Strong link between large tropical volcanic eruptions and severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas revealed by tree-ring records
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摘要
Large tropical volcanic eruptions can cause short-term global cooling. However, little is known whether large tropical volcanic eruptions, like the one in Tambora/Indonesia in 1815, cause regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Using a tree-ring network of precisely dated Himalayan birch in the central Himalayas, we reconstructed variations in the regional pre-monsoon precipitation back to 1650 CE. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the pre-monsoon regional droughts are associated with large tropical volcanic eruptions, appearing to have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions in the central Himalayas.In fact, the most severe drought since 1650 CE occurred after the Tambora eruption. These results suggest that dry conditions prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas were associated with explosive tropical volcanism. Prolonged La Ni?a events also correspond with persistent pre-monsoon droughts in the central Himalayas. Our results provide evidence that large tropical volcanic eruptions most likely induced severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas.
Large tropical volcanic eruptions can cause short-term global cooling. However, little is known whether large tropical volcanic eruptions, like the one in Tambora/Indonesia in 1815, cause regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Using a tree-ring network of precisely dated Himalayan birch in the central Himalayas, we reconstructed variations in the regional pre-monsoon precipitation back to 1650 CE. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the pre-monsoon regional droughts are associated with large tropical volcanic eruptions, appearing to have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions in the central Himalayas.In fact, the most severe drought since 1650 CE occurred after the Tambora eruption. These results suggest that dry conditions prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas were associated with explosive tropical volcanism. Prolonged La Ni?a events also correspond with persistent pre-monsoon droughts in the central Himalayas. Our results provide evidence that large tropical volcanic eruptions most likely induced severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas.
Large tropical volcanic eruptions can cause short-term global cooling. However, little is known whether large tropical volcanic eruptions, like the one in Tambora/Indonesia in 1815, cause regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Using a tree-ring network of precisely dated Himalayan birch in the central Himalayas, we reconstructed variations in the regional pre-monsoon precipitation back to 1650 CE. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the pre-monsoon regional droughts are associated with large tropical volcanic eruptions, appearing to have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions in the central Himalayas.In fact, the most severe drought since 1650 CE occurred after the Tambora eruption. These results suggest that dry conditions prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas were associated with explosive tropical volcanism. Prolonged La Ni?a events also correspond with persistent pre-monsoon droughts in the central Himalayas. Our results provide evidence that large tropical volcanic eruptions most likely induced severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas.
引文
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[19]Bayramzadeh V,Zhu H,Lu X,et al.Temperature variability in Northern Iran during the past 700 years.Sci Bull 2018;63:462-4.
[20]Bunn AG,Waggoner LA.Graumlich LJ.Topographic mediation of growth in high elevation foxtail pine(Pinus balfouriana Grev.et Balf.)forests in the Sierra Nevada,USA.Glob Ecol Biogeogr 2005;14:103-14.
[21]Lloyd AH,Sullivan PF,Bunn AG.Integrating dendroecology with other disciplines improves understanding of upper and latitudinal treelines.In:Amoroso M,Daniels L,Baker P,editors.Dendroecology.Cham:Springer;2017.p.135-57.
[22]Ren P,Rossi S,Camarero JJ,et al.Critical temperature and precipitation thresholds for the onset of xylogenesis of Juniperus przewalskii in a semi-arid area of the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau.Ann Bot 2018;121:617-24.
[23]Ziaco E,Truettner C,Biondi F,et al.Moisture-driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity.Plant Cell Environ 2018;41:823-36.
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[27]Schneider DP,Ammann CM,Otto-Bliesner BL,et al.Climate response to large,high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model.J Geophys Res 2009;114:D15101.
[28]Thapa UK,George S St,Kharal DK,et al.Tree growth across the Nepal Himalaya during the last four centuries.Prog Phys Geogr 2017;41:478-95.
[29]Xu C,Sano M,Dimri AP,et al.Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years:evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies.Clim Past 2018;14:653-64.
