基于全寿命管理电网设备资产墙预测模型研究
|
摘要
随着我国电网事业的蓬勃发展,电网企业设备资产全寿命管理和资产墙模型分析方法逐渐得到重视。基于价值链管理理论,提出了一种基于全寿命管理资产墙模型投资预测方法,该方法引入全寿命管理设备资产价值函数,克服了经典资产墙简单平移推演的弊端。通过对湖北电网主变设备投资预测实例分析表明,采用此模型的预测结果比采用经典资产墙方法的预测结果更准确,可为电网企业设备资产管理提供参考。
With the vigorous development of China's power grid industry,the life-cycle management of equipment assets and the assets wall models have been gradually gained attention by power grid enterprises in China.Based on the theory of value chain management,this paper proposes an investment prediction method based on the life-cycle management assets wall model.This method introduces assets value functions of equipment or devices according life-cycle management evaluating,and it overcomes the shortcomings of simple shifting in classical assets wall model.Taking Hubei Power Grid's main transformers prediction as example,it is shown that the proposed model is more accurate than the classical assets wall method,and can provide a reference for the grid enterprises managing their equipment assets.
With the vigorous development of China's power grid industry,the life-cycle management of equipment assets and the assets wall models have been gradually gained attention by power grid enterprises in China.Based on the theory of value chain management,this paper proposes an investment prediction method based on the life-cycle management assets wall model.This method introduces assets value functions of equipment or devices according life-cycle management evaluating,and it overcomes the shortcomings of simple shifting in classical assets wall model.Taking Hubei Power Grid's main transformers prediction as example,it is shown that the proposed model is more accurate than the classical assets wall method,and can provide a reference for the grid enterprises managing their equipment assets.
引文
[1]陈虎.供电企业大修及技改项目成本管理研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.
[2]蒋晓军,李非.基于价值链的电网企业资产全寿命周期管理研究[J].财会通讯,2011(11):103-104.
[3]任峰,丁超.市场环境下负荷预测误差风险管理研究[J].现代电力,2009,26(3):87-90.
[4]谭波,刘丙财,陈永德,等.基于风险评估的输电设备差异化运维策略[J].中国电力,2016,49(S1):21-26,30.
[5]张俊波,邵永刚.基于电网实物“资产墙”的技改预测研究[J].中国管理信息化,2016,19(14):18-20.
[6]田洪迅,张兴辉,武宏波.电网资产全过程管理决策方法框架体系[J].电力建设,2016,37(4):50-56.
[7]祝锦舟,张焰,梁文举,等.面向规划的电网全寿命周期安全效能成本评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(23):6 768-6 779,7 068.
[8]刘艺贺,周耀俊,万晓苹.电网实物资产“资产墙”分析方法研究[J].华东电力,2014(3):596-600.
[2]蒋晓军,李非.基于价值链的电网企业资产全寿命周期管理研究[J].财会通讯,2011(11):103-104.
[3]任峰,丁超.市场环境下负荷预测误差风险管理研究[J].现代电力,2009,26(3):87-90.
[4]谭波,刘丙财,陈永德,等.基于风险评估的输电设备差异化运维策略[J].中国电力,2016,49(S1):21-26,30.
[5]张俊波,邵永刚.基于电网实物“资产墙”的技改预测研究[J].中国管理信息化,2016,19(14):18-20.
[6]田洪迅,张兴辉,武宏波.电网资产全过程管理决策方法框架体系[J].电力建设,2016,37(4):50-56.
[7]祝锦舟,张焰,梁文举,等.面向规划的电网全寿命周期安全效能成本评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(23):6 768-6 779,7 068.
[8]刘艺贺,周耀俊,万晓苹.电网实物资产“资产墙”分析方法研究[J].华东电力,2014(3):596-600.