出口市场结构的多元化调整。主要货币汇率的非对称变动虽然有利于中国出口总量的规模扩张,却不利于出口结构的优化调整。
Based on the forward linkage and backward linkage of global value chain( GVC),this paper sets up a theoretical model of how exchange rate influence export. Then we evaluate the effects of exchange rate movement on the export value and structure of Chinese manufacturing. The findings reveal that ignoring GVC factors will lead to understate the pass-through rate about by 7. 9 percent and overstate export elasticity by about 15. 1 percent. In the manufacture of computer,electronic and optical products and manufacture of machinery and equipment,the export elasticities will even be overstated by 30 percent. Even though GVC backward linkage dominates the transmission mechanism of exchange rate,the influence of GVC forward linkage in several manufactures should not be ignored and will be enhanced with upgrading value chain of Chinese manufacturing. The difference of GVC linkage among industries and countries leads export elasticity to behave distinct industry characteristics and country characteristics. RMB appreciation is in favor of the high gradation adjustment of export industry structure and diversification adjustment of export market structure. Asymmetric variation of major currencies is beneficial to Chinese export growth,but is unbeneficial to export structure optimization.
Based on the forward linkage and backward linkage of global value chain( GVC),this paper sets up a theoretical model of how exchange rate influence export. Then we evaluate the effects of exchange rate movement on the export value and structure of Chinese manufacturing. The findings reveal that ignoring GVC factors will lead to understate the pass-through rate about by 7. 9 percent and overstate export elasticity by about 15. 1 percent. In the manufacture of computer,electronic and optical products and manufacture of machinery and equipment,the export elasticities will even be overstated by 30 percent. Even though GVC backward linkage dominates the transmission mechanism of exchange rate,the influence of GVC forward linkage in several manufactures should not be ignored and will be enhanced with upgrading value chain of Chinese manufacturing. The difference of GVC linkage among industries and countries leads export elasticity to behave distinct industry characteristics and country characteristics. RMB appreciation is in favor of the high gradation adjustment of export industry structure and diversification adjustment of export market structure. Asymmetric variation of major currencies is beneficial to Chinese export growth,but is unbeneficial to export structure optimization.
引文
[1] Ahmed,S.,M. Appendino,M. Ruta. Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports. IMF working paper,No. 252,2015.
[2] Amiti,M.,Itskhoki,O.,J. Konings. Importers,Exporters,and Exchange Rate Disconnect. American Economic Review,2014,104(7):1942-1978.
[3] Arndt,Sven W.,Humer,Alex. Trade,Production Networks and the Exchange Rate. Journal of Economic Asymmetries,2007,4(1):11-39.
[4] Attoh,Johanna Retana. Three Essays Assessing Global Value Chain Fragmentation on International Trade Using the World Input-Output Database. Western Michigan University Dissertations,No. 2495,2016.
[5] Berman,N.,Martin,P.,T. Mayer. How Do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2012,127(1):437-492.
[6] Cheng Kevin C.,Gee Hee Hong,Dulani Seneviratne,Rachel van Elkan. Rethinking the Exchange Rate Impact on Trade in a World with Global Value Chains. International Economic Journal,2016,30(2):204-216.
[7] Goldberg,Pinelopi Koujianou,Michael M. Knetter. Goods Prices and Exchange Rates:What Have We Learned? Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35:1243-1272.
[8] Fauceglia D.,A Lassmann,A Shingal,M Wermelinger. Backward Participation in Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate Driven Adjustments of Swiss Exports. Review of World Economics,2018,46(6):1-48.
[9] Greenaway,D.,Kneller,R.,X. Zhang. The Effect of Exchange Rates on Firm Exports:The Role of Imported Intermediate Inputs.World Economy,2010,33(8):961-986.
[10] Hummels,David. Toward a Geography of Trade Costs. GTAP Working Papers,No. 1162,1999.
[11] Kiyotaka Sato,Shajuan Zhang. Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Global Value Chains. The 15th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association,2016.
[12] Koopman,Robert,Powers William.,Wang Zhi,Shang-Jin Wei. Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains. NBER Working Paper,No. 16426,2010.
[13] Koopman,Robert,Zhi Wang,Shang-Jin Wei. Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports. American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[14] Powers,W.,D. Riker. Exchange Rate Pass-through in Global Value Chains:The Effects of Upstream Suppliers. USICT Office of Economics Working Paper,No. 2,2013.
[15] Stock James H.,Mark W. Watson. Heteroskedasticity-robust Standard Errors for Fixed-effects Panel-data Regression. Econometrica,2008,76:155-174.
[16] Uddin Syed Al-Helal. Value-added Trade,Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Trade Elasticity:Revisiting the Trade Competitiveness. SSRN Paper,October,2016.
[17] Wang Z,Wei S J,K. F. Zhu. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Level. NBER Working Paper,No.19677,2013.
[18] Wang Z,Wei S. J.,Xu X. D.,K. F. Zhu. Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles. NBER Working Paper,No. 23222,2017.
[19]曹伟.依市定价与汇率传递不完全:发展历史与研究进展评述.世界经济,2016(9):53-73.
[20]韩剑,郑秋玲,邵军.多产品企业、汇率变动与出口价格传递.管理世界,2017(8):14-26.