[30]Chenoweth M.Two major volcanic cooling episodes derived from global marine air temperature,AD 1807-1827.Geophys Res Lett 2001;28:2963-6.
[31]Mann ME,Cane MA,Zebiak SE,et al.Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical pacific over the past 1000 years.J Clim 2005;18:447-56.
[32]Salzer M,Hughes M.Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr.Quat Res 2007;67:57-68.
[33]Br?uning A,Mantwill B.Summer temperature and summer monsoon history on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 400 years recorded by tree rings.Geophys Res Lett 2004;31:L24205.
[34]Zhu H,Shao X,Yin Z,et al.August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 2011;305:84-92.
[35]Duan J,Li L,Ma Z,et al.Summer cooling driven by large volcanic eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau.J Clim 2018;31:9869-78.
[36]Thompson LG,Mosley-Thompson E,Brecher H,et al.Abrupt tropical climate change:past and present.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006;103:10536-43.
[37]Yadav RR.Long-term hydroclimatic variability in monsoon shadow zone of western Himalaya.India.Clim Dyn 2011;36:1453-62.
[38]Shao X,Huang L,Liu H,et al.Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha,Qinghai.Sci China Ser D Earth Sci2005;48:939-49.
[39]Liu Y,An Z,Ma H,et al.Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature.Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 2006;49:408-20.
[40]Yang B,Wang J,Liu J.A 1556 year-long early summer moisture reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor,Northwestern China.Sci China Earth Sci2019;62:953-63.
[41]Gou X,Deng Y,Gao L,et al.Millennium tree-ring reconstruction of drought variability in the eastern Qilian Mountains,northwest China.Clim Dyn2015;45:1761-70.
[42]Zhang QB,Evans MN,Lyu LX.Moisture dipole over the Tibetan Plateau during the past five and a half centuries.Nat Commun 2015;6:8062.
[43]Shrestha AB,Cameron PW,Paul AM,et al.Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatological parameters.Int J Climatol 2000;20:317-27.
[44]Man W,Zhou T,Jungclaus JH.Effects of large volcanic eruptions on global summer climate and East Asian Monsoon changes during the last millennium:analysis of MPI-ESM simulations.J Clim 2014;27:7394-409.
[45]Adams JB,Mann ME,Ammann CM.Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing.Nature 2003;426:274-8.
[46]Khodri M,Izumo T,Vialard J,et al.Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Ni?o by cooling tropical Africa.Nat Commun 2017;8:778.
[47]Sun W,Liu J,Wang B,et al.A‘‘La Ni?a-like”state occurring in the second year after large tropical volcanic eruptions during the past 1500 years.Clim Dyn2019;52:7495-509.
[48]Barlow M,Cullen H,Lyon B.Drought in central and southwest Asia:La Ni?a,the warm pool,and Indian Ocean precipitation.J Clim 2002;15:697-700.
[49]Hoerling M,Kumar A.The perfect ocean for drought.Science 2003;299:691-4.
[50]Church JA,White NJ,Arblaster JM.Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content.Nature 2005;438:74-7.
[51]Gleckler PJ,Wigley TML,Santer BD,et al.Krakatoa’s signature persists in the ocean.Nature 2006;439:675.
[52]Meehl GA.Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and south Asian monsoon variability.Science 1994;266:263-7.
[53]Lau KM,Kim KM.Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall,and circulation.Geophys Res Lett 2006;33:L21810.
[54]Hu Y,Huang H,Zhou C.Widening and weakening of the Hadley circulation under global warming.Sci Bull 2018;63:640-4.
[2]Bradley RS,Jones PD.Records of explosive volcanic eruptions over the last 500years.In:Bradley RS,Jones PD,editors.Climate Since A.D.1600.London:Routledge;1992.p.606-22.
[3]Allen MR,Ingram WJ.Constraints on the future changes in climate and the hydrological cycle.Nature 2002;419:224-32.
[4]Trenberth KE,Dai A.Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering.Geophys Res Lett 2007;34:L15702.
