基于LUCC的南四湖流域面源污染输出风险评估
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摘要
基于1990-2015年土地利用和统计数据,运用输出风险模型、CA-Markov模型及回归模型,结合GIS技术,对南四湖流域的1990-2015年间土地利用覆盖变化情况和面源污染输出风险空间变化情况进行分析,模拟了2020年土地利用变化和输出风险空间分布。结果表明:研究期间,南四湖流域主要的土地利用类型为耕地和建设用地,共占总研究面积的85%以上;TN、TP有明显的风险变化对比,TN风险值分布在0～0.65,TP风险值约在0～0.12之间,氮为流域内主要污染物;在1990-2005年间,TN风险呈先增加后减少的趋势,2010年之后急剧增大。TP风险随着时间的增加一直下降;从空间分布上来看,风险较高的污染区多位于南四湖区以西的平原地带,南四湖东部的山地地区污染风险型较低,多为低风险污染区。较2015年,2020年的未利用地面积变化不大,除建设用地数量增加外,其他用地面积均有不同幅度的减少,TN风险略有减小,TP风险变化不大。为了控制研究区域面源污染的发展,相关部门需把提高农业科技、减少肥料施用作为当下的工作重心,从源头上控制污染发生。
The land cover change and the non-point source pollution output risk in Nansihu Lake Basin during 1990-2015 were analyzed based on the land use data and statistical data. The method of output risk model, CA-Markov model and Regression Model were used, and combined with GIS technology, the land use pattern and the export risk distribution in 2020 were simulated. The results were as follows. In the 25 years, farmland and arable land were the main land use types in the study area, accounting for more than 85% of the total area. The TN and the TP risk changes were significantly different. The TN output risk value ranged between 0-0.65, and the TP output risk value was 0-0.12. N was the main pollutant. The TN risk increased gradually from 1990 to 2005, decreased significantly during 2005-2005, and increased sharply during2010-2015. The TP risk decreased gradually during the 25 years. The low risk areas were mainly distributed in the eastern part of Nansihu Lake basin, while the high risk areas were mainly in the west part of the lake basin. The land use change in 2020 was predicted.Compared with 2015, the arable land is increasing, the area of unused land is unchanged, and the other types are reducing to different degrees. The TN risk is reducing slightly. TP risk is unchanged. It is necessary for the local government to focus on improving the agricultural science and technology and reducing fertilizer use so as to control the status quo of non-point source pollution in Nansihu Lake Basin.
The land cover change and the non-point source pollution output risk in Nansihu Lake Basin during 1990-2015 were analyzed based on the land use data and statistical data. The method of output risk model, CA-Markov model and Regression Model were used, and combined with GIS technology, the land use pattern and the export risk distribution in 2020 were simulated. The results were as follows. In the 25 years, farmland and arable land were the main land use types in the study area, accounting for more than 85% of the total area. The TN and the TP risk changes were significantly different. The TN output risk value ranged between 0-0.65, and the TP output risk value was 0-0.12. N was the main pollutant. The TN risk increased gradually from 1990 to 2005, decreased significantly during 2005-2005, and increased sharply during2010-2015. The TP risk decreased gradually during the 25 years. The low risk areas were mainly distributed in the eastern part of Nansihu Lake basin, while the high risk areas were mainly in the west part of the lake basin. The land use change in 2020 was predicted.Compared with 2015, the arable land is increasing, the area of unused land is unchanged, and the other types are reducing to different degrees. The TN risk is reducing slightly. TP risk is unchanged. It is necessary for the local government to focus on improving the agricultural science and technology and reducing fertilizer use so as to control the status quo of non-point source pollution in Nansihu Lake Basin.
引文
[1]熊兴,江源,任斐鹏,等.东江下游河网区土地利用变化及其对水体的生态影响.自然资源学报, 2010, 25(8):1320-1331.[XIONG X, JIANG Y, REN F P, et al. Land-use change and its ecological effect to the water in downstream river network area of Dongjiang Basin. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(8):1320-1331.]
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[8]张立坤,香宝,胡钰,等.基于输出系数模型的呼兰河流域非点源污染输出风险分析.农业环境科学学报, 2014, 33(1):148-154.[ZHANG L K, XIANG B, HU Y, et al. Risk assessment of non-point source pollution in Hulan River Basin using an output coefficient model. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 2014, 33(1):148-154.]
[9]方广玲,香宝,杜加强,等.拉萨河流域非点源污染输出风险评估.农业工程学报, 2015, 31(1):247-254.[FANG G L,XIANG B, DU J Q, et al. Risk assessment of non-point source pollution export in Lasahe Basin. Transactions of the CSAE, 2015, 31(1):247-254.]