[21]沈国兵,黄铄珺.汇率变化如何影响中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构.世界经济,2017(11):95-119.
[22]盛斌,张运婷.全球价值链视角下的中国国际竞争力:基于任务与产品实际有效汇率的研究.世界经济研究,2015(2):43-51.
[23]施建淮,傅雄广.汇率传递理论文献综述.世界经济,2010(5):3-26.
[24]田开兰,孔亦舒,杨翠红.汇率波动对中国出口增加值的影响分析.系统工程理论与实践,2017(5):1144-1153.
[25]向训勇,陈婷,陈飞翔.进口中间投入、企业生产率与人民币汇率传递——基于我国出口企业微观数据的实证研究.金融研究,2016(9):33-49.
[26]张会清.人民币升值、商品异质性与出口结构调整.国际贸易问题,2015(2):155-167.
[27]张会清,翟孝强.中国参与全球价值链的特征与启示——基于生产分解模型的研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2018(1):3-22.
(1)国际清算银行的统计数据显示,2014~2017年间,美国、欧元区、日本的实际有效汇率指数变动幅度分别为14. 2%、-5. 8%、0. 8%。
[2] Amiti,M.,Itskhoki,O.,J. Konings. Importers,Exporters,and Exchange Rate Disconnect. American Economic Review,2014,104(7):1942-1978.
[3] Arndt,Sven W.,Humer,Alex. Trade,Production Networks and the Exchange Rate. Journal of Economic Asymmetries,2007,4(1):11-39.
[4] Attoh,Johanna Retana. Three Essays Assessing Global Value Chain Fragmentation on International Trade Using the World Input-Output Database. Western Michigan University Dissertations,No. 2495,2016.
[5] Berman,N.,Martin,P.,T. Mayer. How Do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2012,127(1):437-492.
[6] Cheng Kevin C.,Gee Hee Hong,Dulani Seneviratne,Rachel van Elkan. Rethinking the Exchange Rate Impact on Trade in a World with Global Value Chains. International Economic Journal,2016,30(2):204-216.
[7] Goldberg,Pinelopi Koujianou,Michael M. Knetter. Goods Prices and Exchange Rates:What Have We Learned? Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35:1243-1272.
[8] Fauceglia D.,A Lassmann,A Shingal,M Wermelinger. Backward Participation in Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate Driven Adjustments of Swiss Exports. Review of World Economics,2018,46(6):1-48.
[9] Greenaway,D.,Kneller,R.,X. Zhang. The Effect of Exchange Rates on Firm Exports:The Role of Imported Intermediate Inputs.World Economy,2010,33(8):961-986.
[10] Hummels,David. Toward a Geography of Trade Costs. GTAP Working Papers,No. 1162,1999.
[11] Kiyotaka Sato,Shajuan Zhang. Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Global Value Chains. The 15th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association,2016.
[12] Koopman,Robert,Powers William.,Wang Zhi,Shang-Jin Wei. Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains. NBER Working Paper,No. 16426,2010.
[13] Koopman,Robert,Zhi Wang,Shang-Jin Wei. Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports. American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[14] Powers,W.,D. Riker. Exchange Rate Pass-through in Global Value Chains:The Effects of Upstream Suppliers. USICT Office of Economics Working Paper,No. 2,2013.
[15] Stock James H.,Mark W. Watson. Heteroskedasticity-robust Standard Errors for Fixed-effects Panel-data Regression. Econometrica,2008,76:155-174.
[16] Uddin Syed Al-Helal. Value-added Trade,Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Trade Elasticity:Revisiting the Trade Competitiveness. SSRN Paper,October,2016.
[17] Wang Z,Wei S J,K. F. Zhu. Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Level. NBER Working Paper,No.19677,2013.
[18] Wang Z,Wei S. J.,Xu X. D.,K. F. Zhu. Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles. NBER Working Paper,No. 23222,2017.
[19]曹伟.依市定价与汇率传递不完全:发展历史与研究进展评述.世界经济,2016(9):53-73.
[20]韩剑,郑秋玲,邵军.多产品企业、汇率变动与出口价格传递.管理世界,2017(8):14-26.
[21]沈国兵,黄铄珺.汇率变化如何影响中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构.世界经济,2017(11):95-119.
[22]盛斌,张运婷.全球价值链视角下的中国国际竞争力:基于任务与产品实际有效汇率的研究.世界经济研究,2015(2):43-51.
[23]施建淮,傅雄广.汇率传递理论文献综述.世界经济,2010(5):3-26.
[24]田开兰,孔亦舒,杨翠红.汇率波动对中国出口增加值的影响分析.系统工程理论与实践,2017(5):1144-1153.
[25]向训勇,陈婷,陈飞翔.进口中间投入、企业生产率与人民币汇率传递——基于我国出口企业微观数据的实证研究.金融研究,2016(9):33-49.
[26]张会清.人民币升值、商品异质性与出口结构调整.国际贸易问题,2015(2):155-167.
[27]张会清,翟孝强.中国参与全球价值链的特征与启示——基于生产分解模型的研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2018(1):3-22.
(1)国际清算银行的统计数据显示,2014~2017年间,美国、欧元区、日本的实际有效汇率指数变动幅度分别为14. 2%、-5. 8%、0. 8%。