[5]Anchukaitis K,Buckley BM,Cook ER,et al.Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region.Geophys Res Lett 2010;37:L22703.
[6]Liang E,Dawadi B,Pederson N,et al.Is the growth of birch at the upper timberline in the Himalayas limited by moisture or by temperature?Ecology2014;95:2453-65.
[7]Holmes RL.Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement.Tree-Ring Bull 1983;43:69-78.
[8]Cook ER.A time-series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization Doctor Dissertation.Tucson:The University of Arizona;1985.
[9]Cook ER,Krusic PJ,Jones PD.Dendroclimatic signals in long tree-ring chronologies from the Himalayas of Nepal.Int J Climatol 2003;23:707-32.
[10]Mitchell TD,Jones PD.An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids.Int JClimatol 2005;25:693-712.
[11]Haurwitz MW,Brier GW.A critique of the superposed epoch analysis method:its application to solar-weather relations.Mon Weather Rev1981;109:2074-9.
[12]Fischer EM,Luterbacher J,Zorita E,et al.European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium.Geophys Res Lett 2007;34:L05707.
[13]Tierney JE,Abram NJ,Anchukaitis KJ,et al.Tropical sea surface temperature for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives.Paleoceanography2015;30:226-52.
[14]Panthi S,Br?uning A,Zhou ZK,et al.Tree rings reveal recent intensified spring drought in the Central Himalaya,Nepal.Glob Planet Chang 2017;157:26-34.
[15]Tiwari A,Fan ZX,Jump AS,et al.Gradual expansions of moisture sensitive Abies spectabilis forest in the Trans-Himalayan zone of central Nepal associated with climate change.Dendrochronologia 2017;41:34-43.
[16]Sigdel SR,Dawadi B,Camarero JJ,et al.Moisture-limited tree growth for a subtropical Himalayan conifer forest,western Nepal.Forests 2018;9:340.
[17]Rossi S,Anfodillo T,Cufar K,et al.Pattern of xylem phenology in conifers of cold ecosystems at the Northern Hemisphere.Glob Chang Biol2016;22:3804-13.
[18]Li X,Liang E,Gricˇar J,et al.Critical minimum temperature limits xylogenesis and maintains treelines on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.Sci Bull2017;62:804-12.
[19]Bayramzadeh V,Zhu H,Lu X,et al.Temperature variability in Northern Iran during the past 700 years.Sci Bull 2018;63:462-4.
[20]Bunn AG,Waggoner LA.Graumlich LJ.Topographic mediation of growth in high elevation foxtail pine(Pinus balfouriana Grev.et Balf.)forests in the Sierra Nevada,USA.Glob Ecol Biogeogr 2005;14:103-14.
[21]Lloyd AH,Sullivan PF,Bunn AG.Integrating dendroecology with other disciplines improves understanding of upper and latitudinal treelines.In:Amoroso M,Daniels L,Baker P,editors.Dendroecology.Cham:Springer;2017.p.135-57.
[22]Ren P,Rossi S,Camarero JJ,et al.Critical temperature and precipitation thresholds for the onset of xylogenesis of Juniperus przewalskii in a semi-arid area of the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau.Ann Bot 2018;121:617-24.
[23]Ziaco E,Truettner C,Biondi F,et al.Moisture-driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity.Plant Cell Environ 2018;41:823-36.
[24]Zhang J,Gou X,Manzanedo RD,et al.Cambial phenology and xylogenesis of Juniperus przewalskii over a climatic gradient is influenced by both temperature and drought.Agric For Meteorol 2018;260:165-75.
[25]Sigdel SR,Wang Y,Camarero JJ,et al.Moisture-mediated responsiveness of treeline shifts to global warming in the Himalayas.Glob Chang Biol2018;24:5549-59.
[26]Cook ER,Anchukaitis KJ,Buckley BM,et al.Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium.Science 2010;328:486-9.
