基于复杂网络的海洋生态系统压力影响量化方法及应用
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摘要
海洋生态系统压力、状态与生态系统服务因素的识别及影响关系分析是实施基于生态系统海洋管理的前提和基础。基于对压力-状态-生态系统服务三者网络化影响关系的认识,本文引入DEMATEL(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique)方法并与DPSER(driver-pressure-state-ecosystem service-response)概念模型结合,进行海洋生态系统压力对状态与生态系统服务影响问题的量化研究。首先对研究范围确定、概念模型选择、分析要素确定及DEMATEL量化方法进行了简要介绍,并对实施基于生态系统海洋管理过程中的压力管理和状态监测等问题进行了探讨。尔后,利用美国南佛罗里达州MARES研究计划提供的相关数据进行了模型的实证分析,结果显示本文方法能够更加系统和全面地反映三者之间的影响关系,多种类型的计算指标可以为基于生态系统海洋管理的有效实施提供有效支撑。
Marine ecosystem pressure,state and service component identification and theirquantitative impacting relationshipanalysis is the premise and foundation to implement marine ecosystem-based management(MEBM).Based on the network characteristics of pressure-state-ecosystem service compoment relationships,DEMATEL(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique) and DPSER(driver-pressure-state-ecosystem service-response) concept model are introducedto analysis the quantitative connectedness among related factors.The determination of spatial scope,selection of conceptual model,quantization method to calculate influence indexes are also discussed in the paper.On this basis,by use of data from MARES(marine and estuarine goal setting project) in south Florida,USA,an empirical analysis was conducted.The results demonstrate that the proposed combined model can effectively handle the target problem,and provide morevaluable information for planning of restoration activities in the studied waters.
Marine ecosystem pressure,state and service component identification and theirquantitative impacting relationshipanalysis is the premise and foundation to implement marine ecosystem-based management(MEBM).Based on the network characteristics of pressure-state-ecosystem service compoment relationships,DEMATEL(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique) and DPSER(driver-pressure-state-ecosystem service-response) concept model are introducedto analysis the quantitative connectedness among related factors.The determination of spatial scope,selection of conceptual model,quantization method to calculate influence indexes are also discussed in the paper.On this basis,by use of data from MARES(marine and estuarine goal setting project) in south Florida,USA,an empirical analysis was conducted.The results demonstrate that the proposed combined model can effectively handle the target problem,and provide morevaluable information for planning of restoration activities in the studied waters.
引文
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[14] ELLIOTT M,BURDON D,ATKINS J P,et al.“And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!”-a unifying framework for marineenvironmental management[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2017,118(1/2):27-40.
[15] SCOTT J.社会网络分析法[M].2版.刘军,译.重庆:重庆大学出版社,2013.
[16] WANG W C,LIN Y H,LIN C L,et al.DEMATEL-based model to improve the performance in a matrix organization[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2012,39(5):4978-4986.
[17] 杜纯,王瑛,汪送,等.集成DEMATEL/ISM 的复杂系统安全事故致因因素分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(22):143-150.
[18] 李春荣,耿涌,薛冰,等.基于DEMATEL的城市可持续发展障碍因素分析-以沈阳市为例[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(10):2836-2842.
[19] 方爱丽,高齐圣,张嗣瀛.网络化DEMATEL方法在产业经济系统分析中的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(5):78-83.
[20] LIN C L,TZENG G H.A value-created system of science (technology) park by using DEMATEL[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(6):9683-9697.
[2] WATKNS J D,GOPNIK M.An ocean blueprint for the 21st century:the work of the U.S.commission on ocean policy[J].Marine technology Society Journal,2005,33(4):19-23.
[3] 刘慧,苏纪兰.基于生态系统的海洋管理理论与实践[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(2):275-284.
[4] CURTIN R,PRELLEZO R.Understanding marine ecosystem based management:a literature review[J].Marine Policy,2010,34(5):821-830.
[5] COOPER P.Socio-ecological accounting:DPSWR,a modified DPSIR framework,andits application to marine ecosystems[J].Ecological Economics,2013,94:106-115.
[6] PROULX S R,PROMISLOW D E L,PHILLIPS P C.Network thinking in ecology andEvolution[J].Trends in Ecology & Evolution,2005,20(6):345-353.
[7] 祁琪,张亦飞,刘弢,等.海洋生态系统压力对状态影响的整体网分析及应用[J].海洋通报,2016,35(3):317-323.
[8] ELLIOTT M.Marine science and management means tackling exogenic unmanaged pressures and endogenic managed pressures-a numbered guide[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2011,62(4):651-655.
[9] COOK G S,FLETCHERB P J,KELBLE C R.Towards marine ecosystem based management in South Florida:investigating the connections among ecosystem pressures,states,and services in a complex coastalsystem[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,44:26-39.
[10] KIDD S,PLATER A,FRID C.海洋规划与管理的生态系统方法[M].徐胜,译.北京:海洋出版社,2013.
[11] EHLER C,DOUVERE F.Marine spatial planning:a step-by-step approachtoward ecosystem-based management[Z].Paris:UNRSCO,2009.
[12] GILLILAND P M,LAFFOLEY D.Key elements and steps in the process of developing ecosystem-based marinespatial planning[J].Marine Policy,2008,32(5):787-796.
[13] COLLIE J S,ADAMOWICZ W L,BECK M W,et al.Marine spatial planning in practice[J].Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2013,117:1-11.
[14] ELLIOTT M,BURDON D,ATKINS J P,et al.“And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!”-a unifying framework for marineenvironmental management[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2017,118(1/2):27-40.
[15] SCOTT J.社会网络分析法[M].2版.刘军,译.重庆:重庆大学出版社,2013.
[16] WANG W C,LIN Y H,LIN C L,et al.DEMATEL-based model to improve the performance in a matrix organization[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2012,39(5):4978-4986.
[17] 杜纯,王瑛,汪送,等.集成DEMATEL/ISM 的复杂系统安全事故致因因素分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(22):143-150.
[18] 李春荣,耿涌,薛冰,等.基于DEMATEL的城市可持续发展障碍因素分析-以沈阳市为例[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(10):2836-2842.
[19] 方爱丽,高齐圣,张嗣瀛.网络化DEMATEL方法在产业经济系统分析中的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(5):78-83.
[20] LIN C L,TZENG G H.A value-created system of science (technology) park by using DEMATEL[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(6):9683-9697.