[10]陈学,朱康文,雷波.基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用/覆盖变化模拟.环境影响评价, 2016, 38(4):61-65.[CHEN X,ZHU K W, LEI B. Simulation of land use/cover variation based on the CA-Markov model. Environmental Impact Assessment, 2016, 38(4):61-65.]
[11]何丹,周璟,高伟,等.基于CA-Markov模型的滇池流域土地利用变化动态模拟研究.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2014, 50(6):1095-1105.[HE D, ZHOU J, GAO W, et al. An integrated CA-Markov model for dynamic simulation of land use change in lake Dianchi Watershed. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2014, 50(6):1095-1105.]
[12]黄鹏,袁艳斌,董恒. CA-Markov模型的清江土地利用变化研究.测绘科学, 2017, 42(10):102-109.[HUANG P, YUAN Y B, DONG H. Land use change analysis of Qingjiang River based on CA-Markov model. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2017, 42(10):102-109.]
[13]张晓娟,周启刚,王兆林,等.基于MCE-CA-Markov的三峡库区土地利用演变模拟及预测.农业工程学报, 2017, 33(19):268-277.[ZHANG X J, ZHOU Q G, WANG Z L, et al. Simulation and prediction of land use change in Three Gorges Reservoir Area based on MCE-CA-Markov. Transactions of the CSAE, 2017, 33(19):268-277.]
[14]孟瑶瑶,薛丽芳.南四湖流域土地利用及其景观格局变化分析.水土保持研究, 2017, 24(3):246-252.[MENG Y Y,XUE L F. Analysis on landscape pattern change and land use in Nansi Lake Basin. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2017, 24(3):246-252.]
[15]沈吉,张祖陆,杨丽原,等.南四湖:环境与资源研究.北京:地震出版社, 2008.[SHEN J, ZHANG Z L, YANG L Y, et al. Study on Environment and Resources of Nansi Lakes. Beijing:Seismologic Press, 2008.]
[16] WICKHAM J D, RIITTERS K H, O'NEILL R V, et al. Land cover as a framework for assessing risk of water pollution.Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2000, 36(6):1417-1422.
[17] WICKHAM J D, WADE T G. Watershed level risk assessment of nitrogen and phosphorus export. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2002, 37(12//3):15-24.
[18]孟晓云,于兴修,泮雪芹.云蒙湖流域非点源磷污染时空变化研究.水土保持研究, 2013, 20(4):91-98.[MENG X Y,YU X X, PAN X Q. Spatio-temporal change of non-point source phosphorous pollution in Yunmeng Lake Watershed.Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2013, 20(4):91-98.]
[19]李怀恩,王莉,史淑娟.南水北调中线陕西水源区非点源总氮负荷估算.西北大学学报:自然科学版, 2010, 40(3):540-544.[LI H E, WANG L, SHI S J. Estimation of total nitrogen load from non-point sources in Shanxi Province water source area of the central line of South-North Water Diversion Project. Journal of Northwest University:Natural Science Edition, 2010, 40(3):540-544.]
[20]荆延德,张华美,孙笑笑.基于输出系数模型的南四湖流域非点源污染输出风险评估.水土保持通报, 2017, 37(3):270-274.[JING Y D, ZHANG H M, SUN X X. Risk Assessment of non-point source pollution in Nansi Lake Basin using an output coefficient model. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2017, 37(3):270-274.]
[21]霍明明,张轶莹,陈伟强.基于CA-Markov的土地利用变化及预测研究:以巩义市鲁庄镇为例.中国农学通报,2015, 31(12):279-284.[HUO M M, ZHANG Y Y, CHEN W Q. The land use change and prediction based on CA-Markov model:A case of Luzhuang town, Gongyi city. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2015, 31(12):279-284.]
[2] TIM U S, JOLLY R. Evaluating agricultural nonpoint-source pollution using integrated geographic information systems and hydrologic/water quality model. Journal of Environmental Quality, 1994, 23(1):25-35.
[3]薛利红,杨林章.面源污染物输出系数模型的研究进展.生态学杂志, 2009, 28(4):755-761.[XUE L H, YANG L Z.Research advances of export coefficient model for non-point source pollution. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2009, 28(4):755-761.]
[4]郝芳华,杨胜天,程红光,等.大尺度区域非点源污染负荷计算方法.环境科学学报, 2006, 26(3):375-383.[HAO F H, YANG S T, CHENG H G, et al. The significance difficulty and key technologies of large scale model applied in estimation of non-point source pollution. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2006, 26(3):375-383.]
[5] JOHNES P J. Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters:The export coefficient modelling approach. Journal of Hydrology, 1996, 183(3/4):323-349.
[6] RECKHOW K H, BEAULAE M N, SIMPSON J T. Modeling phosphorus loading and lake response under uncertainty:A manual and compilation of export coefficients. US EPA/440/5-80/011, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 1980:67-88.