[27]Schneider DP,Ammann CM,Otto-Bliesner BL,et al.Climate response to large,high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model.J Geophys Res 2009;114:D15101.
[28]Thapa UK,George S St,Kharal DK,et al.Tree growth across the Nepal Himalaya during the last four centuries.Prog Phys Geogr 2017;41:478-95.
[29]Xu C,Sano M,Dimri AP,et al.Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years:evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies.Clim Past 2018;14:653-64.
[30]Chenoweth M.Two major volcanic cooling episodes derived from global marine air temperature,AD 1807-1827.Geophys Res Lett 2001;28:2963-6.
[31]Mann ME,Cane MA,Zebiak SE,et al.Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical pacific over the past 1000 years.J Clim 2005;18:447-56.
[32]Salzer M,Hughes M.Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr.Quat Res 2007;67:57-68.
[33]Br?uning A,Mantwill B.Summer temperature and summer monsoon history on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 400 years recorded by tree rings.Geophys Res Lett 2004;31:L24205.
[34]Zhu H,Shao X,Yin Z,et al.August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 2011;305:84-92.
[35]Duan J,Li L,Ma Z,et al.Summer cooling driven by large volcanic eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau.J Clim 2018;31:9869-78.
[36]Thompson LG,Mosley-Thompson E,Brecher H,et al.Abrupt tropical climate change:past and present.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006;103:10536-43.
[37]Yadav RR.Long-term hydroclimatic variability in monsoon shadow zone of western Himalaya.India.Clim Dyn 2011;36:1453-62.
[38]Shao X,Huang L,Liu H,et al.Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha,Qinghai.Sci China Ser D Earth Sci2005;48:939-49.
[39]Liu Y,An Z,Ma H,et al.Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature.Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 2006;49:408-20.
[40]Yang B,Wang J,Liu J.A 1556 year-long early summer moisture reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor,Northwestern China.Sci China Earth Sci2019;62:953-63.
[41]Gou X,Deng Y,Gao L,et al.Millennium tree-ring reconstruction of drought variability in the eastern Qilian Mountains,northwest China.Clim Dyn2015;45:1761-70.
[42]Zhang QB,Evans MN,Lyu LX.Moisture dipole over the Tibetan Plateau during the past five and a half centuries.Nat Commun 2015;6:8062.
[43]Shrestha AB,Cameron PW,Paul AM,et al.Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatological parameters.Int J Climatol 2000;20:317-27.
[44]Man W,Zhou T,Jungclaus JH.Effects of large volcanic eruptions on global summer climate and East Asian Monsoon changes during the last millennium:analysis of MPI-ESM simulations.J Clim 2014;27:7394-409.
[45]Adams JB,Mann ME,Ammann CM.Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing.Nature 2003;426:274-8.
[46]Khodri M,Izumo T,Vialard J,et al.Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Ni?o by cooling tropical Africa.Nat Commun 2017;8:778.
[47]Sun W,Liu J,Wang B,et al.A‘‘La Ni?a-like”state occurring in the second year after large tropical volcanic eruptions during the past 1500 years.Clim Dyn2019;52:7495-509.
[48]Barlow M,Cullen H,Lyon B.Drought in central and southwest Asia:La Ni?a,the warm pool,and Indian Ocean precipitation.J Clim 2002;15:697-700.
[49]Hoerling M,Kumar A.The perfect ocean for drought.Science 2003;299:691-4.
[50]Church JA,White NJ,Arblaster JM.Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content.Nature 2005;438:74-7.
[51]Gleckler PJ,Wigley TML,Santer BD,et al.Krakatoa’s signature persists in the ocean.Nature 2006;439:675.
[52]Meehl GA.Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and south Asian monsoon variability.Science 1994;266:263-7.
[53]Lau KM,Kim KM.Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall,and circulation.Geophys Res Lett 2006;33:L21810.
[54]Hu Y,Huang H,Zhou C.Widening and weakening of the Hadley circulation under global warming.Sci Bull 2018;63:640-4.