[7]刘瑞民,何孟常,王秀娟.大辽河流域上游非点源污染输出风险分析.环境科学, 2009, 30(3):663-667.[LIU R M, HE M C, WANG X J. Risk assessment of nitrogen and phosphorus export in upper reach of Daliao River Watershed. Environmental Science, 2009, 30(3):663-667.]
[8]张立坤,香宝,胡钰,等.基于输出系数模型的呼兰河流域非点源污染输出风险分析.农业环境科学学报, 2014, 33(1):148-154.[ZHANG L K, XIANG B, HU Y, et al. Risk assessment of non-point source pollution in Hulan River Basin using an output coefficient model. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 2014, 33(1):148-154.]
[9]方广玲,香宝,杜加强,等.拉萨河流域非点源污染输出风险评估.农业工程学报, 2015, 31(1):247-254.[FANG G L,XIANG B, DU J Q, et al. Risk assessment of non-point source pollution export in Lasahe Basin. Transactions of the CSAE, 2015, 31(1):247-254.]
[10]陈学,朱康文,雷波.基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用/覆盖变化模拟.环境影响评价, 2016, 38(4):61-65.[CHEN X,ZHU K W, LEI B. Simulation of land use/cover variation based on the CA-Markov model. Environmental Impact Assessment, 2016, 38(4):61-65.]
[11]何丹,周璟,高伟,等.基于CA-Markov模型的滇池流域土地利用变化动态模拟研究.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2014, 50(6):1095-1105.[HE D, ZHOU J, GAO W, et al. An integrated CA-Markov model for dynamic simulation of land use change in lake Dianchi Watershed. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2014, 50(6):1095-1105.]
[12]黄鹏,袁艳斌,董恒. CA-Markov模型的清江土地利用变化研究.测绘科学, 2017, 42(10):102-109.[HUANG P, YUAN Y B, DONG H. Land use change analysis of Qingjiang River based on CA-Markov model. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2017, 42(10):102-109.]
[13]张晓娟,周启刚,王兆林,等.基于MCE-CA-Markov的三峡库区土地利用演变模拟及预测.农业工程学报, 2017, 33(19):268-277.[ZHANG X J, ZHOU Q G, WANG Z L, et al. Simulation and prediction of land use change in Three Gorges Reservoir Area based on MCE-CA-Markov. Transactions of the CSAE, 2017, 33(19):268-277.]
[14]孟瑶瑶,薛丽芳.南四湖流域土地利用及其景观格局变化分析.水土保持研究, 2017, 24(3):246-252.[MENG Y Y,XUE L F. Analysis on landscape pattern change and land use in Nansi Lake Basin. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2017, 24(3):246-252.]
[15]沈吉,张祖陆,杨丽原,等.南四湖:环境与资源研究.北京:地震出版社, 2008.[SHEN J, ZHANG Z L, YANG L Y, et al. Study on Environment and Resources of Nansi Lakes. Beijing:Seismologic Press, 2008.]
[16] WICKHAM J D, RIITTERS K H, O'NEILL R V, et al. Land cover as a framework for assessing risk of water pollution.Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2000, 36(6):1417-1422.
[17] WICKHAM J D, WADE T G. Watershed level risk assessment of nitrogen and phosphorus export. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2002, 37(12//3):15-24.
[18]孟晓云,于兴修,泮雪芹.云蒙湖流域非点源磷污染时空变化研究.水土保持研究, 2013, 20(4):91-98.[MENG X Y,YU X X, PAN X Q. Spatio-temporal change of non-point source phosphorous pollution in Yunmeng Lake Watershed.Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2013, 20(4):91-98.]
[19]李怀恩,王莉,史淑娟.南水北调中线陕西水源区非点源总氮负荷估算.西北大学学报:自然科学版, 2010, 40(3):540-544.[LI H E, WANG L, SHI S J. Estimation of total nitrogen load from non-point sources in Shanxi Province water source area of the central line of South-North Water Diversion Project. Journal of Northwest University:Natural Science Edition, 2010, 40(3):540-544.]
[20]荆延德,张华美,孙笑笑.基于输出系数模型的南四湖流域非点源污染输出风险评估.水土保持通报, 2017, 37(3):270-274.[JING Y D, ZHANG H M, SUN X X. Risk Assessment of non-point source pollution in Nansi Lake Basin using an output coefficient model. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2017, 37(3):270-274.]
[21]霍明明,张轶莹,陈伟强.基于CA-Markov的土地利用变化及预测研究:以巩义市鲁庄镇为例.中国农学通报,2015, 31(12):279-284.[HUO M M, ZHANG Y Y, CHEN W Q. The land use change and prediction based on CA-Markov model:A case of Luzhuang town, Gongyi city. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2015, 31(12):279-284.]